Is scotland set to separate
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Is Scotland Set to Separate?. John Curtice whatscotlandthinks.org @ whatscotsthink. Turnout Prospects. Source: Ipsos MORI (Scottish & British Polls). A Little Movement in the Polls?.

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Is Scotland Set to Separate?

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Is scotland set to separate

Is Scotland Set to Separate?

John Curtice

whatscotlandthinks.org

@whatscotsthink


Turnout prospects

Turnout Prospects

Source: Ipsos MORI (Scottish & British Polls)


A little movement in the polls

A Little Movement in the Polls?

Based on 9 polls conducted Feb-May, 10 polls July-Sept, 8 polls Oct-Dec, and 12 polls in Jan/Feb. Don’t Knows excluded.


The post christmas sequence

The Post Christmas Sequence


The don t knows

The Don’t Knows


Squeezing the don t knows

Squeezing the Don’t Knows


Possible changers ipsos mori

Possible Changers – Ipsos MORI

Source: Ipsos MORI


Possible changers icm

Possible Changers - ICM

Source: ICM Research


The cross party transfer

The Cross-Party Transfer


The gender gap

The Gender Gap


Partly a question of identity

Partly a Question of Identity

Source: Ipsos MORI. Based on all voters except DKs


Scotland s future economy

Scotland’s Future - Economy?

Source: ICM Research


Scotland future s equality

Scotland Future’s - Equality

Source: ICM Research


Economy matters much more

Economy Matters (Much) More

Source: ICM Research. Don’t Knows excluded


The gender gap on the economy

The Gender Gap on the Economy

Source: ICM Research


Conclusion

Conclusion

  • Be ready for a high turnout!

  • The referendum race has narrowed a bit

  • But Yes side still face a substantial challenge

    • Although seemingly relatively more inclined to the Yes side, not that many Don’t Knows to be won over

    • Existing Yes vote is seemingly softer – has to avoid ‘losing’ SNP supporters as well as win over Labour ones

    • Those with much sense of British identity seem reluctant to leave the Union

    • Have to win the economic argument – including not least amongst women


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