1 / 30

Crop Outlook

Crop Outlook. Farm Management In-Service Ames, Iowa Oct. 11, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. Source: USDA-NASS. Source: USDA-NASS. Source: USDA-NASS.

Download Presentation

Crop Outlook

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Crop Outlook Farm Management In-Service Ames, Iowa Oct. 11, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. Source: USDA-NASS

  4. Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Translates to a yield in the 170-175 bu. range Translates to a yield around 160 bu. Source: USDA-NASS

  7. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  8. Source: USDA-NASS

  9. Source: USDA-NASS

  10. Within a bushel of each other Source: USDA-NASS

  11. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  12. Corn – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  13. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  14. Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  15. La Niña Winter Source: NOAA

  16. Clearing Old Stocks The current stocks set-up is reminiscent of the transition between the 2006 and 2007 crops. Source: USDA

  17. Historical Export Levels Week 5 of marketing year Source: USDA, FAS

  18. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  19. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  20. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  21. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  22. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

  23. Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

  24. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  25. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  26. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Right now, futures are in $5 range for 2010 and 2011 corn

  27. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Futures are nearly $11 for 2010 and 2011 beans

  28. This Year Corn $4.70 Soy $10.51

  29. Thoughts for 2010 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range • Supply/demand concerns • Yield and production effects of Midwestern moisture and temperature • Stocks: 2009 vs. 2010 crop • South America: La Niña impacts • Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Do the tax credits get extended/renewed? • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.00, Soy $10.75 Futures: Corn $5.01, Soy $10.96 • 2011/12: Futures: Corn $4.93, Soy $10.88

  30. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

More Related