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Questioning profundity of digitalization of book: foresight study for Russian book sector

This study explores the profound changes brought about by digitalization in the book sector, focusing on the Russian market. Through deep interviews, expert surveys, and scenario-building, the study examines important trends such as technological advancements, transforming business models, network development, and storage capacities. The results highlight the potential risks and opportunities for book publishers in embracing digitalization.

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Questioning profundity of digitalization of book: foresight study for Russian book sector

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  1. Questioning profundity of digitalization of book: foresight study for Russian book sector • Ilya Kiriya, PhD., professor • National Research University • Higher School of Economics • ikiria@hse.ru EMMA, Bournemouth University, June 2013

  2. PARAMETERS OF SURVEY • Survey was made by Laboratory for media research Faculty of media communications HSE in fall 2012 and has been financed by Federal Agency of press and mass communications • Main methods: • Deep interviews with 12 experts from industry (publishers, distributors, associations) • Expert survey: validating tendencies (trends) on scales of probability, importance for industry, positiveness, identifying drivers and uncertainties • Building scenarios • Basic trends was taken from long-term foresight study and road map made by HSE for whole sector of media, ICT and Communication until 2030 • Method of road maps

  3. MOST IMPORTANT TRENDS Technological Economical Transforming business models Terminal devices Networks of data exchange Growth of aggregation Fail of mediators (editorial function) Storage capacity Constructed on different theoretical bases and forecasts: Webb, Castells, Fagerjord & Storsul, projects of Georgia Tech, OCAD University, IBM and Ifra

  4. TERMINAL DEVICES • Convergence mass communication functions and interactive exchange, mass-self communication (Castells) • Growing computational capacity of devices • Interactivity • Development of fixed home devices toward "added reality" and "virtual reality" (penetrating 3D, 4D, 5D in home) Ofcom

  5. NETWORKS OF DATA EXCHANGE Forecast of traffic evolution in mobile networks • Growing up of broadband capacity • Total connectivity of devices • Total coverage of networks (permanent access from mobile devices) CISCO

  6. STORAGE CAPACITIES Volume of digital universe (eB)) • Growing information volume • Growing of storage capacities Broadcasted and stored content (eB) IDC • Capacity to store all broadcasted information • Access to content instead property for content IJOC

  7. TRANSFORMING BUSINESS MODELS • Redistribution of budgets between business-models of consumer paid and third part paid models • Transforming of advertising formats and redistribution of ad budgets • New genres of advertising WAN/Ifra

  8. GROWING IMPORTANCE OF AGGREGATION • The rise of access incite consumer to choose • Aggregators and searching machines are main "enter points" for consumer • Big volumes stimulate aggregators to make a dumping during buying rights • Advertising is moving towards aggregators IBM

  9. FAIL OF MEDIATORS • Self publication and self distribution is starting to dominate within Internet • Self publication in music, publishing business UGC 1234 eB Professionally produced content 1234 eB ~1000 eB % American Internet users making their own content IDC • Growth of popularity of personal blogs and attiring advertisers E-marketer

  10. MAIN TRENDS FOR BOOK PUBLISHERS

  11. PROFUNDITY OF CHANGES Revenues of American editors of music and newspapers by platforms (bill. USD) • Main question - what the profundity of changes will be? Case of music and newspaper market. Census Bureau

  12. EVALUATION OF MAIN MODELS

  13. EVALUATION OF RISKS

  14. RISKS AND TENDENCIES Most favorable influence Appearing Internet-stores and electronic means for selling Increasing Internet penetration rate Developing e-paper Appearance of self-publication platforms Developing terminal devices for reading (readers) Decreasing interest toward reading practices in favor of other platforms Most significant tendencies Most insignificant tendencies Appearance of online distribution models like Google books Pirated distribution of books Most unfavorable influence

  15. SET OF SCENARIOS

  16. DESCRIPTION OF SCENARIOS

  17. CONCLUSION • As we could find respondents are estimating e-book penetration quite low till 2025. We could say that they are skeptical about big profundity of book digitalization. • At the same time they are much more positive when it concerns western book and publishing market where the share of digital publishing and passing toward self-publishing model is rated much more higher by respondents.

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