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Climate Change and Transportation and Land Use Planning

Climate Change and Transportation and Land Use Planning. John P. Poorman October 2006 jpoorman@cdtcmpo.org. Can transportation and land use planning mitigate the rate of global climate change?. 1. We must respect the laws of physics, economics, politics and household behavior.

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Climate Change and Transportation and Land Use Planning

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  1. Climate Change and Transportation and Land Use Planning John P. Poorman October 2006 jpoorman@cdtcmpo.org

  2. Can transportation and land use planning mitigate the rate of global climate change?

  3. 1. We must respect the laws of physics, economics, politics and household behavior.

  4. 2. What is possible is not always probable; what is improbable is not necessarily impossible.

  5. 3. Public policy typically seeks to accomplish a goal while simultaneously preserving the status quo.

  6. 4. American preference is to look to technology for solutions that preserve the status quo.

  7. 5. Significant technological change comes unexpectedly and carries unintended consequences.

  8. 6. Household behavior is remarkably consistent – if observed at the level of core relationships.

  9. Can transportation and land use planning mitigate the rate of global climate change?

  10. GHG Emission Reductions • State Energy Plans: 18 – 33% • Arizona: 72% from policy; 28% planning • Todd Litman • “Win-win” strategies: 26 – 62% split between policy and planning.

  11. US Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan: Transportation Sector 10-20 years 20-40 years 40-60 years

  12. In sum • Separate can from will • Distinguish mitigate climate change from mitigate impacts of climate change • Separate market, policy and planning • Respect “truths” in judging potential benefits and outcomes

  13. In sum • Conclusions • Policy greater tool to mitigate climate change. • Policy, planning may help adjust to climate change. May need long lead time. • Market forces may lag – good to help adjust to but weak ally in mitigating climate change.

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