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GLOBAL VULNERABILITY REDUCTION (Part 3) A HIGH BENEFIT- TO- COST LEGACY TO LEAVE THE NEXT GENERATION . ACCELERATING REDUCTION OF EVERY COMMUNITY’S VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL HAZARDS WILL BE THE KEY TO SURVIVAL FOR MILLIONS IN THE 21 ST CENTURY MAY 27, 2011 .

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global vulnerability reduction part 3 a high benefit to cost legacy to leave the next generation

GLOBAL VULNERABILITY REDUCTION (Part 3)A HIGH BENEFIT- TO- COST LEGACY TO LEAVE THE NEXT GENERATION

ACCELERATING REDUCTION OF EVERY COMMUNITY’S VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL HAZARDS WILL BE THE KEY TO SURVIVAL FOR MILLIONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY

MAY 27, 2011

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

slide2

A BOOK OF

KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

And Education

slide3

HAZARD MAPS

  • INVENTORY
  • VULNERABILITY
  • LOCATION
  • EDUCATION/TRAINING
  • PREVENTION/MITIGATION
  • MONITORING
  • ADAPTATION

POLICIES FOR REDUCING VULNERABILITY & RISK

RISK ASSESSMENT

ACCEPTABLE RISK

RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

FROM EXPERIENCE TO BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE TO…STOP.

DATA BASES AND INFORMATION

COMMUNITY

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

slide4

RISK ASSESSMENT

  • VULNERABILITY
  • EXPOSURE
  • EVENT
  • COST
  • BENEFIT

POLICY ADOPTION AND

IMPLEMEN-TATION

NATURAL HAZARDS

EXPECTED LOSS

  • CONSEQUENCES

POLICY ASSESSMENT

OUR LEGACY: A GLOBAL REDUCTION OF COMMUNITY VULNERABILITIES

slide5

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE - Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

And EM HI-ED

an assessment of impacts of climate change in the united states

AN ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UNITED STATES

A report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

June 20, 2008

an assessment of impacts of climate change in the united states1

AN ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UNITED STATES

A joint effort of more than a dozen government agencies

for the report, go online to www.usgcrp.gov

highlights of report
HIGHLIGHTS OF REPORT

"Heat waves and heavy downpours are very likely to increase infrequency and in intensity.”

highlights of report1
HIGHLIGHTS OF REPORT

"Substantial areas of North America are likely to havemore frequent droughts of greater severity.”

highlights of report2
HIGHLIGHTS OF REPORT

“Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely toincrease.”

highlights of report3
HIGHLIGHTS OF REPORT

The strongest winter storms are likely to becomemore frequent,with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights."

additional implications
ADDITIONAL IMPLICATIONS

Soil amplification of earthquake ground shaking is likely to bemore wide spread.

additional implications1
ADDITIONAL IMPLICATIONS

Landslides triggered in earthquakes or by flooding are likely to bemore extensive.

additional implications2
ADDITIONAL IMPLICATIONS

The impacts oftsunami wave run upis likely to be more extensive.

projected change in frequency
PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY

“By the end of this centuryrainfall amountsexpected to occur every 20 years now could be taking placeevery five years.”

y the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years could be taking place every five years.

Such an increase "can lead to the type of events that we are seeing in the Midwest," said Karl, though he did not directly link the current flooding to climate change.

projected change in frequency1
PROJECTED CHANGE IN FREQUENCY

“An increase in frequency can lead to more frequent occurrences of flooding events such as those that occurred in the Midwest during 2009 AND 2011.”

y the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years could be taking place every five years.

Such an increase "can lead to the type of events that we are seeing in the Midwest," said Karl, though he did not directly link the current flooding to climate change.

slide19

DROUGHTS

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

And Education

book of knowledge on drought
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE ON DROUGHT

Drought is the result of the interaction ofrainfall,which can be highly variable, andhuman systems,which can be very vulnerable to changes in rainfall.

book of knowledge droughts1
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE: DROUGHTS

Drought is related toclimatic variabilitythat usually is occurring far from the community or the area being impacted by drought.

slide22

CAUSES OF RISK

PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION

LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE

LOSS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

DEPLETION &POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER

DROUGHTS

LOSS OF VEGETATION

CASE HISTORIES

INSECT INFESTATION

PROGRESSIVE LOSS OF LAND BY DESERTIFICATION

factors that exacerbate drought risk
FACTORS THAT EXACERBATE DROUGHT RISK

CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED BY EL NINO AND LA NINA CONDITIONS (i.e., WARMING AND COOLING OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN)

LOCATIONS IN SHADOW OF MOUNTAIN RANGE

slide24

EARTHQUAKES

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

And Education

book of knowledge earthquakes
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE: EARTHQUAKES

Earthquakes occur as the result of interactions between and withintectonic plates in the lithospherethat are slowly converging, diverging, or sliding past each other as a result of stresses created by ongoing heat flow within the Earth.

slide27

CAUSES OF RISK

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

EARTHQUAKES

TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP

CASE HISTORIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

slide28

TSUNAMIS

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

And Education

slide30

CAUSES OF RISK

HIGH VELOCITY OF INCOMING WAVES

DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP AND RUNOFF

VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS

TSUNAMIS

FLOODING

CASE HISTORIES

INADEQUATE WARNING SYSTEMS

PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI

factors that exacerbate earthquake risk
FACTORS THAT EXACERBATE EARTHQUAKE RISK

ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY A SHALLOW FOCAL DEPTH.

ENHANCED GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY BEING IN OR CLOSE TO THE FAULT RUPTURE ZONE WHERE CONDITIONS FOR OCCURRENCE OF THE “KILLER PULSE” ARE BEST.

factors that exacerbate earthquake risk1
FACTORS THAT EXACERBATE EARTHQUAKE RISK

AMPLIFICATION OF GROUND SHAKING CAUSED BY SOFT SOILS

LONG--DURATION ACCELERATION PULSE CAUSED BY FLING OF THE FAULT

factors that exacerbate earthquake risk2
FACTORS THAT EXACERBATE EARTHQUAKE RISK

BUILDINGS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND LATERAL GROUND SHAKING

LIFELINE SYSTEMS UNABLE TO WITHSTAND PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH FAULT RUPTURE, LANDSLIDES, AND LIQUEFACTION

slide36

FLOODS

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

And Education

slide38

CAUSES OF RISK

BUILDING IN FLOOD PLAIN

INUNDATION

INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

EFFECTS OF WATER ON STRUCTURE & CONTENTS

FLOODS

INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEALTH PROBLEMS, DEATH AND INJURY

CASE HISTORIES

LOSS FUNCTION OF INFRASTRUCTURE

VULNERABILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

book of knowledge floods1
BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE: FLOODS

Flooding occurs whenthe local river channels, floodplains, wetlands, and water tables are not able to contain, store, or transmitlocal precipitation and runoff.

factors that exacerbate flood risk
FACTORS THAT EXACERBATE FLOOD RISK

COMMUNITY’S BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE LOCATED IN THE FLOODPLAIN

PROLONGED RAINFALL

EXTENDED DRAINAGE IN A LARGE BASIN

HIGH VELOCITY FLOW

slide42

SEVERE WINDSTORMS - Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

And EM HI-ED

slide44

CAUSES OF RISK

WIND AND WATER INSIDE BUILDING ENVELOPE

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS

UNDERESTIMATING WIND SPEEDS AND STORM SURGE

SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE AND RAIN

CASE HISTORIES

QUALITY OF WORKMANSHIP

IGNORING NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

atlantic basin tropical storms and hurricanes 2010
ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010
  • Alex (H) June 21
  • Bonnie July 27
  • Colin Aug 3
  • Danielle (H) Aug 21
  • Earl (H) Aug.29
  • Fiona Aug 30
atlantic basin tropical storms and hurricanes 20101
ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010
  • Gaston Sept 1
  • Hermine Sept 6
  • Igor H Sept 8
  • Julia H Sept 12
  • Karl Sept 14
  • Lisa Sept 21
slide47

LANDSLIDES

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

And Education

slide49

CAUSES OF RISK

BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS

LANDSLIDES

SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS

CASE HISTORIES

EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION OR GROUND SHAKING

BARE, OVERSTEEPENED SLOPES

landslides rio de janeiro state brazil 2011
LANDSLIDES: RIO DE JANEIRO STATE, BRAZIL; 2011

Once tropical forests (a carbon sink) are cleared for cattle ranching or community development, the cleared land can becomes a major source of methane, a greenhouse gas.

slide51

WILDFIRES

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

And EM HI-ED

slide53

CAUSES OF RISK

LIGHTNING

MANMADE FIRES

PROXIMITY OF URBAN-WILDLANDS INTERFACE

WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION

WILDFIRES

CUTTING FORESTS

CASE HISTORIES

DENUDED SLOPES

HOT, DRY WEATHER

slide55

BOOK OF

KNOWLEDGE - Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

And Education

slide57

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

And Education

slide58

CAUSES OF RISK

PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST

IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA)

IN PATH OF VOLCANIC PLUME AND ASH (AVIATION)

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

IN PATH OF LAVA FLOWS

CASE HISTORIES

IN PATH OF LAHARS

INADEQUATE WARNING ANO EVACUATION

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