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FUTURES STUDIES Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine Coast University, www.metafuture.org Six Pillars of Foresight Mapping the future Anticipating the future Timing the future Deepening the future Creating alternatives

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Futures studies causal layered analysis l.jpg

FUTURES STUDIESCausal Layered Analysis

Sohail Inayatullah

Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine Coast University,

www.metafuture.org


Six pillars of foresight l.jpg

Six Pillars of Foresight

Mapping the future

Anticipating the future

Timing the future

Deepening the future

Creating alternatives

Transforming the future


Deepening the future causal layered analysis l.jpg

DEEPENING THE FUTURECausal layered analysis


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  • Litany:

    - visible

    - disconnected news events

  • Systemic:

    - social, technological, economic, environmental and political causes

  • Discourses:

    - stakeholders

    - ideologies

    - worldviews

  • Myths-metaphors:

    - stories

    - legends

    - myths of trauma and transcendence


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Causal Layered Analysis

Newspaper headlines, superficial, common public perceptions

Litany

Social causes

STEEP analysis

Public Unconscious

Superficial Deep Meaning

Cultural/social/religious perspective or worldview

Worldview

Emotional, images or deep meanings

Myth


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Causal Layered Analysis


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CLA

“real”

Litany

REALITY

Social system & structure

Worldview

Myth & Metaphor

“imagined”

TIME

Long term

Short term


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CLA - Stakeholders

management

Employees

L

O

N

G

T

E

R

M

Unofficial

Official

Stakeholders


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CLA - Ideologies

conservative

L

O

N

G

T

E

R

M

Feminist

Green

Ideologies

Left


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CLA - Worldviews

Indigenous

Confucian

L

O

N

G

T

E

R

M

Islamic

Worldviews

West


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CLA - Epistemes

Post-modern

Pre-modern

L

O

N

G

T

E

R

M

Modern

Ancient

Conventional Epistemes


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METAPHORS OF THE FUTURE


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CLA AND SCENARIOS MATRIX

Spaceship Earth

(Technology)

Collapse

(Worst case)

Gaia

(Ecological)

Modernist

(Business as usual)

Litany

Social causes

Worldview

Myth

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4


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