Study on future fuels for cargo vessels in the baltic sea
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Study on future fuels for cargo vessels in the Baltic Sea. Nasif Rahman Laiva 2025 Espoo, 29.08.2013. Objectives. To analyze four non-conventional fuels considering Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and Marine Gas Oil ( MGO ) combination as baseline properties Fossil fuels

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Study on future fuels for cargo vessels in the Baltic Sea

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Study on future fuels for cargo vessels in the Baltic Sea

Nasif Rahman

Laiva 2025

Espoo, 29.08.2013


Objectives

  • To analyze four non-conventional fuels considering Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and Marine Gas Oil (MGO) combination as baseline properties

  • Fossil fuels

    • Liquefied natural gas (LNG)

    • Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)

  • Biofuels

    • Biodiesel (B100)

    • Bioethanol (E85)

  • Marine Gas Oil (MGO) as main fuel

  • To analyze the ability of these fuels to fulfill future (2025) environmental regulations on air emissions

  • To carry out a cost analysis based on the net present value (NPV) calculations of a case ship with the five fuel options

  • Laiva 2025


    Major Upcoming regulations

    Laiva 2025


    Air emission assessment model (AEAM)

    Laiva 2025


    Case study: m/s Eira

    • Ice Class IA Super: Baseline case

      • 14 nautical mile per hour (knots)

      • 75% maximum continuous rating (MCR) of the engines

  • Ice Class IA

    • 14 knots

    • 75% maximum continuous rating (MCR) of the engines

  • Ice Class IA Super slow steaming:

    • 11 nautical mile per hour (knots)

    • 50% maximum continuous rating (MCR) of the engines

  • Source: ESL Shipping Oy

    Laiva 2025


    Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) calculation for different fuels

    • EEDI =

    • The calculated EEDI is a theoretical measure of the CO2 mass emitted per unit of transport work (grams CO2 per ton nautical mile) for a particular ship design

    • Variation in carbon content and specific fuel consumption of fuels

    • Variation in engine’s power requirement for different Ice Class

    Laiva 2025


    Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) results

    Phase 0: starts from 2013

    Phase 1: starts from 2015

    Phase 2: starts from 2020

    Phase 3: starts from 2025

    Laiva 2025


    Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Sulphur Oxides (SOx) emission results

    • All main and auxiliary engines pass Tier III with LNG

    • With LPG and ethanol, the passing limits are Tier II

    • HFO and MGO pass Tier I

    • Biodiesel can only pass Tier I with slow steaming

    • All the studied fuel contain very low sulphur than HFO and MGO, they all can pass SECA 2015 regulation

    Source: IMO MARPOL annex VI reg. 13

    Laiva 2025


    Air emission assessment model results

    • Does not show much variations between Ice Class IA Super and Ice Class IA

    • Results are better in slow steaming case

    • LNG and then LPG give best results

    Laiva 2025


    Net present value (NPV) estimation: variables

    • Up to 2025, biodiesel as main fuel would be the most expensive

    • After 2025, heavy fuel oil (HFO) as main fuel would be the most expensive

    • Investments cost other than machinery costs have kept constant for both cases

    Laiva 2025


    Net present value (NPV) estimation: Annual fuel cost

    • About two third cost with 11 knots speed than 14 knots

    • Ethanol is much cheaper but its consumption is high for same power output

    • As a result, cost with ethanol is similar with LNG and LPG

    Laiva 2025


    Net present value (NPV) estimation

    • Slow steaming offers less NPV value for the ship for non-conventional fuels

    • Change in annual income with LNG/LPG for DWT/gross volume loss from 305 cubic meters net volume (119 ton) fuel tanks

    • In case with HFO and MGO, slow steaming provides better NPV because of their high fuel price in the future

    Laiva 2025


    Conclusions

    • LNG would be the best fuel option considering air emission properties and cost analysis

    • Small difference in results in case of Ice Class IA

    • Much better results on air emission properties in case of slow steaming

    • Slow steaming must be decided based on cargo flow in the market

    • Whole lifecycle CO2 emission analysis needed for biodiesel

    Laiva 2025


    Future Challenges

    • Cost reduction from less air emissions: Mainly on reduction of NOx and SOx emission

      • Port of Stockholm: up to 23%

      • Port of Mariehamn: up to 24%

      • Port of Rotterdam: up to 10%

    • CO2 trade: the EU scheme

      • The European Union Emission Trading Scheme: Cap and Trade Principal

      • 31 countries involved; 1,000 factories, power stations, and other installations with a net heat excess of 20 MW as of Jan 2013

      • Shipping not included (near future?)

    Laiva 2025


    Thank you

    Laiva 2025


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