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The Influences of Changes in Sea Ice and Cloud Cover on Arctic Surface Temperature Trends. Presented by Jeff Key. Requirement, Science, and Benefit. Requirement/Objective
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The Influences of Changes in Sea Ice and Cloud Cover on Arctic Surface Temperature Trends Presented by Jeff Key
Requirement, Science, and Benefit Requirement/Objective • Research area: Document and understand changes in climate forcings and feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainty in climate projections • Priority research activity: Monitor changes in the Arctic and impacts on ecosystems Science • How are trends in one climate variable influenced by trends in other variables? • Specifically, how do changes in Arctic sea ice extent and cloud cover influence changes in surface temperature? Benefits • This work most directly benefits the science community: • new information on climate interactions and feedback processes. • quantifying the importance of changes in various parts of the climate system
Challenges and Path Forward • Science challenges • What other parts of the climate system contribute to changes in surface temperature; i.e., what is causing the residual trends? • Next steps • Expand the analysis to other climate variables, e.g., snow cover. • Transition Path • As part of the NOAA Scientific Data Stewardship program, the APP-x product should be archived at NCDC. The end users are the climate assessment community and modelers (for verification). The work was recently published. 3
Data and Method • Data • Daily surface temperature and cloud cover from the extended AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP-x) product. • Daily sea ice concentration (SIC), 1982 to 2004, from SSM/I. • Method • A linear model is developed and applied to study the effect of changes in sea ice concentration (SIC) and cloud cover on surface temperature trends. • The change in surface temperature is partitioned into three components: • the surface temperature trend caused by cloud cover changes, • the surface temperature trend caused by sea ice concentration changes, • the surface temperature trend not explained by #1 or #2, i.e., the residual.
Trends in Clouds, Sea Ice, and Surface Temperature, 1982-2004 Seasonal cloud amount trend (%/decade) All-sky surface temperature trend (K/decade) Seasonal SIC trend (%/decade) • The satellite data analysis has revealed that • The Arctic surface temperature has been increasing in spring and summer, but decreasing in winter (central Arctic Ocean). • Cloud cover has been increasing in spring but decreasing in winter. • Sea ice concentration has been decreasing.
Influence of Cloud Cover and Sea Ice Trend caused by cloud cover (K/decade) Trend caused by sea ice (K/decade) In winter, cloud cover trends explain −0.91 out of −1.2 K decade−1 of the surface temperature cooling. In spring, 0.55 K decade−1 of the total 1.0 K decade−1 warming can be attributed to cloud cover changes. Sea ice loss accounts for most of the observed surface warming in the western Arctic Ocean, over 0.9 K decade−1 out of an observed 1.1 K decade−1 temperature trend.
Residual: Other Influences Changes in cloud and sea ice cover explain most of the temperature trend. The residual trend may allow for a more robust diagnosis of causes for surface warming or cooling in the Arctic by eliminating the effects of SIC and cloud amount changes. Residual trend (K/decade) • Potentially significant processes in the residual trend are • changes in the heat convergence due to shifting atmospheric circulation, • changes in Atlantic and Pacific Ocean inflow, • changes in atmospheric composition other than cloud amount.
Challenges and Path Forward • Science challenges • What other parts of the climate system contribute to changes in surface temperature; i.e., what is causing the residual trends? • Next steps • Expand the analysis to other climate variables, e.g., snow cover. • Transition Path • As part of the NOAA Scientific Data Stewardship program, the APP-x product should be archived at NCDC. The end users are the climate assessment community and modelers (for verification). The work was recently published.