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Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Michael Jewison Foreign Agricultural Service

Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Michael Jewison Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Outlook Forum Arlington, Virginia February 25, 2011. Cash Prices in Illinois Are Near Record Levels of 2007/08. 16.18. 12.69. 6.53. U.S. Factors Shaping 2011.

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Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Michael Jewison Foreign Agricultural Service

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  1. Grain and Oilseeds Outlook for 2011 Michael Jewison Foreign Agricultural Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Outlook Forum Arlington, Virginia February 25, 2011

  2. Cash Prices in Illinois Are Near Record Levels of 2007/08 16.18 12.69 6.53

  3. U.S. Factors Shaping 2011 Tight supplies of corn and soybeans, relatively abundant wheat Little supply cushion for corn and soybeans in the event of adverse weather Strong corn, wheat, and soybean exports

  4. Projected 10 Million More Acres: 75 Percent Going to Corn and Wheat 277 287 295

  5. New Crop Soy/Corn Price Relationship Favors Corn Soybean/Corn

  6. Net Returns for Corn and Soybeans Historically High

  7. U.S. Corn: A Record Crop, Tight Carry-In Stocks, Strong Use Supply Bil. Bu Bil. Bu Use

  8. Gradual Recovery in Gasoline Consumption Supports Growth in Ethanol Source: Energy Information Administration

  9. But Ethanol Usage Constrained By Market For E10

  10. U.S. Maintains Corn Exports While DDG Exports Grow MMT

  11. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks Would Be The Second Lowest Since 95/96 MMT

  12. U.S. Wheat: Lower Production and Carry-In Stocks, Exports Still Strong Bil. Bu Supply Bil. Bu Use

  13. U.S. Soybeans: Bumper Crop and Tight Carry-In Stocks, Strong Exports and Crush Bil. Bu Supply Bil. Bu Use

  14. Global Factors Shaping 2011 Degree of Russian crop recovery Production responses: Canada, EU, South America, and Australia Continued surging demand for feed ingredients, particularly in China

  15. Wheat: Need More Production to Meet Rising Global Consumption ?

  16. Wheat Stocks Held by Exporters Still Ample *Most stocks unavailable to World **Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine ***Argentina. Australia, Canada, EU, U.S.

  17. Global Corn Production Expands to Meet Rising Demand

  18. U.S. Corn Production Responds to Ethanol, Foreign Production Responds to Growing Feed Demand MMT United States Foreign MMT

  19. Soybeans: Higher Global Production Balances Rising Consumption

  20. United States, Argentina, and Brazil Dominate Growth In Global Soybean Production MMT

  21. Soybean Production Growth: Area in South America, Yield in the U.S. MMT Period is over the last 10 years

  22. China: All of the Growth In Soybean Import Demand

  23. Soybean Stocks Available to The World: Record Low in 10/11 MMT

  24. China: The Wild Card!

  25. China: Feed Ingredient Imports Double MMT

  26. China: Hog Operations Turn Profitable On Soaring Hog Prices Relative to Corn Hog/Corn Ratio Breakeven Ratio

  27. China’s Corn Imports: Economics Or Policy U.S. Exports TMT $/MT Over 1 MMT of U.S. purchases

  28. Thank you!

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