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New concepts and ideas in air pollution strategies

New concepts and ideas in air pollution strategies. Richard Ballaman Chairman of the Working Group on Strategies and Review. Future challenges. Accession to protocols by as many Parties as possible Effective implementation of Protocols by EECCA countries

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New concepts and ideas in air pollution strategies

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  1. New concepts and ideas in air pollution strategies Richard BallamanChairman of the Working Group on Strategies and Review

  2. Future challenges • Accession to protocols by as many Parties as possible • Effective implementation of Protocols by EECCA countries • Further reduction of emissions: NH3, NOx, VOC, SO2, HMs and POPs • Derive new and lower NECs • Good cooperation on transatlantic or hemispheric issues: Hg, O3, PM and POPs

  3. What remains to be done ? • Reduce acidification, especially from NH3 • Decrease eutrophication (N deposition) • Limit violations of AOT40 CL to avoid vegetation damage • Decrease O3 as significant cause of premature death • Decrease population exposure to PM

  4. Health & environmental impact(RAINS_BL_CLE, August 2004, C. Agren)

  5. Acid deposition to forests(IIASA) 2000 2010 2020 Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

  6. Excess of critical loads for eutrophication(IIASA) 2000 2010 2020 Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

  7. Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrationsAOT40 [ppm.hours](IIASA) 2000 2010 2020 Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

  8. Premature deaths attributable to ozone[cases/year](IIASA) Provisional calculations with 50X50 km resolution

  9. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months](IIASA) 2000 2010 2020 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

  10. Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Source: RAINS / IIASA

  11. What can be done ? • Use PM health effects as driving force to further reduce emissions of primary and secondary pollutants • Identify the potential for new technical measures(define BAT to derive ELV) • Make use of synergies to abate air pollution and avoid climate change • Consider structural changes and alternative energy policies

  12. Multi pollutants / multi effects approach with new pollutants and additional problems CO2 N 2O Climate change CH4 Acidification CO SO2 Eutrophication NH3 Particulate matter NOx NMVOC Tropospheric ozone primaryPM Population exposure POPs HMs

  13. Multi pollutants / multi effects approach: extended version with new avenues for action CO2 N 2O Climate change CH4 Acidification CO SO2 Eutrophication Particulate matter NH3 NOx NMVOC Tropospheric ozone Population exposure primaryPM HMs POPs

  14. Emissions 1990 – 2020 (RAINS BL_ CLE, Aug. 04)

  15. Source categories to further consider • Ships, diesel vehicles, off-road sector • Industrial processes, solvents • Small combustion (wood burning) • Agriculture (animal housing, manure storage and spreading) • Retrofitting of existing sources • Increased use of alternative fuels (fuel switching)

  16. Cattle number  EF per veh.  Diesel engines  Aviation   Shipping  Milk productivity per animal NH3 emissions  Road traffic (driven mileage)  Total emissions  PM  NOx Total emissions  Relevance of sources will change

  17. Long term exposure to PM and risk of mortality in ACS cohort WHO European Centre for Environment and Health TFH 2003: “..apply the relative risk for all cause mortality… in the extended American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort study Pope et al. (2002).” Source: Pope et al, JAMA 2002

  18. Possible challenges beyond 2010 • Increase life expectancy of European population by at least 6 months • Reduce by 50% remaining excess of acidification and eutrophication • Contribute to the avoidance of climate change by reducing O3 and PM concentrations, as well as abatement of CH4 and CO emissions on a regional scale

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