Analysis of annual inventory data in maine
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Analysis of Annual Inventory Data in Maine. Kenneth M. Laustsen, Biometrician Maine Forest Service (MFS) NE FIA Users’ Meeting - Sturbridge, MA April 13, 2004. 3 Analysis Categories.

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Analysis of Annual Inventory Data in Maine

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Analysis of annual inventory data in maine

Analysis of Annual Inventory Data in Maine

Kenneth M. Laustsen, Biometrician

Maine Forest Service (MFS)

NE FIA Users’ Meeting - Sturbridge, MA

April 13, 2004


3 analysis categories

3 Analysis Categories

  • Pass-Through to Northeastern Research Station (NERS) usually a spatial estimate of a specific polygonal area or a owner’s landbase

  • In-house (requests by the Maine Forest Service, Department of Conservation, Governor’s Office, or Maine Users)

  • Enhanced Collaboration (combinations of P2, P3, auxiliary MFS data, and models)


Pass through

I serve as the facilitator and a conduit to help users frame their request to NERS in regard to:

Area of interest

Species

Products

Table outputs

5 –6 requests per year

Examples include:

Due diligence for a prospective timberland acquisition

A large NIPF (1 Million acres) comparing their in-house inventory to exact FIA data

Shrub/Seedling/Sapling composition in IF&W Habitat Management Zones

Descriptive analysis of a watershed (Salmon Habitat)

Pass-Through


Pass through cont

Pass-Through cont.

  • For this category, I do not see the analysis results!


In house

In-House

  • This is the most frequent category for analysis requests (Average of 1 per month)

  • As a full-fledged cooperator, I have to be sensitive, respectful, and law-abiding in regards to the confidentiality issues surrounding some of the data

  • These analysis requests are more broad scale, I.e. simple working circles, entire counties, or statewide estimates


In house examples

Northern White Cedar Inventory for Aroostook County (Sawmill)

Merchantable inventory within a 100 mile radius of Fort Kent, ME (E D Director)

White Birch inventory and quality in the Western Maine FIA unit (E D Director)

Available Spruce-Fir inventory that is 5.0” to 8.9” DBH, log quality, and within 100 miles of Greenville, ME (sawmill expansion)

Available Spruce-Fir inventory within 50 miles of Dover-Foxcroft, ME (sawmill expansion)

In-House, examples


In house examples cont

100 mile wood basket

of White Pine pulpwood (pulp mill looking for a cheaper fiber source)

of hemlock pulp (pulp mill looking for a cheaper fiber source)

of white pine (potential new supply source for OSB plant)

Bio-diversity indices – distance of P2 plot to nearest road, 15”+ dbh TPA live, dead, snag

Volume distribution between sawlog and topwood

Projected annual Spruce-Fir ingrowth over next 10 years

In-House, examples cont.


Enhanced collaboration

Enhanced Collaboration

  • This category uses the synergy from combining multiple data sources and predictive models to produce estimates and analysis that are either uncommon or unique, but always interesting

  • Infrequent (3 – 4 per year), but much more time-consuming


White pine management in the core area 1959 2001

White Pine Management in the Core Area (1959 – 2001)

  • Focused analysis on inventory, trends, and change in the southern 1/3 of Maine that contains 2/3’s of the White Pine Inventory (FIA data and MFS Data)

    • Land Use Changes

    • Forestland Conversion (P2 vs. MFS Reports)

    • Trends in Forest types and stand size

    • Product volume and log grades

    • Growth vs. Removals (P2 vs. MFS Processor Reports)


Soil erosion prediction

Soil Erosion Prediction

  • Combining data from P2 and P3 plots for input into the the Disturbed WEPP model, resulting in a probability prediction of an annual runoff, erosion, and sediment estimate for three types of plot areas:

    • Undisturbed

    • Harvested

    • 1998 Ice Storm


Ice storm damage vs tree condition

Ice Storm Damage vs. Tree Condition

  • Current poster session presents an analysis of the correlation between changes in Tree Condition between 1995 and a subsequent annual P2 remeasurement (2001 – 2003) to 4 preliminary damage assessment groups aerially conducted by the MFS immediately following the 1998 Ice Storm.


White birch availability regional

White Birch Availability - Regional

  • Pride Manufacturing, located in Maine and Wisconsin, is the world’s largest producer of golf tees (standard, oversized, and customized).

  • The wood drain area for the Burnham, ME mill encompasses over 200 air miles.

  • With NERS help, an analysis of the availability of suitable White Birch Inventory within a 4-state region (MA, ME, NH, VT) was provided.


Trees to oil pyrolysis

Trees to Oil – Pyrolysis

  • Received a request in January 2003, for an estimate of available fiber sources (residue or biomass) that were not committed to existing processing and deliverable to an existing pulp/paper mill complex.

  • Utilized P2 estimates of separate biomass components (bolewood, limbs and tops, foliage, stumps and roots, cull trees, salvable dead trees, saplings, and shrubs for selected 60 mile drain areas around 3 multiple mill groups.


Pyrolysis cont

Pyrolysis, cont.

  • Utilized MFS annual county-level harvest estimates of various products (sawlogs, sawmill residue, pulpwood, biomass chips, and hog fuel) for determination of an existing annual removal volume (dry tons) as a percentage of standing inventory, ~ 2%.

  • Assumed that the same 2% volume basis of other un-utilized biomass components (branches, cull trees, salvable dead trees, and saplings) were available, removable, and deliverable with existing infrastructure.


Analysis of annual inventory data in maine

  • 5 mills in the Southwest (blue polygon) have access to 7,000 dry tons per day

  • 5 mills in the Downeast Region (red polygon) have access to 8,500 dry tons per day

  • 1 mill in the North has access to 2,500 dry tons per day


Trends in hardwood sawtimber

Trends in Hardwood Sawtimber

  • In October 2001, based on the completion of 2 annual panels, I analyzed hardwood sawtimber trends from 1959 – 2000 focusing on 5 species (Red Maple, Sugar Maple, Yellow Birch, White Birch, and Red Oak) and their :

    • Average sawtimber tree size (QMD)

    • Volume per acre of sawtimber

    • Proportion of sawtimber by various grades


Trends cont

Trends, cont.

  • On Thursday, I will revisit the exact same topic with the exact same association, refreshing the analysis to represent the current 4 annual panels.

    • Has the forecast changed? NO

    • Is the forecast more accurate?YES


Greenhouse gas carbon credits

Greenhouse Gas & Carbon Credits

  • Maine has a legislative mandate to reverse its level of greenhouse gas emissions by 2010.

  • Achieving this goal requires understanding trends and current estimates of the various contributors to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions.

  • As the following graph shows, these early estimates placed the LUCF (Land Use Change and Forestry) category as being the #2 problem area, and responsible for emitting 19% of the 2000 GHG mix.


Ghg cont

GHG, cont.

  • MFS with the help of the NERS, an Ag-Forestry Working Group, and other consultants has been actively rebutting those estimates and trends, while offering better data and methods for accounting for Carbon within Maine’s forest resources.

  • GHG is not just a Maine problem, but has far-reaching implications throughout the NE and Canada.

  • How much cash are you willing to accept today, to store carbon on the stump for the next 25 years, in lieu of a future harvest?


Questions

Questions


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