GLOBAL VULNERABILITY REDUCTION (Part 3) A HIGH BENEFIT- TO- COST LEGACY TO LEAVE THE NEXT GENERATION

1. GLOBAL VULNERABILITY REDUCTION (Part 3)A HIGH BENEFIT- TO- COST LEGACY TO LEAVE THE NEXT GENERATION ACCELERATING REDUCTION OF EVERY COMMUNITY’S VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL HAZARDS WILL BE THE KEY TO SURVIVAL FOR MILLIONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY MAY 27, 2011 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

2. A BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives On Science, Policy, And Education

3. HAZARD MAPS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • EDUCATION/TRAINING • PREVENTION/MITIGATION • MONITORING • ADAPTATION POLICIES FOR REDUCING VULNERABILITY & RISK RISK ASSESSMENT ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK FROM EXPERIENCE TO BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE TO…STOP. DATA BASES AND INFORMATION COMMUNITY HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

4. RISK ASSESSMENT • VULNERABILITY • EXPOSURE • EVENT • COST • BENEFIT POLICY ADOPTION AND IMPLEMEN-TATION NATURAL HAZARDS EXPECTED LOSS • CONSEQUENCES POLICY ASSESSMENT OUR LEGACY: A GLOBAL REDUCTION OF COMMUNITY VULNERABILITIES

5. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE - Perspectives On Science, Policy, And EM HI-ED

6. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE ON CLIMATE CHANGE

7. AN ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UNITED STATES A report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program June 20, 2008

8. AN ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UNITED STATES A joint effort of more than a dozen government agencies for the report, go online to www.usgcrp.gov

9. HIGHLIGHTS OF REPORT "Heat waves and heavy downpours are very likely to increase infrequency and in intensity.”

10. HIGHLIGHTS OF REPORT "Substantial areas of North America are likely to havemore frequent droughts of greater severity.”

11. HIGHLIGHTS OF REPORT “Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely toincrease.”

12. HIGHLIGHTS OF REPORT The strongest winter storms are likely to becomemore frequent,with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights."

13. ADDITIONAL IMPLICATIONS Soil amplification of earthquake ground shaking is likely to bemore wide spread.

14. ADDITIONAL IMPLICATIONS Landslides triggered in earthquakes or by flooding are likely to bemore extensive.

15. ADDITIONAL IMPLICATIONS The impacts oftsunami wave run upis likely to be more extensive.

16. PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY “By the end of this centuryrainfall amountsexpected to occur every 20 years now could be taking placeevery five years.” y the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years could be taking place every five years. Such an increase "can lead to the type of events that we are seeing in the Midwest," said Karl, though he did not directly link the current flooding to climate change.

17. PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY “An increase in frequency can lead to more frequent occurrences of flooding events such as those that occurred in the Midwest during 2009 AND 2011.” y the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years could be taking place every five years. Such an increase "can lead to the type of events that we are seeing in the Midwest," said Karl, though he did not directly link the current flooding to climate change.

18. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE: DROUGHTS

19. DROUGHTS - Perspectives On Science, Policy, And Education

20. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE ON DROUGHT Drought is the result of the interaction ofrainfall,which can be highly variable, andhuman systems,which can be very vulnerable to changes in rainfall.

21. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE: DROUGHTS Drought is related toclimatic variabilitythat usually is occurring far from the community or the area being impacted by drought.

22. CAUSES OF RISK PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY DEPLETION &POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER DROUGHTS LOSS OF VEGETATION CASE HISTORIES INSECT INFESTATION PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND BY DESERTIFICATION

23. FACTORS THAT EXACERBATE DROUGHT RISK CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED BY EL NINO AND LA NINA CONDITIONS (i.e., WARMING AND COOLING OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN) LOCATIONS IN SHADOW OF MOUNTAIN RANGE

24. EARTHQUAKES - Perspectives On Science, Policy, And Education

25. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE ON EARTHQUAKES

26. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE: EARTHQUAKES Earthquakes occur as the result of interactions between and withintectonic plates in the lithospherethat are slowly converging, diverging, or sliding past each other as a result of stresses created by ongoing heat flow within the Earth.

27. CAUSES OF RISK INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP CASE HISTORIES LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

28. TSUNAMIS - Perspectives On Science, Policy, And Education

29. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGEON TSUNAMIS

30. CAUSES OF RISK HIGH VELOCITY OF INCOMING WAVES DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP AND RUNOFF VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS TSUNAMIS FLOODING CASE HISTORIES INADEQUATE WARNING SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI

31. JAPAN: EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI; MARCH 12, 2011

32. TSUNAMI: CHILE, 2011

33. FACTORS THAT EXACERBATE EARTHQUAKE RISK ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY A SHALLOW FOCAL DEPTH. ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY BEING IN OR CLOSE TO THE FAULT RUPTURE ZONE WHERE CONDITIONS FOR OCCURRENCE OF THE “KILLER PULSE” ARE BEST.

34. FACTORS THAT EXACERBATE EARTHQUAKE RISK AMPLIFICATION OF GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY SOFT SOILS LONG--DURATION ACCELERATION PULSE CAUSED BY FLING OF THE FAULT

35. FACTORS THAT EXACERBATE EARTHQUAKE RISK BUILDINGS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND LATERAL GROUND SHAKING LIFELINE SYSTEMS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH FAULT RUPTURE, LANDSLIDES, AND LIQUEFACTION

36. FLOODS - Perspectives On Science, Policy, And Education

37. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE: FLOODS

38. CAUSES OF RISK BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS EFFECTS OF WATER ON STRUCTURE & CONTENTS FLOODS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH PROBLEMS, DEATH AND INJURY CASE HISTORIES LOSS FUNCTION OF INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

39. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE: FLOODS Flooding occurs whenthe local river channels, floodplains, wetlands, and water tables are not able to contain, store, or transmitlocal precipitation and runoff.

40. MISSISSIPPI RIVER FLOODS: 2011

41. FACTORS THAT EXACERBATE FLOOD RISK COMMUNITY’S BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE LOCATED IN THE FLOODPLAIN PROLONGED RAINFALL EXTENDED DRAINAGE IN A LARGE BASIN HIGH VELOCITY FLOW

42. SEVERE WINDSTORMS - Perspectives On Science, Policy, And EM HI-ED

43. BOOK OF KNOWLEDE ON SEVERE WINDSTORMS

44. CAUSES OF RISK WIND AND WATER INSIDE BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS UNDERESTIMATING WIND SPEEDS AND STORM SURGE SEVERE WINDSTORMS FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE AND RAIN CASE HISTORIES QUALITY OF WORKMANSHIP IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

45. ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010 • Alex (H) June 21 • Bonnie July 27 • Colin Aug 3 • Danielle (H) Aug 21 • Earl (H) Aug.29 • Fiona Aug 30

46. ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010 • Gaston Sept 1 • Hermine Sept 6 • Igor H Sept 8 • Julia H Sept 12 • Karl Sept 14 • Lisa Sept 21

47. LANDSLIDES - Perspectives On Science, Policy, And Education

48. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE ON LANDSLIDES

49. CAUSES OF RISK BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS LANDSLIDES SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS CASE HISTORIES EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION OR GROUND SHAKING BARE, OVERSTEEPENED SLOPES

50. LANDSLIDES: RIO DE JANEIRO STATE, BRAZIL; 2011 Once tropical forests (a carbon sink) are cleared for cattle ranching or community development, the cleared land can becomes a major source of methane, a greenhouse gas.