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An Update on New Global Model Simulations

This update provides new emissions scenarios, projections, and simulations for NOx, CO, and VOC emissions globally. It includes the effects on ozone levels and potential impacts on climate change. Participating groups include renowned universities and meteorological institutes.

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An Update on New Global Model Simulations

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  1. An Update on New Global Model Simulations

  2. New emissions scenario • New emissions (NOx & CO) totals and 2050 projections for 11 world regions from IIASA (Rafaj & Amann) • New ship emissions (Corbett & Eyring) • Use ACCENT 2000 distribution as base • Scale 2000 & 2050 fields; replace ships • Assume VOCs follow CO • Use IPCC SRES CH4 concentrations

  3. ACCENT 2000 NOx

  4. New IIASA 2000 NOx

  5. Difference in NOx emissions:IIASA 2000 – ACCENT 2000

  6. ACCENT 2000 CO

  7. New IIASA 2000 CO

  8. Difference in CO emissions:IIASA 2000 – ACCENT 2000

  9. NOx emissions 2050-2000 Reduce almost everywhere – global total down ~40%

  10. CO emissions 2050-2000 Also reduce almost everywhere, global total down ~20%

  11. NMVOC emissions 2050-2000 (follows CO – realistic?)

  12. Proposed simulations

  13. Participating groups • University of Edinburgh • University of Cambridge • Guang Zeng, Oliver Wild (only emissions) • Met. Office • Mike Sanderson • KNMI (Dutch Met Office) • Twan van Noije (TM4 – only emissions) • Lawrence Livermore National Lab (US) • Dan Bergmann (IMPACT – only emissions?) • University L’Aquila • Veronica Montenaro (ULAQ – low resolution model?)

  14. Further analysis of ACCENT results • Derive relationship between O3 and NOx, CO, NMVOC emissions, and possibly climate change Previously found global O3 responds ~linearly With NOx emissions

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