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Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)

Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW). Options for Completing the 3SAQS Pilot Study University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON ) July 28, 2014. Pilot Study Tasks and Status. Task 2013-1 (Project Management) Ongoing

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Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)

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  1. Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW) Options for Completing the 3SAQS Pilot Study University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON) July 28, 2014

  2. Pilot Study Tasks and Status • Task 2013-1 (Project Management) • Ongoing • Task 2013-2 (Emissions/AQ Support) • Complete • Task 2013-3 (2011 WRF Modeling) • Modeling complete • Draft MPE report (July 2014) • Final MPE report (August 2014)

  3. Pilot Study Tasks and Status • Task 2013-4 (2011 Emission Inventory (EI)) • Complete • Task 2013-5 (Base and Future Year O&G EI) • Phase 1 2011 and 2020 EIs Complete • Phase 2 • Adding fracing engine inventory (July 2014) • Update tank emissions in Piceance Basin to account for liquids (July 2014) • Tribal O&G EI updates in Uinta Basin using EPA MNSR (August 2014)

  4. Pilot Study Tasks and Status • Task 2013-6 (Projection Period Inventories) • 20082020 (July 2014) • 20112020 (August 2014) • Task 2013-7 (Air Quality Modeling) • CAMx Base08b and MPE report (July 2014) • 2011 Modeling Protocol (July 2014) • CAMx Base20_08a (August 2014) • CAMx Base11a and MPE report (August 2014) • CAMx Base20_11a (September 2014)

  5. Pilot Study Tasks and Status • Task 2013-8 (3SDW Development Support) • Beta source apportionment analysis database and web tool (September 2014) • Final 2008, 2011, 2020_08 and 2020_11 emissions data loaded into the 3SDW and emissions review tool (September 2014) • 2008 CAMx v5.41 benchmarking package (July 2014) • 2011 CAMx v6.10 benchmarking package (August 2014) • 3SDW 2008 NEPA modeling package (July 2014) • 3SDW 2011 NEPA modeling package (August 2014) • 2008 and 2011 research modeling packages (September 2014)

  6. Pilot Study Tasks and Status • Task 2013-8 (3SDW Development Support-con’t) • 3SAQS CAMx_Base08b MPE results in 3SDW (July 2014) • 3SAQS CAMx_Base08_20a MPE results in 3SDW (August 2014) • 3SAQS CAMx_Base11a MPE results in 3SDW (September 2014) • 3SAQS CAMx_Base08_20a MPE results in 3SDW (September 2014)

  7. Pilot Study Optional Tasks • Remaining funding to support additional work through the end of 2014 • Requesting No-Cost-Extension for 1 additional quarter to complete the pilot study

  8. 3SAQS 2011 O&G Emissions • 2011 Oil and Gas Emissions for Three-State Basins have two sources: • State/EPA provided 2011 O&G Emissions • CO APEN; UT Major Source Permit; WY everything; EPA Tribal Major Source Permit (e.g., Uinta and SUIT) • Survey-based 2011 O&G emissions grown from 2008 WestJumpAQMS O&G emissions • Perform controls analysis between 2008 and 2011 for survey-based O&G emissions

  9. 3SAQS Phase I 2020 O&G Projections • State/EPA-Provided 2011 O&G emissions • Use historical growth in activity by source type • Grow 2011 O&G to 2020 based on changes in activity • No controls analysis • Insufficient information provided in state/EPA-provided O&G data to determine controls • Survey-based 2011 O&G emissions • Use historical growth in activity by source type • Grow 2011 O&G to 2020 based on changes in activity • Perform controls analysis based on new regulations on-the-books between 2011 and 2020

  10. 3SAQS Phase II 2020 O&G Projections • Selected following Phase II updates to 2011/2020 oil and gas emissions: • Incorporate EPA Minor Source Permit Data into 2011 and then 2020 O&G emissions • Add fracing engines in 2011 and 2020 O&G emissions based on literature (CO, UT and NM) • Original surveys (2006) did not include fracing • Update tank emissions using additional information • For example, Piceance basin • Still have $15K left in current 3SAQS O&G emissions budget for additional Phase II updates

  11. Additional Phase II O&G Updates • Intermediate year O&G emissions between 2011 and 2020 ($13.5 K) • Midstream O&G emissions analysis • Memo on difficulty in calculating controls on Midstream O&G sources ($4K) • Other? ($TBD) • 2020 Controls analysis on State/EPA-provided O&G emissions ($TBD) • State and EPA emissions experts provide us with specific controls to apply on the grown 2020 sources that they provided 2011 O&G emissions for

  12. Additional CAMx Modeling • $30-40k left for additional sensitivity modeling • Ideas • O&G diagnostic modeling • Ozone source apportionment tagging O&G sub-sectors • Engines, fugitives, tanks, heaters/dehydrators… • Controllable vs. un-controllable sources • Up-stream vs mid-stream • Others? • DDM modeling to evaluate the sensitivity of regional ozone to changes in different O&G sub-sectors • Others? • Brute force anthropogenic NOx or VOC perturbations • Others?

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