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The Long and Winding Road… U.S. Travel Trends and Outlook

The Long and Winding Road… U.S. Travel Trends and Outlook. About the travelhorizons TM Survey. Looking forward instead of back Travel intentions in the six months Quarterly online national survey of U.S. adults since March 2007 Current survey conducted between July 19 – 30th

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The Long and Winding Road… U.S. Travel Trends and Outlook

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  1. The Long and Winding Road… U.S. Travel Trends and Outlook

  2. About the travelhorizonsTM Survey • Looking forward instead of back • Travel intentions in the six months • Quarterly online national survey of U.S. adults since March 2007 • Current survey conducted between July 19 – 30th • Total of 2,200 responses from U.S. adults age 18+ and capturing 1,600 past year travelers per survey wave • Respondents representative of the total U.S. population of adults age 18+ • Joint program between the U.S. Travel Association and Ypartnership

  3. 2001 – 2011… One for the books

  4. But also a Decade of Rs… Re-Birth Resilience Renewal Recovery Resourcefulness

  5. Turning the corner…But when? • Another “soft patch” • Weak housing market • Americans’ spending plans still on hold • Weak labor market has weakened again • Inflationary pressures still high in travel • Ongoing debt crisis • Threat of higher taxes

  6. It’s the Consumer Corporations, Stupid!

  7. Consumer Confidence Plummets…Just can’t sustain consumer confidence Lowest since April 2009 44.5 as of August 90.0 is considered healthy 1985 = 100 Source: The Conference Board, August 30, 2011

  8. Consumer Confidence…Heading in the wrong direction 90 considered “healthy” 66.0 44.5 25.3 1985 = 100 Source: The Conference Board

  9. August Consumer Confidence Index for Past Five Years… 1985 = 100 Source: The Conference Board

  10. Even upper-income Americans are concerned

  11. Overall Traveler Sentiment IndexTMAn uptick in July Interest in travel Time for travel Money available for travel Affordability of travel Quality of service Safety of travel in U.S. March 2007 = 100 Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  12. Younger Americans the Most Positive about Travel Traveler Sentiment Scores Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  13. And their Positiveness is Gaining Traveler Sentiment Scores Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  14. Affordability of Travel Index… Regains some ground March 2007 = 100 Gas price rise Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  15. But travel prices still outpacing inflation Percentage change through July 2011 YTD TPI = +6.7% YTD CPI = +2.9% Does not include various fees Source: U.S. Travel Association Travel Price Index

  16. The cost of flying…Higher prices, fees, fees and more fees • Carry-on bags • Checked bags • Changed flights • Booking by phone • Preferred seating • Cut-the-line • Curb-side check-in • Change to earlier flight • Lavatory use (Ryan Air) $9.2 billion in fees to U.S. airlines in 2010 for checked baggage/other services. TSA estimates there were 59 million more carry-ons in 2010 than in 2009.

  17. Gas prices up $0.85 from last year…Price of gas still a financial issue facing travelers Source: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report as of September 20, 2011 www.aaa.org

  18. Good News…Looks like gas prices will be declining Source: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report as of September 20, 2011 www.aaa.org

  19. Relevance of Travel & Tourism…Right up there with other necessities After pumping $60 of gas into his Chevy pickup, Chuck says he’s giving up cigarettes, beer and a vacation. “I’ll sit at home and cook out and won’t go anywhere.” Source: USA Today, Friday, March 11, 2001

  20. Interest in Travel Remains Strong Traveler Sentiment Scores Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  21. But affordability of travel remains elusive Traveler Sentiment Scores Deep discounts & deals Positive Negative Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  22. And “money available for travel” not back to pre-recession levels Traveler Sentiment Scores Positive Negative Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  23. Travel Performance…We are digging out of the hole

  24. First Half 2011 Travel Performance…Looking good Domestic Business Volume Domestic Leisure Volume Domestic Volume Domestic Spending 1.9% 2.6% 2.8% 7.8% Source: U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics

  25. Leisure Travel Trends

  26. States Planning to Visit on Future Leisure Trip… • Florida 33% • California 33% • Hawaii 31% • Alaska 24% • Colorado 22% • New York 20% • Arizona 18% • Nevada 17% • Texas 17% • Washington 16% Among all U.S. adults Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  27. Interest in Visiting CO Varies by Generation… Gen X knocking at your door Which states are you interested in visiting on a future leisure trip? Among all U.S. adults Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  28. And by household income Which states are you interested in visiting on a future leisure trip? Among all U.S. adults Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  29. Domestic Leisure Visitors…Exceeded the 2007 high last year Millions of Person-Trips Bah! Source: U.S. Travel Association

  30. 56% of U.S. adults planning at least one leisure trip between August and January 7 million more travelers Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  31. Leisure travel intentions highest in the West…Good news for Colorado Plan to take a leisure trip between August 2011 and January 2012 49% 54% Lowest on record 62% October 2008 = 62% October 2009 = 50% 57% Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership travelhorizons™ , July 2011

  32. And among Gen Xers and Matures…More good news for Colorado Plan to take a leisure trip between August 2011 and January 2012 Source: U.S. Travel Association/YPartnership travelhorizons™, July 2011

  33. Financial factors influencing leisure travel…Most not really travel related Q: To what degree is each of the following financial issues currently affecting your leisure vacation plans over the next 12 months? (Somewhat to much less likely to travel) Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  34. Reasons for taking more leisure trips…3 Rs -- Rest, Relax, Reconnect • Reconnect with family/fiends (43%) • Relieve stress/need to relax (34%) • Break from home/work routine (26%) • Have put off traveling due to economy – feeling housebound (25%) Q: Why are you planning on taking more leisure trips during the next 6 months? Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  35. Outlook through January 2012 • Still willing to travel, but making adjustments in spending • Still traveling close to home • Overnight leisure trips shorter in duration • More day trips • More long weekend getaways • Plans can change, but….. Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  36. Vacations are Needed Now More than Ever!

  37. Business Travelers…Not what it used to be

  38. Incidence of Business Travel Down 14 Points Over Past 5 Years, but Stabilizing Percent taking business trip in past year Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  39. Domestic business travel inches up…Well below 1998 record high Millions of Person-Trips Ouch! Source: U.S. Travel Association

  40. Business travel… The province of the young Plan to take a business trip between August 2011 and January 2012 Source: U.S. Travel Association/Ypartnership, travelhorizonsTM, July 2011

  41. Lodging Trends

  42. Hotel demand… Stronger than expected Percent change in room-nights sold over prior year 2010 2011 Source: Smith Travel Research, September 2011

  43. Revenue Per Available Room positive…Driven primarily by rising demand Percent change over prior year 2011 2010 Source: Smith Travel Research, September 2011

  44. Top down recovery for lodging% change in RevPAR through August 2011 by tier Source: Smith Travel Research, September 2011

  45. % change in RevPAR through August 2011 -Getting better 7.3 5.8 3.0 12.6 6.5 8.2 10.0% or more 7.5% to 9.9% 7.3 1.9 5.0% to 7.4% 0.0% to 4.9% Decrease Source: Smith Travel Research, August 2011

  46. Hotel Performance Through August 2011Mountain region and Colorado doing quite nicely 2011 versus 2010 Source: Smith Travel Research, September, 2011

  47. STR Forecasts for 2011 and 2012ADR drives up RevPAR Source: Smith Travel Research, July 2011

  48. Air Travel Faces a Bevy of Challenges…Pat downs, no snacks, too many checked bags

  49. Transportation demand “unsettled”

  50. International air enplanements…Outpacing domestic

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