Progress Toward Implementation of Longitudinal Growth

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Implementation of HB 04-1433. 2. Technical Advisory Committee. The Longitudinal Technical Advisory Committee is composed of the following members:Karen Stroup, CDE, Committee ChairpersonDr. Robert Linn, University of ColoradoRichard Wenning, Colorado League of Charter SchoolsDr. Glynn Ligon, ESP Solutions GroupTerri Rayburn-Davis, Fund for Colorado's FutureChris Olsen, Fund for Colorado's FutureDr. Ken Turner, Academy Twenty SchoolsDr. Kevin Matter, Cherry Creek SchoolsDiana Sirko, Asp34240

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Progress Toward Implementation of Longitudinal Growth

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1. Implementation of HB 04-1433 1 Progress Toward Implementation of Longitudinal Growth HB-04-1433

2. Implementation of HB 04-1433 2 Technical Advisory Committee The Longitudinal Technical Advisory Committee is composed of the following members: Karen Stroup, CDE, Committee Chairperson Dr. Robert Linn, University of Colorado Richard Wenning, Colorado League of Charter Schools Dr. Glynn Ligon, ESP Solutions Group Terri Rayburn-Davis, Fund for Colorado’s Future Chris Olsen, Fund for Colorado’s Future Dr. Ken Turner, Academy Twenty Schools Dr. Kevin Matter, Cherry Creek Schools Diana Sirko, Aspen School District Dr. Elliott Asp, Cherry Creek Schools Dianne Kress, IMS, CDE Dan Domagala, IMS, CDE Dr. Dianne Lefly, Assessment, CDE The Longitudinal TAC has been meeting regularly since its inception.

3. Implementation of HB 04-1433 3 Development of the Models Dr. Damian Betebenner (Boston College) was contracted to develop the mixed-effect models, perform the analyses, and provide reports and interpretation for the TAC. Dr. Harold Doran (American Institutes of Research) worked with Dr. Betebenner on model development.

4. Implementation of HB 04-1433 4 Specification of the Model Two Models considered: Two level mixed-effects model: Test occasion within student. Three-level mixed-effects model: Test occasion within student; student within school. The state student ID number was only available for the 2003 and 2004 CSAP. Mixed-effects model analyses were performed on 2003 and 2004 reading and math data matched by state student ID. CDE provided matched student data for input into the models. Only students with complete data were included in these analyses since a minimum of 2 years of data was needed.

5. Implementation of HB 04-1433 5 Preliminary Findings Models 1 and 2 varied little for student results so Model 1 (two-level model) was selected for further analyses. Results indicated that 10th grade proficiency targets for elementary school children appeared to be too far into the future to yield meaningful results. TAC members suggested that a shorter time period might result in a more meaningful results

6. Implementation of HB 04-1433 6 Inconsistency of Elementary Results Using Grade 10 Proficiency Target “Using grade 3 and 4 reading scores, 1,873 of 2,550 (73%) of those who were ‘Unsatisfactory’ in both grades were projected to be proficient in grade 10.” Betebenner, 9/28/04 & 2/12/05 “Using grade 3 and 4 reading scores, 601 of 1870 (32%) of those who were ‘Partially Proficient’ in both grades were projected to be proficient in grade 10.” Betebenner, 9/28/04 and 2/12/05

7. Implementation of HB 04-1433 7 Revised Proficiency Projection Targets

8. Implementation of HB 04-1433 8 Reanalysis Reanalysis of data to include both 10th grade proficiency target and proficiency target closer to current grade The closer proficiency targets provided more credible results. Using grade 3 and 4 reading scores and a proficiency target of grade 5, three percent (3%) of those who were ‘Unsatisfactory’ in both grades 3 and 4 were projected to be proficient in grade 5. (Betebenner 10/30/04)

9. Implementation of HB 04-1433 9 Reports Using revised projection targets, preliminary reports have been prepared, critiqued and revised. The TAC plans to present the revised reports to focus groups of district personnel to assist the TAC in evaluating the utility of the information to be provided to school districts.

10. Implementation of HB 04-1433 10 Example of Middle School Graph (Betebenner)

11. Implementation of HB 04-1433 11 Example of Middle School Student Level Report* (Betebenner)

12. Implementation of HB 04-1433 12 Example of Elementary School Student Level Report (Ligon)

13. Implementation of HB 04-1433 13 Progress Summary The TAC has made a great deal of progress toward the implementation of HB-04-1433. Important issues have not yet been addressed. Models using more than two years of data need to be evaluated. The 2005 CSAP will provide the third year of data with state student ID number. More data should lend stability to projected scores, but also will introduce issues such as incomplete data for some students.

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