Gerry Metcalf Project Manager UK Climate Impacts Programme

1. Thank you for the invitation to speak today. Thank you for the invitation to speak today.

2. UKCIP the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) �helps organisations to assess how they might be affected by climate change, so that they can prepare for its impacts�. takes account of mitigation, but the focus is on adaptation set up by UK Government in 1997 funded by Defra; based at Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford. stakeholder-led research, partnerships, programmes and capacity building uses common tools and datasets. All free! website: www.ukcip.org.uk

3. introduction �Global Climate Change is more of a threat than terrorism� Twin approach needed to both adaptation and mitigation Adaptation is easy if �adaptive capacity� is present Rich climate scenarios data is available but KISS (keep it simple stupid!) Adaptation is a function of: GHGs; time; place; sector; business area Adaptation potentially affects all business areas of an organisation Individuals already understand climate change issues, but this understanding is not used in the organisations in which they work.

4. outline science and evidence of climate change twin responses to climate change: mitigation and adaptation climate change scenarios for UK over 21st Century main variables affecting impacts of climate change on UK climate change impacts on Built Environment and Construction UKCIP resources and support

5. Climate Change science, evidence of a changing climate and society�s Influence

6. climate change: some definitions climate = average weather over a thirty year period climate change = continuous pattern of change over geological time arising from �natural� causes climate change is now used more casually to refer (only) to the recent changes in climate that have been observed since the 1960s Climate post-1960 is changing faster than before. This is judged to be as a result of human activity which is increasing the so�called �greenhouse effect�

7. the greenhouse effect - bad

9. most of the observed global warming in the past 50 years is attributable to human activities source IPCC

10. CO2 in the IPCC emissions scenarios What I would like to do in this presentation is give a brief overview of how the UK�s climate has changed over the last century, outline how it is likely to change in future, by presenting a new set of scenarios of UK climate and discuss what those changes could mean for us in the UK.What I would like to do in this presentation is give a brief overview of how the UK�s climate has changed over the last century, outline how it is likely to change in future, by presenting a new set of scenarios of UK climate and discuss what those changes could mean for us in the UK.

11. Scenarios based upon different GHG emissions are all fairly consistent up to the 2040s source Hadley Centre

12. 2. twin responses to climate change:adaptation and mitigation

13. mitigation and adaptation mitigation of climate change to slow down global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions adaptation to climate change to respond to the anticipated impacts of climate change

14. some simple adaptation messages mitigation is the ultimate adaptation response!! effective adaptation responses can create more time for mitigation actions to slow down climate change adaptation is not just an �environmental� issue: CC impacts on most aspects of business and local government adaptation directly benefits your own organisation adaptation has not yet found a �home� in many organisations, and no-one is tasked with this area of responsibility

15. 3. climate change scenarios for UK over the 21st Century

17. Changes in average temperature

18. Daily maximum temperature: probability of exceedance 

21. Extreme conditions will become more commonExtreme conditions will become more common

22. Baseline (1961-90) - blue Medium-High Emissions, 2080s - red  Extreme conditions will become more commonExtreme conditions will become more common

23. How often will extremes occur?  Medium high emissions scenario: percentage of years with�..

24. Summary of expected climate changes Long-term / seasonal averages Warmer, drier summers (spring, autumn too) Milder, wetter winters Rising sea levels Extremes More very hot days More intense downpours of rain Shorter return periods for high water levels at coast Uncertain changes in storms � possible increase in winter What I would like to do in this presentation is give a brief overview of how the UK�s climate has changed over the last century, outline how it is likely to change in future, by presenting a new set of scenarios of UK climate and discuss what those changes could mean for us in the UK.What I would like to do in this presentation is give a brief overview of how the UK�s climate has changed over the last century, outline how it is likely to change in future, by presenting a new set of scenarios of UK climate and discuss what those changes could mean for us in the UK.

25. issues of debate: Gulf Stream collapse?

26. issues of debate: uncertainty? cf uncertainty of economic climate

27. Land areas projected to warm more than oceansGreatest warming at high latitudes

28. Some areas projected to become wetter, others drier Overall increase projected

29. 4. Main variables influencing the impacts of climate change on UK

30. Key Variables on Impacts Time: Now; 2020s; 2050s; 2080s. Socio-Economic Scenarios: Global Capitalism, Local Green GHG Emissions: L; ML; MH; H Climate Variables: temp; precip; humidity; cloud cover; etc Location: by Region (ref 50km squares) Sector: Natural and Societal Environments Business Area: see CIAT (Climate Impacts Assessment Tool) Slide 23 Before we look at some of the potential impacts, particularly on businesses, in the SW, a couple of general observations by way of introduction: 1. The environment is a huge asset across the whole of the SW region. 2. Those responsible for the natural environment are generally ware of climate change impacts and are prepared for action. 3. The SWRDA has identified certain key economic sectors as driving economic development in the region. We have concentrated on these sectors in undertaking the business related parts of the study. As a result, the SW study generally has more evidence on the business sectors than the other regional studies.Slide 23 Before we look at some of the potential impacts, particularly on businesses, in the SW, a couple of general observations by way of introduction: 1. The environment is a huge asset across the whole of the SW region. 2. Those responsible for the natural environment are generally ware of climate change impacts and are prepared for action. 3. The SWRDA has identified certain key economic sectors as driving economic development in the region. We have concentrated on these sectors in undertaking the business related parts of the study. As a result, the SW study generally has more evidence on the business sectors than the other regional studies.

31. 7. impacts on business areas (see BIAT) market/need/demand logistics/utilities process investment/insurance people premises Management responses Slide 15 This is a very simple summary of the med-high emissions for 2050 for SW Annual Warming by 2oC to 3oC Greater warming in Summer and Autumn Wetter Winters (+15%) Drier Summers (-15%) Sea Level Rise c.30cm �Extreme Events� more frequent Storm and Wind changes are uncertain Snowfall significantly lessSlide 15 This is a very simple summary of the med-high emissions for 2050 for SW Annual Warming by 2oC to 3oC Greater warming in Summer and Autumn Wetter Winters (+15%) Drier Summers (-15%) Sea Level Rise c.30cm �Extreme Events� more frequent Storm and Wind changes are uncertain Snowfall significantly less

32. Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment and the Construction Sector

33. Headline Messages across Built Environment and Construction Sector 1. consider generic impacts on business areas especially changing markets consider different impacts on different parts of the construction sector recognise technical differences between new-build and retrofit build �Adaptive Capacity� across sector recognise influence of different modes of procurement and tenure consider evidence of �future proofing� required by investors, insurers, etc

34. Generic Impacts on BusinessClimate Impacts Assessment Tool (CIAT) Market Logistics/utilities Process Investment/insurance People Premises Management Responses Slide 15 This is a very simple summary of the med-high emissions for 2050 for SW Annual Warming by 2oC to 3oC Greater warming in Summer and Autumn Wetter Winters (+15%) Drier Summers (-15%) Sea Level Rise c.30cm �Extreme Events� more frequent Storm and Wind changes are uncertain Snowfall significantly lessSlide 15 This is a very simple summary of the med-high emissions for 2050 for SW Annual Warming by 2oC to 3oC Greater warming in Summer and Autumn Wetter Winters (+15%) Drier Summers (-15%) Sea Level Rise c.30cm �Extreme Events� more frequent Storm and Wind changes are uncertain Snowfall significantly less

35. Impacts on Changing Marketswhich will influence client decisions Tourism: UK and abroad Scotland becomes more attractive than Mediterranean Agriculture: Food & Drink New food and drink become popular Commercial and residential development New locations become more attractive Building Design & Technology Increased demand for Environmental Technology Slide 33 Several new market opportunities Tourism Food and Drink Building Technology Environmental Technology Including the Undertaker Service Renewable Energy Lifestyle ChangesSlide 33 Several new market opportunities Tourism Food and Drink Building Technology Environmental Technology Including the Undertaker Service Renewable Energy Lifestyle Changes

36. impacts on different parts of building and development process Slide 33 Several new market opportunities Tourism Food and Drink Building Technology Environmental Technology Including the Undertaker Service Renewable Energy Lifestyle ChangesSlide 33 Several new market opportunities Tourism Food and Drink Building Technology Environmental Technology Including the Undertaker Service Renewable Energy Lifestyle Changes

37. technical differences between new-build and retrofit New Build implement new design strategies from first principles and to the full appropriate built form (passive) and engineering strategies both possible Retrofit appropriate built form (passive) strategies difficult to achieve eg storey heights, heavy fabric, overhang and other shading devices engineering strategies difficult and/or expensive to achieve may involve higher GHG emissions to achieve comfort conditions

38. Building Adaptive Capacity & Delivering Actual Adaptation Building Adaptive Capacity Research, institutional change, education and training, standards and legislation, management, resources, policies, plans, strategies etc. Delivering Actual Adaptation Responding to changes in summer temperatures with passive cooling Putting more nails in a roof tile Increasing the diameter of a drain Planting more trees in open spaces to provide summer shade

39. Different modes of procurement and tenure Who will receive the benefit of additional investment in future proofing of�.? Conventional development of market housing? not the developer (10 yrs) Housing Association Housing? possibly the housing association Housing refurbishment for owner occupier? Reflected in enhanced value? Speculative office development? Depends on length of lease etc? PFI or PPP Hospital or School? In theory the user client, but�.?

40. evidence of �future proofing� for insurers, etc Association of British Insurers likely to introduce differentiated premiums according to degree of future proofing (especially flooding risk) Council of Mortgage Lenders looking at future proofing to be included in new �sellers pack� Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change looking at requiring evidence of future proofing before committing to investment in development Note: It will be difficult for these players to specify performance requirements for adaptation

41. UKCIP Resources and Support 

42. How then will global changes affect the climate of the UK? A new set of climate change scenarios was published last month to show how our climate will change. Produced for UKCIP by the Hadley Centre (Met Office) and Tyndall Centre (UEA) for UKCIP, with funding from DEFRA. Update and Replace UKCIP98 scenarios, and aim to provide users with the information they need to assess climate impacts�. Available in Technical and Briefing reports from UKCIP, and can be downloaded from our website - will give address later. . How then will global changes affect the climate of the UK? A new set of climate change scenarios was published last month to show how our climate will change. Produced for UKCIP by the Hadley Centre (Met Office) and Tyndall Centre (UEA) for UKCIP, with funding from DEFRA. Update and Replace UKCIP98 scenarios, and aim to provide users with the information they need to assess climate impacts�. Available in Technical and Briefing reports from UKCIP, and can be downloaded from our website - will give address later. .

43. How then will global changes affect the climate of the UK? A new set of climate change scenarios was published last month to show how our climate will change. Produced for UKCIP by the Hadley Centre (Met Office) and Tyndall Centre (UEA) for UKCIP, with funding from DEFRA. Update and Replace UKCIP98 scenarios, and aim to provide users with the information they need to assess climate impacts�. Available in Technical and Briefing reports from UKCIP, and can be downloaded from our website - will give address later. . How then will global changes affect the climate of the UK? A new set of climate change scenarios was published last month to show how our climate will change. Produced for UKCIP by the Hadley Centre (Met Office) and Tyndall Centre (UEA) for UKCIP, with funding from DEFRA. Update and Replace UKCIP98 scenarios, and aim to provide users with the information they need to assess climate impacts�. Available in Technical and Briefing reports from UKCIP, and can be downloaded from our website - will give address later. .

45. Sectoral Partnerships and Studies�Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate�

46. Capacity Building in Local Authorities Publication National Network Develop tools for needs of Local Authorities Develop tools for needs of individual service areas

47. Capacity Building in Business Pilot Project with 8 Trade Associations and Professional Institutes In four clusters Financial Services (Insurance and Mortgage lenders) Rural Land-use and Economy (agriculture) Building Design and Construction Manufacturing (including motor vehicle manufacture) RIBA, CIBSE, RICS (in discussion), Concrete Centre, ABI, CML Are partners in this programme and key players in building design and construction

48. Key messages climate is changing more quickly than in recent geological time adaptation is a sensible, effective and self-interested response mitigation is dependent upon Bush/China/India climate scenarios are now robust and data rich but KISS! adaptation is function of: time; s/e; climate variable; place; sector; business area undertake both Capacity Building and Actual Adaptation CIBSE is already pro-active in building capacity across the industry