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Use of non-Party estimates in EMEP modelling: HMs and POPs

Use of non-Party estimates in EMEP modelling: HMs and POPs. Oleg Travnikov EMEP/MSC-E. Requirements to emissions data for modelling. Spatially resolved data for the whole EMEP region Temporal variation of emissions Chemical speciation of Hg; congeners of POPs Height of emission sources

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Use of non-Party estimates in EMEP modelling: HMs and POPs

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  1. Use of non-Party estimates in EMEP modelling: HMs and POPs Oleg Travnikov EMEP/MSC-E

  2. Requirements to emissions data for modelling • Spatially resolved data for the whole EMEP region • Temporal variation of emissions • Chemical speciation of Hg; congeners of POPs • Height of emission sources • Size distribution of emitted particles

  3. Completeness of reported HMs emission totals for 1990-2004 Available EMEP emissions data • Complete datasets of emission totals are available for 20 countries • There is no national emissions data for 9 EMEP countries

  4. Available EMEP emissions data Completeness of reported PAHs emission totals for 1990-2004 • Complete datasets of emission totals are available for 15 countries • There is no national emissions data for 17 EMEP countries

  5. Coverage of EMEP region with emission data for B[a]P (2004) Available EMEP emissions data Coverage of EMEP region with emission data for Pb (2004) Gridded data – 19 countries Gridded data – 14 countries

  6. Gaps of EMEP emissions data Minimum reporting: • Incomplete data on emission totals • Scarce data on spatial distribution Additional reporting: • No data on temporal variation • No data on speciation (Hg, POPs) • No data on height of emission sources • No size distribution of emitted particles

  7. Non-Party emission estimates Heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Hg) • TNO estimates for 2000, 2010 and 2020(Denier van der Gon et al., 2005) • ESPREME project estimates for 2000, 2010 POPs (PAH, PCDD/F, HCB, PCB, HCH) • TNO estimates for 2000, 2010 and 2020(Denier van der Gon et al., 2005) • POPCYCLING-Baltic project estimates (Pacyna et al., 1999) • NILU/Lancaster University estimates (Breivik et al., 2002)

  8. Pb emissions in Europe according to ESPREME estimates (2000) Pb emissions in Europe according to official data (2000) Non-Party emission estimates

  9. Summary • Reported emission inventories for heavy metals and POPs are incomplete and of limited value in terms of model applications • Use of non-Party emission estimates allows filling gaps of official inventories and composing a complete dataset for model application • Regular, reliable and officially approved non-Party estimates are required to supplement national emission data for modelling purposes

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