1 / 60

Update on the RFE Energy Sector and the RFE LEAP Modelling Effort

Update on the RFE Energy Sector and the RFE LEAP Modelling Effort. Olga DEMINA , Natalia LOMAKINA, Alexey NOVITSKIY Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Khabarovsk, Russia. 2010 East Asian Science and Security Project Meeting

trinh
Download Presentation

Update on the RFE Energy Sector and the RFE LEAP Modelling Effort

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Update on the RFE Energy Sector and the RFE LEAP Modelling Effort Olga DEMINA, Natalia LOMAKINA, Alexey NOVITSKIY Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Khabarovsk, Russia 2010 East Asian Science and Security Project Meeting “Energy Futures and Energy/Minerals Cooperation in the Northeast Asia Region” September 22-24, 2010, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

  2. Outline 1. RFE’s Energy Sector: Current Status, Energy Demand & Supply Trends 2. Recent National and Regional Energy Policy Initiatives and Priorities 3. Large-Scale Energy Projects in the Far East of Russia 4. Russia and Far East Nuclear Power Sector 5. RFE Team’s LEAP Activities

  3. 1. RFE’s Current Status, Energy Demand & Supply Trends

  4. National Energy Sector: main trends in between the two crisis periods • Energy sector share in the russian economy (2008): about 25% of GDP, more than 48% of total taxes, more than 68% in total export income and 28% in total investments. • GDP Energy intensity decline (2000-2008): total GDP growth 65%, extraction and production of energy resources growth - 26%, energy intensity of GDP - 66,9%. • Positive production growth rates (2000-2008 ): increase in production of major energy resources – coal by 68 mln ton (26,4%), oil by 164 mln ton (50,6%), natural gas by 80 bln cubic m (13,7%). • Strengthening of external incentives for development (2000-2008): Domestic consumption of energy grew 10%, energy exports volume 1,5 times (from 545,4 mln tce to 813 mln tce).

  5. Energy sector of Russian Far East.Characteristics of Energy and Fuel Supply Macro-structure • Energy consumption is relatively small by size and spread over large territory; • Increased transaction costs for production and supply of energy; • Independent supply and consumption within many local territories; • Lack of developed transit and distribution infrastructure; • Energy consumption structure is relatively diversified but primarily based on coal; • Limited choice opportunities for energy consumers; • Prefferability of monopoly structures in the supply sector.

  6. Far East energy sector.Major energy production centers • Sakha republic (Yakutia) (bituminous coal, natural gas) • Sakhalin region (oil, natural gas) • Amursky region (hydro energy)

  7. Far East Energy Sector.Major export commodities • Coking coal and steam coal of South Yakutia • Sakhalin oil • Oil products of Khabarovsky region refinery plants • Amur region electricity supplies to border regions of China.

  8. Energy Supply in the Russian Far East: Current Trends * % to previous year

  9. Major energy resources extraction dynamics in the Far East2000-2008

  10. Structure of installed capacityRussia vs Russian Far East

  11. Final Energy Consumption structure by type of energy 2000vs2008

  12. Power Plant Fuel Consumption structure by type of fuel in 2002, 2007—2008. Russia Far East

  13. Emissons of pollutants into atmosphere as result of fuel based power and heat production 2008 (thousand ton)

  14. Positive trends in the development of Far East Energy Sector(2004-2008) • New electricity generating capacity added: Bureyskaya HPP, 4th unit of Khabarovsk CHP-3,Mobile gas turbine plant at VladivostokCHP-2. A network of transmission lines 500 kW. • Settled structure of strategic companies-operators and baseline terms for operation of the basic regional fuel and energy markets. • GDP growth does not lead to high demand of energy. The balance of energy output and capacity in the Eastern United Power Grid and local energy systems is satisfactory. • Improved balance of supply and demand of boiler and furnace fuels

  15. Strategic Problems • Technological and economical isolation of Far East energy systems from the national energy and capacity markets is unchanged. Mechanisms of strategic control over energy sector are at the stage of development. • Deterioration (wearoff) of energy equipment and facilities (about 70% of equipment is physically and technologically old). • Unstable operation of community energy services • Isolated energy supply in northern regions of Far East,caused by geographic and economic conditions, lowers the economic efficiency and technological stability of energy supply. • Lack of deep consideration of regional development problems during the implementation of large-scale projects, with regard to the pacific direction of energy resources export.

  16. Economic crisis impact on FE energy sector • Electricity consumption decline in Russia – by 4.7%, in Far East – by 1.65% and dynamics was mixed, depending on the region. Recovery since late 2009. • Production of major energy resources in 2008 compared to 2007: oil – reduced by 11%, gas – increased by 21%, coal – up by 4%.

  17. 2. Recent National and Regional Energy Policy Initiatives and Priorities

  18. The system of official strategic and program documents • General social & economic development strategies and programs • in the Far East OTHER: • Scheme of the complex development of productive forces, transport and energy of Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) until 2020 (approved 2007) • Strategy for economic & social development of the Far East and Baikal region up to 2025 – approved December, 2009 • Federal Program for Social and Economic Development of the Far East and Trans-Baikal area up to 2013 (underway since 2008)

  19. The system of official strategic and program documents 2. Energy related development strategies and programs NATIONAL LEVEL ENERGY STRATEGY OF RUSSIA UNTIL 2030 (APPROVED NOVEMBER 13, 2009) General scheme of the gas industry development until 2030 (under development) General scheme of electric power industry installations until 2020 (approved!) General scheme of development of the oil industry 2020 (under development) National Energy Efficiency Program (waiting approval) Strategy for development of nuclear power industry of Russia until 2007-2015 (approved 2007) REGIONAL LEVEL involving FAR EAST Eastern Gas Program Program of creation of the unified system of gas production, transport and gas supply in East Siberia and the Far East with potential gas export to the markets of China and other APR countries (approved 2007) Program of long-term development of Far East energy sector until 2020 (under development) Strategy for development of electric power industry in the Far East until 2020-2025 (not yet approved) Corporate Strategies and Programs

  20. NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY PRIORITIES MAIN DOCUMENT: ENERGY STRATEGY OF RUSSIA UNTIL 2030 ONE OF MAJOR PRIORITIES:“Eastern orientation” • Diversify energy export destinations and commodity structure  • Oil export share to APR will rise from 8 to 15% by 2022 • Gas export share – from 0% to 16% • New Oil and Gas processing in the Far East (Yakutia, Primorsky region, Sakhalin) 2) International cooperation and strengthening positions of national companies abroad • Joint exploration, extraction, processing and distribution: ROSNEFT, LUKOIL, GAZPROM & CNPC, SINOPEC, KOGAS, KNOC, etc. • Asset swapping approach (?) 3) Energy efficiency • Decrease GDP energy intensity by 40% in 2007-2020 4) Increase the share of renewable energy (in the total electricity production from 0.5% to 4.5% by 2030) 5) Switching to export of final energy products rather than raw

  21. ENERGY EFFICIENCY as a national priority • MAIN DOCUMENT: FEDERAL LAW ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY • (NOV 23, 2009) • NATIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROGRAM UNTIL 2020 • (not yet approved) REGIONAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROGRAMS in regions of FAR EAST are under development! SUPPLY SIDE EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS COAL PP 34  38% GAS PP 38  50% NUCLEAR PP 32  34% Decrease overall tce/kWth 335  300 g COAL GASIFICATION technology More gas turbines with 51-57% efficiency Decrease Electricity Transmission Loss 13  10%

  22. Far East Energy Demand: prospective changesExpected new large-scale projects • Amur region • National space port • Ore Mining and Smelting Plant • Oil Refinery • Aluminium plant • Olekmin hydrometallurgical processing plant • ESPO expansion (including branch to China) • Kuranah iron ore deposit • Cement plant • Jewish Autonomous region • Kimkan-Sutar iron ore deposit • Bridge over Amur river • Timber processing facilities • Magadan region • Natalka,Degdekan, Pavlik, Igumen deposits • Yano-Kolim gold mining area • Several mining facilities • Sakhalin island • Cement plant • Metal processing facilities • Oil and Gas Processing facilities • Primorsky region • Russkiy island projects • Oil refinery (Nakhodka city area) • ESPO - 2nd part • Kozmino oil port facilities • Yakutia • Oil and Gas deposits (Talakan, Chayanda) • Elga coal deposit • ElkonUranium deposit • Kuranah and other iron ore deposits • Khabarovsky region • Khabarovsk and Komsomolsk oil refinery expansion • Oil processing facilities • Coal enrichment plant • Ore enrichment facilities • Cellulose plant

  23. RFE Energy Cooperation with China

  24. RFE Energy Cooperation with Japan

  25. RFE Energy Cooperation with ROK

  26. Sakhalin projects • ESPO pipeline • Taishet-Skovorodino (stage 1) – complete! • Skovorodino-Kozmino (stage 2) – under construction • Skovorodino-China border – complete! • Eastern Gas Program  in the Far East - 2 major gas pipelines • Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok • Yakutia – Khabarovsk • Vladivostok-Korean Peninsula – ??? • Gas processing, gas liquidation and chemical processing facilities (Yakutia, Primorye) • “Elga” large coal deposit (Yakutia) • Electricity exports to China 3. Major Large-Scale Energy Projects in the East of Russia

  27. Sakhalin-1 • Deposits: Chaivo, Odoptu, Arkutun-Dagi (oil - 300 mln tons, gas – 485 bln cub m) • Participants: ExxonMobil (30 %), ROSNEFT, ONGC (20 %), SODECO (30 %) • Chaivo oil and gas production started in October 2005; oil exports – since October 2006 • Since 2007 – oil production at full capacity • Currently: Oil exported to Japan, South Korea; Gas supplied to Khabarovsky region • 2009: total produced oil 8,2 mln ton, gas 9,4 bln cub m; Target for 2010 – 7,5 mln ton • Expectations: Odoptu start of oil production – end of 2010 (up to 1.5 mln t/y); Arkutun-Dagi – since 2014.

  28. Sakhalin-2 • Deposits: Piltun-Astohsky and Lunsky oil & gas fields (oil - 176 mln tons, gas - 618 BCM) • Shareholders: Gasprom (50%+1), Royal Dutch Shell (27.5% minus 1), Mitsui (12.5%), Mitsubishi (10%) • Since December 2008 - oil extraction is year-round; for 2010 target ~7 mln ton • Feb 2009 – first LNG production line was launched, May 2009 – second line was launched, current LNG capacity 9,6 mln t/y • Since March 2009 – LNG is exported (long-term contracts ~25 years) mainly to Japan (~60%), ROK, but also to China, India, Kuwait, Taiwan • 3rdproduction line or 2nd LNG plant are under consideration

  29. Other Sakhalin offshore • Sakhalin-3 • Veninsky block - currently: exploration (ROSNEFT + SINOPEC) - 165 mln t and 313 BCM • Kirinsky gas deposit – geological exploration by Gazprom, start of gas production in 2011 • Sakhalin-4 (West-Shmidtovsky block) • In March 2009 ROSNEFT & BP returned license after unsuccessful drilling - deposits not discovered yet • Sakhalin-5 (Kaigano-vasyukansky & East-Shmidtovsky) • East-Shmidtovsky: In 2009 after conducting geological analysis ROSNEFT & BP returned license without drilling – deposits not discovered yet • Kaigano-vasyukansky: geological exploration (ROSNEFT & BP) – 56 mln ton of oil and 30 BCM of gas discovered so far – not enough for commercial extraction • Sakhalin-6 (Pogranichny block) • Western shelf of Kamchatka peninsula (ROSNEFT & KNOC) • In 2009 licenses for exploration granted to Gazprom – Sakhalin-3 (Kirinsky, Ayashsky, West-Odoptinsky blocks)

  30. Khabarovskiy Krai Magadanskaya Oblast’ Magadan offshore area Khabarovsk offshore area Sea of Okhotsk SAKHALIN-5 Vostochno-Shmidtovskiy Western Kamchatka place Kamchatskaya Oblast’ SAKHALIN-4Zapadno-Shmidtovskiy SAKHALIN-5Kaigansko-Vasyukanskiy Kamchatkaoffshore area Odoptu Vostochno-Odoptinskiy SAKHALIN-3 Arkutun-Dagi SAKHALIN-1 Ayashskiy Chaivo Veninskiy Хабаровский край Kirinskiy Sakhalin SAKHALIN-6 Far East Offshore Oil & Gas Projects SAKHALIN-2 Pil’tun-Astokhskoe PACIFIC OCEAN Lunskoe

  31. Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean Oil Pipeline (ESPO) 1st STAGE – completed in 2009 • Route: Taishet (Irkutsky region) – Skovorodino (Amursky region) • Capacity is 30 mln ton/y • Current operating capacity – 15 mln ton/y • Currently transported to Kozmino by RAIL for export to Japan, Korea. 2nd STAGE – will be completed by 2014 (till then – by RAIL) • Route: Skovorodino (Amursky region) – Kozmino Oil Port (Primorsky krai) – 2100km • Overall ESPO capacity is 30 mln t/y, possibly up to 50 • Expansion of Kozmino Oil Port Branch to China • In 2009 oil export contract signed for 15 mln /t for 20 years since 2011 • Skovorodino-China Border - complete in August 2010 • Daqing (China) -China Border – will complete in October 2010 • Start of operation – November 2010

  32. Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean Pipeline

  33. Eastern Gas Program Creation of integrated system for producing and transporting gas in East Siberia and Russia's Far East with the possibility of exporting gas to China and other Asia-Pacific countries • Underway since September 2007 • 4 centers of gas extraction: Northern Sakhalin, South-Western Yakutia, Irkutsk area and Krasnoyarsk area • In the Far East - 2 major pipelines • Gasification of Far East territory (local gas pipeline networks) • Gas Liquidation and Processing Centers (Yakutia, Sakhalin, Primorsky region) • Large expansion of gas exports eastwards

  34. Eastern Gas Program (underway since 2007) Ultimately - export of ~50 BCMof natural gas to China and Republic of Korea

  35. Eastern Gas Program: Planned Gas Pipelines 1. Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok • Construction started in July 2009 • Will start operation in Q3 2011 , Capacity - 6 BCM m3 • Full expected capacity – 35 BCM by 2016 • Primary Source: Sakhalin-3 (Kirinsky block, Gazprom) – since 2014 • Primarily for domestic demand of Far East • 2. Yakutia-Khabarovsk • Will be constructed in 2012-2016 and joined with Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline • Capacity: up to 25 BCM • Primary Source: Chayanda gas deposit in Yakutia, start supply in 2016 • Gas supply primarily for exports *Vladivostok-Korea Peninsula pipeline project (Gazprom & Kogas signed agreement in 2009, route research is underway)

  36. “Elga” Coal Deposit • Coking coal deposit of 2 billion ton • License granted to “Mechel” • By 2011 “Mechel” will complete the construction of railroad access – 315 km, $1.3 bln • Production will start in late 2010 • Target for 2011 – 1 mln ton, since 2013 – 9 mln ton • By 2018 will reach final output target of 27 mln t/y

  37. Prospective Electricity Exports CHINA • In 2006 – 523 million kWth, then paused from Feb 2007-March 2009 • In 2009 - 800 million kWth exported • In 2010 forecast – 1 billion kWth • From 2013 – 4-5 billion kWth • By 2020 – up to 60 billion kWth OTHER • PRIMORSKY REGION - KOREAN PENINSULA • SAKHALIN- JAPAN Gas Turbine Power Plant, export via cable under sea

  38. LARGE-SCALE ELECTRICITY EXPORT TO CHINA Possible export volume – 60-70 billion kWh in 2020

  39. 4. Russia and Far East Nuclear Power Sector

  40. Russia’s Nuclear Power Sector Bilibinskaya NPP • (2008)Russia: 10 NPPs, 31 power units with total capacity of 23,3 GW (10.3% that of Russia), electricity production of 163.1 bln kWh (15.7% that of Russia) • 15 Pressurized water reactors (9 VVER-1000 & 6 VVER-440) • 15 Boiling Water Reactors (Channel type, 11 RMBK-1000 & 4 EGP-6) • 1 Fast Breeder Reactor BN-600

  41. Single small Russia’s NPP of public utility Provides ~30% of electricity & heat supplies in Chukotka, ~0.4 % of those in the RFE Actual Capacity Factor 39.1%, 4 EGP-12 reactors (G-I) were commissioned over 1974-1976 Bilibinskaya NPP – CHP • Lifetime period of the units as designed had to be completed in 2004-2006 • After auditing the lifetime period was prolonged up to 2019-2021 (subject to unit) • Based on the Federal Program on Nuclear Energy Sector Development up to 2015 it is scheduled to decommission BNPP over 2019-2021

  42. Nuclear Energy Development in the RFE • Based on General Plan for Electric Power Industry up to 2020 it is planned to construct two NPPs in the RFE over 2016-2020 • Pevekskaya Floating NPP with 70 MW (KLT-40S) to replace Bilibinskaya NPP in Chukotskiy Autonomous Okrug • Primorskaya NPP with 600 MW (2 x VBER-300) to meet the increase in domestic power & electricity demand • Primorskaya NPP could be constructed by IPP to supply New aluminum plant planned in Primorskiy Krai • Up to 2016 in Russia it is planned to produce 7 KLT floating reactors.

  43. Pevekand CherskyFloating NPPs • Capacity 70 MW ×4 • Expected period of construction 2016-2020

  44. Floating NPP • Length: 140, Width: 30, Height: 10 • Construction period: 4 years • Capacity: 70 MWt (power), 50 MWt (heat) • Power Output: 455 mlnkWt/y • Heat Output: 350 000 Gcal/y

  45. Yakutia The investment plans of placing Floating NPP at 4 sites: • Tiksi; • Ust-Kuiga; • Chersky; • Yurung-Khaya

  46. Floating NPP comparative efficiency

  47. Elkon uranium ore deposit • Estimated capacity up to 5,000 tons of uranium per year. • Investment in the project are estimated at 90.5 billion rubles • Construction on the field will start in late 2010 - early 2011.

  48. 5. RFE Team’s LEAP Activities

More Related