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A Knowledge Based Approach to Community Planning. Dr. Patricia Byrnes Patrick Curry Arwiphawee Srithongrung. What does Dilbert have to say?. What is Planning?.
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A Knowledge Based Approach to Community Planning Dr. Patricia Byrnes Patrick Curry Arwiphawee Srithongrung
What is Planning? • Planning consists of defining the important objectives an organization needs to achieve and determining how it plans to achieve them.
Purposes and Types of Planning • Strategic Visioning • Identify and describe widely held values and use them as a platform setting goals. • Strategic Planning • To set the direction of the organization to improve its prospects for long-term survival. • Operational Planning • The tactical details of how an organization is to be run over a short period of time • Project Planning • Detailed identification and sequencing of all tasks to complete a project.
Problems with Planning • No mechanism exists for recognizing the difference between reality and predictions • Goals are set arbitrarily • Failure to focus on high-leverage goals • Planned activities are not designed to accomplish goals • There is no “Shared Vision” of the organizations future
Essential Definitions • Data - recorded observations of real world phenomena • Information - level of knowledge needed to solve a problem or show patterns • Intelligence - essential factors selected from information and data • Knowledge - total concept of data, information, and intelligence with feedback loop
Process for Identifying Data Needs • Define the problem • Decide on the geographic scope and detail • Pinpoint and define the specific variables (data) you will need • Establish the time period(s) for which you need the data • Decide on the presentation methods (tables, charts, maps, or a combination) • Establish cost and quality parameters for the data
What do Economic Developers Do • Create employment opportunities • Increase wealth and income • Increase the tax base How do they do it • Retention and expansion of existing businesses • Attract new business • Support entrepreneurship • Other…
Population losses experienced in recent decades are likely to continue. • Population reached a peak in 1920 (41,403) since 1920 the county experienced losses each Census except 1970 to 1980 • The current population is 28,900 excluding the prison • Projections show slight declines of less than 1% over the next five years • The rate of migration is very low, not many new faces in town!
Population Pyramids With Prison Population Without Prison Population Male Female The 65+ population is large but declining Baby Boomers –Will they stay or go? Brain Drain School age children will slowly decline
An increasing number of workers are crossing county boundaries to find employment. • Your neighbor, Macoupin County, is now a metro county. • Commuting is a two way street. The number of workers commuting into Montgomery county increased at the same time the number of persons commuting outside the county increased.
The labor force is growing even though the county population is shrinking. • More residents work now than ever before primarily because of the age structure of the population and an increase in the proportion of females working. • BUT the County still has a relatively low labor force participation rate when compared with the rest of Illinois.
The number of full and part-time jobs has increased in recent years but long term has tracked national cycles.
The labor force has many characteristics indicating the area may not be attractive to the employers of the future • Educational attainment level are improving but are still below averages for rural Illinois and the State. • In particular the proportion of college educated persons is low, less than one half the Illinois average. • The prison population is included! • Occupation?????
The structure of the economy has changed dramatically over the last 20 years. • Montgomery County’s economy reflects national trends with fewer workers producing more output • Basic industries, those exporting products and importing income, are agriculture, mining, and communication and public utilities. • Natural resource industries, including mining and agriculture, experienced dramatic declines in employment in the 1990’s • The service sector of the economy emerged as the dominant sector in the 1990’s
Montgomery County These charts illustrate the extraordinary differences in the economic base of Montgomery County and Illinois. Note the dominance of natural resource industries in Montgomery compared to finance and services in Illinois. Illinois
The housing stock is old and housing values are low. • 47% of housing units were constructed prior to 1950 compared to 40% for Rural Illinois and 32% for the State • Lowest median value for owner occupied housing ($54,767) when compared with neighboring counties ($64,366), Rural Illinois ($70,504), and the State ($130,829)
The low income profile will influence many facets of the county economy and institutional infrastructure. • All measures of personal income are below those for neighboring counties, rural Illinois, and Illinois. Poverty rates are above the State average. • Diminished buying power and disposable income will restrict growth in retail sales. • The willingness to invest in local institutions like schools, parks, health care, and infrastructure may also be limited. • Local financial resources for investment in entrepreneurial endeavors may also be limited.
What does it all mean? • Montgomery County’s future is as dependent on what happens in the surrounding counties as it is on what happens at home. • In the next five years the county is likely to continue to experience population decline and erosion of buying power because of low incomes. • Strategy development should focus on population growth and increasing per capita incomes. • Although many jobs have been created in the County they are primarily in the service sector where wages are low and benefits limited. • Reversing long term structural changes in the local economy and work force will take time.
