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FUTURES STUDIES Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine Coast University, www.metafuture.org Six Pillars of Foresight Mapping the future Anticipating the future Timing the future Deepening the future Creating alternatives

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futures studies causal layered analysis

FUTURES STUDIESCausal Layered Analysis

Sohail Inayatullah

Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine Coast University,

www.metafuture.org

six pillars of foresight
Six Pillars of Foresight

Mapping the future

Anticipating the future

Timing the future

Deepening the future

Creating alternatives

Transforming the future

slide5
Litany:

- visible

- disconnected news events

  • Systemic:

- social, technological, economic, environmental and political causes

  • Discourses:

- stakeholders

- ideologies

- worldviews

  • Myths-metaphors:

- stories

- legends

- myths of trauma and transcendence

causal layered analysis
Causal Layered Analysis

Newspaper headlines, superficial, common public perceptions

Litany

Social causes

STEEP analysis

Public Unconscious

Superficial Deep Meaning

Cultural/social/religious perspective or worldview

Worldview

Emotional, images or deep meanings

Myth

slide8

CLA

“real”

Litany

REALITY

Social system & structure

Worldview

Myth & Metaphor

“imagined”

TIME

Long term

Short term

cla stakeholders
CLA - Stakeholders

management

Employees

L

O

N

G

T

E

R

M

Unofficial

Official

Stakeholders

cla ideologies
CLA - Ideologies

conservative

L

O

N

G

T

E

R

M

Feminist

Green

Ideologies

Left

cla worldviews
CLA - Worldviews

Indigenous

Confucian

L

O

N

G

T

E

R

M

Islamic

Worldviews

West

cla epistemes
CLA - Epistemes

Post-modern

Pre-modern

L

O

N

G

T

E

R

M

Modern

Ancient

Conventional Epistemes

cla and scenarios matrix
CLA AND SCENARIOS MATRIX

Spaceship Earth

(Technology)

Collapse

(Worst case)

Gaia

(Ecological)

Modernist

(Business as usual)

Litany

Social causes

Worldview

Myth

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

ad