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WAIS collapsed before GIS collapse!

WAIS meeting, October, 2008. WAIS collapsed before GIS collapse!. Reed Scherer Northern Illinois University Analytical Center for Climate & Environmental Change & Department of Geology & Environmental Geosciences. Strong Obliquity-forced cyclicity. AND-1B 000-600m.

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WAIS collapsed before GIS collapse!

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  1. WAIS meeting, October, 2008 WAIS collapsed before GIS collapse! Reed Scherer Northern Illinois University Analytical Center for Climate & Environmental Change & Department of Geology & Environmental Geosciences

  2. Strong Obliquity-forced cyclicity AND-1B000-600m Diatomites and diatomaceous muds • 48% of upper 600 m • 53%, excluding volcanic facies • Loads of stories from diatom-based proxies: • Sea-ice • SST • Milankovitch & sub-Milankovitch cyclicity • Glacial processes at transitions

  3. Marine Isotope Stage 31 100ka MPT 41ka N. Atlantic S. Atlantic

  4. Late Pleistoceneterminations are triggered by rising NH insolation • Orbital-scale Antarctic climate change lags NH insolation by a few millennia True for all terminations?

  5. Highest high latitude insolation of the last 3 Ma • High, obl. & ecc. • One intense NH insolation peak (1.072 Ma), 2 SH peaks • Perihelion in SH summer at 1.082 Ma

  6. “Better bring your sunblock”- Rob DeConto, Oct 8, 2008 • Insolation at 70°S at 1.082 Ma ~50 watts/m2 > today • ~100 watts/m2 difference between 1.08 Ma and 1.072 Ma!

  7. Raymo et al., 2006

  8. You’ll soon hear a bit of Rob D & Dave P’s latest model runs for MIS-31!

  9. Laskar inso. 65ºN&S 18O cib. & pachy. 18O 1094 – pachy. 13C 1094 Calc. nanno Diatoms Site 1094 Scherer et al. 2008

  10. CRP-1 Lithostratigraphic Unit 3.2 Up to 80% biogenic carbonate (mostly benthic) Unequivocally dated as MIS-31 (Ar/Ar, Sr/Sr, diatoms, paleomag.) Shallow mixed layer, ~1% sea-ice diatoms Abundant local IRD, 5-7% sea-ice diatoms Abundant pelagic diatoms

  11. 0.99Ma Jaramillo 84.97 ANDRILL MIS: MIS-31 is present but incomplete Comparble diatoms to CRP-1 <<1% sea-ice diatoms Ar/Ar: 1.01 Ma ~~~~~~~ 91.13 1.072 Ma Rare calc-nannofossils Bioturbated diatomaceous mud with volcanic sand but no IRD (90.8 mbsf) Bioturbated diatomite with local-source IRD (87.2 mbsf)

  12. CRP-1 & ANDRILLInterpretation • Little or no sea-ice • Low salinity shallow mixed layer • Surface waters ~2-3° (current surface waters -1.8°) NO RIS – early collapse, in phase with insolation NO WAIS (probably)

  13. Gavin Dunbar’s work at VUW: Laser-ablation ICPMS (in prep.) Mg/Ca ratios from N. pachyderma shows Ross Sea ~2-4°C

  14. Red: NH Blue: SH

  15. Marine Isotope Stage 311.08-1.06 Ma ago • Warmer surface waters than any time in the last 2.4 Ma • RIS absolutely retreated and WAIS almost certainly collapsed (my opinion) • Much better documented than the late Pleistocene events that I’ve discussed before • WAIS collapse preceded GIS collapse by ~10ka (1/2 precession cycle) (my opinion)

  16. Conclusions: • It was a different world “One Million Years BC” • MIS-31 further demonstrates the fragility of sea-ice and the RIS/WAIS system to insolation

  17. Questions: • Was it unique? • What does this mean in terms of future CO2 forcing, rather than insolation forcing?

  18. Pilot study with Tim Naish & colleagues at VUW/GNS: MIS-31, Wanganui Basin, New Zealand sensitive SL record, >20 m thick Does it show the 2-stepped SL rise with max SL coincident with regional cooling around the base of the Jaramillo?

  19. Ice sheet variation and Milankovitch cyclicity: two views (Science, 313, 2006) • Huybers: Duration of summer • higher mean annual temperature (# +degree days/yr) • Obliquity (41kyr) dominated • In phase between poles • Typically relatively warm winter and cool summers (which wouldn’t cause Antarctic melting) • Raymo et al.: Intensity of summer insolation • Precession (23 kyr) dominated • out of phase between poles – strong influence on local insolation • Short but potentially intense summers • Threshold melting affects ice margins on land • Indicates a larger SL contribution from Antarctica than widely recognized

  20. But CO2 highs are synchronous with Antarctic warming on lower amplitude, millennial cycles • CO2 ↑ during NH stadials, several ka before abrupt warming in Greenland

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