The Republicans

1. The Republicans

2. Office Hours • When • Today- 11-2 • Friday 10-12 • Doyle 226B

3. Learning Outcomes • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

4. U.S. Senators • Advantages • Disadvantages

5. Governors • Advantages • Disadvantages

6. House Members • Who? • Victims of the Permanent Campaign

7. Lower offices and the Private Sector • No Chance Anymore • Can Provide a little fun

8. 2012 Presidential Election The Republicans

9. When Deciding to Run, Candidates use the following Calculus Lose< Not Run< Win

10. Following the 2010 Elections • At Least 17 Republicans have indicated presidential aspirations • Candidates needed to decide if this is their window

11. Who Didn’t Run

12. Jeb Bush • Great on Paper • Carried a Toxic last name- Didn’t want it

13. Mitch Daniels • Governor of Indiana • Popular and Term Limited • Family didn’t want it

14. Sarah Palin • High Name Recognition • Fundraising was Weak • Wasn’t Generating any excitement • Officially drops out in October

15. Mike Huckabee (and Chuck Norris) • The sleeper of 2008 • Had his own TV show • His heart wasn’t in it

16. Haley Barbour • Mississippi Governor • Prodigious Fundraiser • The Southern Option • Too Much Opposition Research

17. Chris Christie • Family didn’t want it • Not ready for a national run • Didn’t want to enter late

18. A PP Poll in Early 2011

19. The Donald • Notoriety- both good and bad • King of all “Birthers”

20. Tim Pawlenty • Everyone Described him as “Nice” • Successful Governor of MN • Not an exciting Candidate, didn’t want it

21. The Invisible Primary

22. The Invisible Primary (Historically) • The Time from the first Declaration to the Iowa caucus • The media shapes your expectations and standings • Fundraising was the barometer

23. The Modern Invisible Primary • No longer invisible • Constant Polls and debates measure success • Candidates read the handwriting

24. Winning and the Invisible Primary • This sets the expectations for the Primary • Sometimes it is better to be in the middle of the pack • Howard Dean and H. Clinton are former winners, John McCain and Bill Clinton were invisible primary losers

25. You Cant tell the players without a scorecard Who was in the Race?

26. The Republicans • No Incumbent President or Vice-President running • No Clear Favorite • The window was closing for some

27. The GOP Field in 2012 Higher Status Jobs Lower Status Jobs House Members Gingrich Bachmann Paul Private Sector Herman Cain • Governors • Perry • Romney • Huntsman • Senators • Santorum

28. The governors

29. Mitt Romney • Running for President since 2006 • Former Governor of Massachusetts • Mormon, Businessman

30. Jon Huntsman • Former Governor of New Mexico • Ambassador to China • Appealed to liberal pundits and no one else

31. Rick Perry • Longest serving governor of the largest Republican state • A Conservative Alternative to Romney • A Late Entry to the Race

32. The Lone Senator Rick Santorum

33. Rick Santorum • Two Term Senator from PA • Swept out of office in 2006 • The Socially Conservative Candidate

34. Members of the House

35. Ron Paul • Representative from Texas • The “libertarian candidate” • A Long Shot at Best

36. Newt Gingrich • Former Speaker of the House from Georgia • Architect of the 1994 Republican sweep • Out of Politics for a Decade

37. Michele Bachmann • Representative from MN • Tea Party Supporter • The only woman in the race

38. The Long shot

39. Herman Cain • CEO of Godfather Pizza • No Political Experience • Guest Host of Rush Limbaugh Show