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Synthetic data, microsimulation and socio-demographic forecasting

Synthetic data, microsimulation and socio-demographic forecasting. Mark Birkin School of Geography Professor of Spatial Analysis and Policy. Introduction. Value of synthetic approaches Population reconstruction – estimation of individual profiles and relationships for small areas

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Synthetic data, microsimulation and socio-demographic forecasting

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  1. Synthetic data, microsimulation and socio-demographic forecasting Mark BirkinSchool of GeographyProfessor of Spatial Analysis and Policy

  2. Introduction • Value of synthetic approaches • Population reconstruction – estimation of individual profiles and relationships for small areas • Synthetic linkage • Comparative statics and what-if analysis • Dynamics, projection and forecasting • Platform for agent-based simulation, evolutionary modelling and environmental interactions

  3. The Consumer Data Research Centre The CDRC Vision • Unlock the research / commercial potential of consumer data • Render consumer data safe to use • Stimulate high impact research projects • Collaborative and integrated approach to training and capacity building • Create conditions for the preservation of legacy retail data

  4. Method Method Sample Population Constraint tables Population created using spatial microsimulation Origin population constraints Synthetic Population Probabilistic join Agent-Based Modelling toolkit for visualisation and behavioural modelling Population 24/7 output destination constraints

  5. Demand Forecasting

  6. Demand Forecasting

  7. Demand Forecasting

  8. Demand Forecasting

  9. Mixed Tenure Housing

  10. Mixed Tenure Housing Source: Jordan R, Birkin M, Evans A (2014) An Agent-based Model of Residential Mobility: Assessing the Impacts of Urban Regeneration Policy in the EASEL District, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, forthcoming.

  11. Mixed Tenure Housing

  12. Mixed Tenure Housing

  13. Mixed Tenure Housing  x

  14. Daily mobility https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhtxFGgZxco

  15. Daily mobility

  16. Daily mobility...

  17. Daily mobility

  18. Daily mobility

  19. Daily Mobility

  20. Daily mobility

  21. Conclusions • Wide variety of applications • Supports analysis, simulation, projection and policy appraisal • Micro-data of increasing quality and availability, but still constrained by restrictions on linkage and re-use for commercial, public policy and academic purposes • Reference: Harland K., Birkin M. (2015) Dynamic Microsimulation in Brunsdon C., Singleton A. (Eds) Geocomputation: A Practical Primer.

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