BAB VI. MANAGING POLITICAL RISK AND NEGOTIATION
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BAB VI. MANAGING POLITICAL RISK AND NEGOTIATION. Tujuan Bahasan. 1 . Membahas bagaimana perusahaan mengevaluasi resiko politik. 2. Metode yang digunakan untuk memanage dan mengurangi resiko politik. 3. Membahas bagaimana proses negosiasi berjalan dan

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BAB VI. MANAGING POLITICAL RISK AND NEGOTIATION

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Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

BAB VI. MANAGING POLITICAL RISK AND NEGOTIATION

Tujuan Bahasan

1. Membahas bagaimana perusahaan mengevaluasi

resiko politik.

2. Metode yang digunakan untuk memanage dan

mengurangi resiko politik.

3. Membahas bagaimana proses negosiasi berjalan dan

pengaruh budaya terhadap negosiasi.

4. Membahas jenis – jenis negosiasi, gaya negosiasi,

metode dan taktik negosiasi.


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

DEFINISI

POLITICAL RISK is the likelihood that MNC’s foreign investment

will be constrained by a host government’s

policies.

  • Resiko yang harus diperhatikan MNC dalam memasuki

  • negara dunia Ketiga (melakukan bisnis) antara lain adalah :

  • belum meningkatkan investasi asing

  • alat produksi produksi (negara dituju dan investor)

Contoh: negara eropa timur, tinggi ketidakstabilannya

sangat berisiko bagi MNC yang akan bisnis disana.


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Daftar kriteria yang digunakan MNC untuk mengevaluasi

Derajad resiko politik

Faktor Eksternal

Kelompok Internal :

  • Prospek konflik asing

  • Hubungan dg batas negara

  • Ketidakstabilan regional

  • Aliansi dg kekuatan regional

  • Sumber-sumber bahan baku utama

  • Pasar asing

  • Kebijakan dengn US

  • Kebijakan US dengan negara

  • Pemerintahan dlm kekuasaan

  • Agen-agen dan kantor kunci

  • Birokrasi-legeslatif

  • Kebijakan ekonomi,keuangan

  • sosial, tenaga kerja dll

  • Sikap sektor swasta

  • Jaringan kerja kekuasaan

Partai-partai politik (didlm dan diluar kekuasaan):

  • Kebijakan-kebijakan

  • Perjuangan kekuasaan internal

  • Wilayah dan sektor-sektor kekuatan

  • Prospek untuk memperoleh dan melepas kekuasaan


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

Kelompok Penting lain :

FaktorInternal

  • Kekuatan perjuangan diantara

  • para etnis

  • Konfrontasi etnik

  • Perjuangan regional

  • Faktor ekonomi (inflasi, harga

  • upah, pengangguran, supply,

  • tax dll)

  • Pergerakan dan gabungan

  • tenaga kerja

  • Militer dan kelpk khusus dlm militer

  • Keluarga

  • Komunitas bisnis dan keuangan

  • Intelegensia

  • Mahasiswa

  • Kelompok Agama

  • Media

  • Pemerintah daerah

  • Aktivis sosial dan lingkungan

  • Budaya, bahasa, kelompok etnis

  • Para separatis

  • Komunitas Asing

  • Pesaing dan Pelanggan


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

Analisis Resiko Politik

  • Macro Political Risk Analysis

    mengulas keputusan-keputusan politik besar yang

    mempepngaruhi seluruh perusahaan di suatu negara.

  • Micro Political Risk Analysis

    mengarah pada kebijakan-kebijakan dan tindakan

    pemerintah yang mempengaruhi sektor-sektor

    ekonomi tertentu atau bisnis asing khusus dalam

    suatu negara.

Kebijakan pemerintah meliputi :

  • peraturan industri

  • Peraturan pajak

  • Hukum-hukum lokal


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

MANAGING POLITICAL RISK

Dalam dua dekade terkahir, bisnis perusahaan mencari

cara untuk mengelola resiko politik. Proses ini diawali

dengan analisa mendetail ttg berbagai resiko politk

yang akan dihadapi MNC’s, meliputi :

  • development of comprehensive frame work

  • Assigns a quantitative risk or rating factor to them

Developing a comprehensive frame work meliputi:

  • memperhatikan/mempertimbangkan resiko politik

  • mengidentifikasi yang paling penting


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SCHMIDT menawarkan 3 dimensi

kerangka kerja Yang meliputi :

  • POLITICAL RISK

  • GENERAL INVESTMENT

  • SPECIAL INVESTMENT


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Political Risk dpt dipecah

jadi 3 bagian :

  • Transfer Risk

    muncul dari kebijakan pemerintah yang membatasi

    modal, pembayaran, produksi, orang dan teknologi

    yang keluar masuk negara.

    Contoh : tarif ekspor/impor, batasan X,M

  • Operational Risk

    diakibatkan adanya kebijakan pemerintah dan

    prosedur-prosedur yang secara langsung membatasi

    manajemen dan kinerja operasi lokal.Contoh : pengen

    dalian harga,keuangan, pajak, komitmen ekspor dan

    local sourcing requirement.

  • Ownership – Control Risk

    diakibatkan dari kebijakan pemerintah atau

    kegiatan yang mengatur kepemilikan atau kontrol

    operasi lokal. Contoh : batasan kepemilikan asing

    batasan partisipasi lokal


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

A Three-Dimensional Framework For Assessing

Political Risk

Special Investment

V

IV

III

II

I

I

High High High

Low Low Low

Conglomerate

Vertical

Horizontal

General Investment

Trsnfer Opersional Ownership Control

Political Risk


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General Nature Of Investment

dibagi 3:

  • Conglomerate Investment

  • Vertical Investment

  • Horizontal Investment


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Conglomerate investment

  • barang-barang dan jasa yang diproduksi

    tidak sama dg yang diproduksi di negara asal

  • tipe investasi ini biasanya tingkat resiko tinggi

Vertical Investment

  • meliputi produksi raw material dan barang setengah

    jadi yang diproses menjadi barang jadi

  • resiko investasi ditanggung pemerintah

  • pemerintah suka bisnia yang membantu

    modal asing

Horizontal Investment

  • memproduksi barang dan jasa yang sama

    dengan yang diproduksi negara asal.

  • investasi ini dibuat untuk memuaskan permintaan

    pasar host country.


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

Special Nature of Investment

Berkaitan dengan kegiatan ekonomi, kecanggihan teknologi

Dan pola kepemilikan.

  • 3 sektor kegiatan ekonomi meliputi :

  • Sektor primer, terdiri dari pertanian,

  • kehutanan, eksplorasi mineral

  • 2. Sektor Industri terdiri dari industri

  • manufaktur dan

  • 3. Sektor Jasa terdiri dari jasa transpotasi,

  • keuangan, asuransi dan related industries.


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

Quantifying the variable in Managing Political Risk

Criteria for quantifying Political Risk

  • Score

  • Min max

  • 314

  • 014

  • 012

  • 59

  • 12

  • 12

  • 3 15

  • 8

  • 2 10

  • 7

  • 3 10

  • 2 10

  • 8

  • 2 8

  • 2 14

  • 4 8

  • 2 14

  • 2 10

  • 10

  • 9

  • 9

  • 9

  • 2 8

Major Area

Political and

Economic environment

Domestic economic

Conditions

External Economic

Relation

  • Criteria

  • Kestabilan sistem politik

  • Konflik internal

  • Ancaman thdp kestab.dunia luar

  • Tingkat pengendalian sistem ekonomi

  • Jaminan kelembagaan

  • Efektivitas administrasi umum

  • Hubungan perburuhan dan kedamaian sosial

  • Jumlah penduduk

  • Income per capita

  • Pertumbuhan ekonomi selama 5 thn terakhir

  • Prospek pertumbuhan 3 thn kedepan

  • Inflasi 2 thn terakhir

  • Ktersediaan high-quality tenaga kerja lokal

  • Kemungkinan memberi kesemptn kerja t.k asing

  • Ketersediaan sumber energi

  • Legalitas perlindungan lingkungan

  • Traffic system and communication

  • Batasan impor

  • Batasan ekspor

  • Batasan investasi asing dlm negri

  • Kebebasan membuat partneship

  • Perlindungan legal akan brand and product

  • Batasan transfer keuangan


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

Formulating Appropriate Responses

  • Ada 2 pendekatan :

  • Relative Bargaining Power

  • Perusahaan bekerja untuk memperoleh posisi

  • bargaining yang lebih kuat di host country.

B

A

R

G

A

I

N

N

G

P

O

W

E

R

Subsidiary’s bargaining power

High

D

  • E

B

  • C

Host nation’s

Bargaining power

  • A

.

Low

Initial

investment

Time


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

  • Integrative and Protective and Defensive Technique

  • Integrative Technique dirancang untuk membantu

  • Operasi overseas menjadi bagian dari infrastruktur

  • Host country, meliputi :

  • Membangun hubungan baik dg pemerintah

  • dan kelompok politik lokal

  • Memproduksi sebanyak mungkin produk dg

  • menggunakan supplier dan subkontraktor lokal

  • shg menjadi produk domestik.

  • Membangun joint venture dan rekrut tenaga lokal

  • Lakukan sebanyak mungkin R&D lokal

  • Membangun hubungan manajemen tenaga kerja

  • yang efektif.


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

MANAGING INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATION

Definisi

Negotiation is the process of bargaining with one or more

parties for the purpose of arrive at a solution

that is acceptable to all.

(Hodgetts and Luthans, 168)

Negotiationis a process in which two or more parties who

have both common interest and conflicting

interest put forth and discuss explicit

proposals concerning specific terms of

a possible agreement.. (Gordon)


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

PROSES NEGOSIASI

Ada beberapa langkah dasar yang dapat digunakan dalam

Proses memenaj negosiasi.

Langkah-Langkah Negosiasi (Hodget-Luthans,169)

  • Planning

  • 1). Setting of limits on single point objective

  • 2). Dividing issues into short and long-term

  • concideration and deciding how to

  • handle each.

  • 3). Determining the sequence in which to discuss

  • the various issues.

  • Interpersonal Relationship Building

  • Exchanging task-Related Information


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

lanjutan

  • Persuasion

  • The success of persuasion step often depends on :

  • 1) how well the parties understand each other’s positions.

  • 2) the ability of each to identify areas similarity and

  • differences.

  • 3) the ability to create new options and

  • 4) the willingness to work toward a solution that allows

  • all parties to walk away that they have achieved their

  • objectives.

  • Agreement

  • The final phase of negotiations is the granting of

  • concessions and the hammering out of a final

  • agreement .

  • Agreement depends on cultural differences


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

Prosess Negosiasi

Four Basic Steps (Gordon) :

  • Preparation

  • Mengupulkan informasi (ttg pihak lain, barang

  • jasa yang diminta).

  • Menetapkan target (keputusan secara detail yang

  • dibutuhkan).

  • Evaluation Of Alternatives

  • Setiap pihak mencoba mengidentifikasi wilayah

  • tawar (bargaining range) ttg kemungkinan apa yang

  • dapat memuaskan kedua belah pihak.

  • Setiap pihak juga menentukan alternatif apa yang

  • dapat disediakan untuk pihak alain apabila

  • perjanjian/ kesepakatan tidak dapat dicapai.


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

Style and Behaviour of Negotiation

  • Submissive (passive) behaviour

    backing down complaint

    reluctant to impose yourself yielding

    accomodating unreststing

  • Aggressive Behaviour

    Violent forcefull

    fighting quarell some

    exerting pressure pregnacions

  • Assertive Behaviour

    not trying to dominate

    insistent to positive


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

TWO MAJOR TYPES OF NEGOTIATIONS

  • DISTRIBUTIVES

  • Most commonly used type of negotiation

  • based on idea that everytime one party wins, the other must

  • give up something.

  • 2. INTEGRATIVES

  • A cooperative negotiation strategy

  • Based on the idea that both parties gain

  • As a result of the negotiation.

  • To be effective this type of negotiation , requires :

  • 1). Both parties to have a strong desire to seek an agreement

  • that meet the need of both parties.

  • 2). A problem-solving approach rather than a desire to win

  • at any cost to the other party.

  • 3). A level of trust that allows information to be shared

  • openly and honesty (win-win situatin).


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

NEGOTIATION STRATEGIES

  • Three basic strategies

  • Competition

  • One party seek to gain at the expense of the other

  • One or both parties likely to use a variety of

  • strategies- secrecy, treats, lies.

  • Collaboration

  • each party take a problem solving approach

  • look for that satisfy both parties.

  • Sub-ordination

  • one party deliberately sub ordinates own goal

  • to avoid conflict with other party.


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

SKILL OF INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATOR

  • To be sensitive to the cultural background of others

  • and adjust the proposals to the cultural limitations

  • and contraints.

  • Patience

  • Ability to see the world from the perspective of others

  • and to understand others’ behaviour from

  • their perspective.

  • Ability to express proposal atc, so that peopple on

  • the other side of the negotiations have accurate

  • understanding of proposals.

  • Ability to manage stress and cope with ambigious

  • situational and unpredictable demands.

  • Ability to demonstrate the advantages of the

  • proposals so that people on the other side can see

  • the advantages clearly.

Harries,P.R.& Moran,R.T. (1991) Managing

Cultural Differences 3rd edition, Houtson,

Texas : Gulf Publishing, p 59)


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

Perbedaan budaya mempengaruhi Negosiasi

Negotiation Styles from a cross-cultural perspectiv

South America

Emotiona sensitivity valued

Emotionally passionate

Great power plays; use of

Weakness.

Loyalty to employer (who is

Often family).

Decision come down from

One individual.

Face-saving crusial in decision

Making to preserve honor,

Dignity.

Execution of special interests

Of decision maker expected,

Condoned.

Argumentative when right or

Wrong; passionate.

Impatient with documentation

As obstacle to understanding

General principles.

Impulsive, spontaneuos

Decision Making.

North American

Emotional sensitivity

Not highly valued

Dealing straight forwardly

Or impersonally.

Litigation not as much as

conciliation.

Lack of commitment to

Employer;breaking of ties

By either if necessary.

Teamwork provides input

To a decision maker.

Decision made on a cost-

Benefit basis; facing-saving

Daes not always matt er.

Decision maker influenced

By special interest, which

Often is not concidered

Ethical.

Argumentative when right

Or wrong,but impersonal.

Japanese

Emotional sensitivity

Highly valued

Hiding of emotions

Subtle power plys;conci-

liation

Loyalty to employer;em-

Ployer takes care of its

Employees.

Group decision making

concensus.

Face-saving crucial; deci-

Sion often made on basis

Of saving someone from

Embarrassment.

Decision makers openly

Influenced by special

Interest.

Not argumentatives;quiet

When right.

What is down in writing

Must be accurate


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

Negotiation tactics

  • Location

  • Time limits

  • Buyer-seller relations

  • Bargaining Behaviour

  • Penelitian menunjukka bahwa keuntungan meningkat

  • karena para negosiator :

  • Membuat tawaran awal tinggi

  • Menanyakan banyak pertanyaan

  • Tidak membuat komitmen verbal sampai akhir proses

  • negosiasi.


Mi 6 powerpoint presentation

Bargaining Behaviour

  • Penggunaan perilaku ekstrim

  • Berjanji, mengancam,

  • dan perilaku lain

  • 3. Perilaku nonverbal


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