1 / 26

MA 276: Sports and statistics Lecture 9: Statistics and referee behavior

MA 276: Sports and statistics Lecture 9: Statistics and referee behavior. Goals. Overview of referee literature Responses to cues Effects on game. Tools. Visualizations Natural experiments Linear and logistic regression Differences in Differences Generalized additive models.

uta
Download Presentation

MA 276: Sports and statistics Lecture 9: Statistics and referee behavior

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. MA 276: Sports and statisticsLecture 9: Statistics and referee behavior

  2. Goals • Overview of referee literature • Responses to cues • Effects on game Tools • Visualizations • Natural experiments • Linear and logistic regression • Differences in Differences • Generalized additive models

  3. Pre-lesson activity • Soccer: extra time (Garicano et al) • NFL: sideline (Lopez) • Soccer: empty stadia (Priks)

  4. For your article Read abstract, methods, results, discussion. • Describe goal • Methods and notation • Findings • Practical and statistical significance

  5. Summary Soccer: extra time (Garicano et al)

  6. Summary Soccer: extra time (Garicano et al)

  7. Summary NFL: sideline (Lopez) Generalized additive model: -fixed effect for sideline -useful for non-linear associations by LOS -allows for `wiggliness` -more flexibility

  8. Summary NFL: sideline (Lopez)

  9. Summary NFL: sideline (Lopez)

  10. Summary Natural experiment: serendipitous scenarios in observational data where assignment to treatment approximates a randomized design or a well-controlled experiment -What’s the benefit? Soccer: empty stadia (Priks)

  11. Summary Soccer: empty stadia (Priks)

  12. Summary Soccer: empty stadia (Priks)

  13. Summary Soccer: empty stadia (Priks)

  14. Why referees? • Tasked with making impartial decisions • Testing ground for social biases • Data – lots of it • Unique designs of sport

  15. Why not referees? • Confounded data – examples? • Actionable? • Unique designs of sport

  16. Additional findings, racial bias Price & Wolfers:

  17. Additional findings, racial bias Price & Wolfers:

  18. Additional findings, racial bias Price & Wolfers:

  19. Additional findings, racial bias Price & Wolfers:

  20. Additional findings, racial bias Price & WolfersPart II:

  21. Additional findings, racial bias Racial bias in MLB (Parsons et al): MLB bias potentially overstated (Tainsky)

  22. Additional findings, sequential calls Make-up calls (Lopez & Davis): But why? What does this suggest?

  23. Additional findings, sequential calls Make-up calls (Gift): But why? What does this suggest?

  24. Additional findings, timing matters Timing of NFL penalties (Snyder and Lopez): OHR: Holding, run plays OHP: Holding, pass plays DPI: Defensive pass interference But why? What does this suggest?

  25. Additional findings, monitoring Monitoring improves performance (Mills): But why? What does this suggest? Effects on baseball?

  26. More fun ones Mills: MLB strike zone by position, count Zitzewitz: Favorable Olympic judging Nevill: Crowd noise experiment, ref experience Frank & Gilovich: Uniform color Gift & Rodenberg: Napolean complex

More Related