1 / 36

Crop Outlook for 2011

Crop Outlook for 2011. 2010 Integrated Crop Management Conference Ames, Iowa Dec. 2, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. Translates to a yield in the 170-175 bu. range.

teresa
Download Presentation

Crop Outlook for 2011

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Crop Outlook for 2011 2010 Integrated Crop Management Conference Ames, Iowa Dec. 2, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. Translates to a yield in the 170-175 bu. range Translates to a yield around 160 bu. Source: USDA-NASS

  4. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  5. Within a bushel of each other Source: USDA-NASS

  6. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  7. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  8. Clearing Old Stocks The current stocks set-up is reminiscent of the transition between the 2006 and 2007 crops. Source: USDA

  9. Livestock Situation Poultry production 46% of total red meat and poultry Year-to-date 2010 Broilers +3.6%, Turkey -4.4% 7-weeks: Chick placement +3.4% / Egg set +5.4% Forecast for 2011 & 2012 (yr/yr % change) Production Consumption Broilers +2.5 & +3.1 +1.5 & +2.0 Turkeys +3.0 & +4.5 -1.3 & +6.1 Source: John Lawrence, ISU Extension

  10. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  11. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  12. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  13. 2010 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  14. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  15. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  16. 2010 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  17. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  18. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  19. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  20. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  21. Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA, NYMEX

  22. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  23. Fuel Prices

  24. Gasoline Consumption Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

  25. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

  26. Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

  27. Corn

  28. Soybeans

  29. Corn Futures Trade Source: CFTC

  30. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Even with the recent knock, futures have prices in the $5 range Even with higher fertilizer costs, corn’s profitable

  31. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Futures have season-average prices above $11 for ’10 and ‘11

  32. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  33. States with Room to Grow

  34. New Crop Futures Price Movements

  35. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Fears of Chinese inflation and credit tightening have hit the markets • Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range • Supply/demand concerns • South America: La Niña impacts • Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Do the tax credits get extended/renewed? • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.20, Soy $11.45 Futures (as of 12/1/2010): Corn $5.06, Soy $11.63 • 2011/12: Futures (as of 12/1/2010): Corn $5.11, Soy $11.60

  36. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

More Related