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10-year network development plan ERGEG recommendations. Benoît ESNAULT Commission de Régulation de l’Energie 17th Madrid Forum Madrid, 15 January 2010. Overview of the ERGEG work on 10 Year Network Development Plan. ERGEG’s approach

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10 year network development plan ergeg recommendations

10-year network development planERGEG recommendations

Benoît ESNAULT

Commission de Régulation de l’Energie

17th Madrid Forum

Madrid, 15 January 2010


Overview of the ergeg work on 10 year network development plan
Overview of the ERGEG work on 10 Year Network Development Plan

  • ERGEG’s approach

    • Prepare the implementation of the 3rd package: ACER will have to give an opinion on EU wide 10YNDP and monitor its implementation

    • Focus on methodology and expected content

    • ERGEG work started in 2008, in parallel with GTE+

  • Documents published

    • ERGEG recommendations, March 2009

    • Evaluation of comments paper, November 2009

  • Public consultation and workshops

    • Online consultation from 25 March to 29 May 2009

    • 1st ERGEG workshop on 29 April 2009

    • 2nd ERGEG workshop on 27 October 2009

  • Publication of ERGEG revised recommendations in the beginning of 2010

  • Network simulation project (ongoing)


Recent regulatory developments a key role for the 10 yndp
Recent regulatory developments Plana key role for the 10 YNDP

3rd Package

SoS Regulation

Infrastructure standards for crisis management

Infrastructure development related to the single market

EU 10 YNDP

  • Scenarios and simulations

  • Assessment of existing infrastructures & projects

  • Monitoring report

Prospective

 Risk mitigation

Investment notification

 Monitoring


10 yndp in the 3rd package acer and gas regulations
10 YNDP in the 3rd package PlanACER and Gas Regulations

Community wide 10 year network development plan (EU 10 YNDP)

The ENTSOG shall adopt and publish a EU 10 YNDP every 2 years (Art. 8 - Gas Regulation)

The ENTSOG shall conduct an extensive consultation process, at an early stage, involving all relevant market participants (Art. 10 - Gas Regulation)

The EU 10 YNDP shall include the modeling of the integrated network, scenario development, a European supply and adequacy report and an assessment of the resilience of the system (Art. 8 - Gas Regulation)

TheAgency shall provide an opinion on the EU 10 YNDP and monitor its implementation (Art. 6 - ACER Regulation)

The Agency shall review “national ten year network development plans” to assess their consistency with the EU 10 YNDP (Art. 8 - Gas Regulation)

Regional Investment plans

  • TSOs shall publish a regional investment plan every 2 years, and may take investment decisions based on that regional investment plan (Art. 12 - Gas Regulation)

    • Multiannual investment plans?

    • Perimeter of the region?


10 yndp in the 3rd package gas directive
10 YNDP in the 3rd package PlanGas Directive

  • Individual TSOs 10 YNDP

  • The obligations of the TSOs vary according to the unbundling model chosen by the Member State

  • The ISO has to comply with a 10 YNDP monitored by the NRA (Art. 14, Gas Directive)

  • ITO: NRA has to consult the users, examine consistency with the EU 10 YNDP and may require amendments. NRA can take measures to ensure the realization of an investment – Focus on three years ahead (Art. 22 Gas directive)

  • NRA monitors investment plans of the TSOs and provide an assessment as regards to their consistency with the EU 10 YNDP (Art. 41 Gas directive)


Ergeg s recommendations
ERGEG’s recommendations Plan

Objectives of the 10 year network development plan

Provide a shared vision of the European gas dynamics to all stakeholders: tool for transparency

Identification of bottlenecks and investment gaps: beneficial to competition and security of supply

Content of the plan

Built on assumptions and scenarios for supply/demand

Simulations of disruptions using a model of the integrated network

Map of gas flows and international bottlenecks

Include a monitoring report to identify deviations from the precedent plan update on potential delays

Methodology: combine top down & bottom up

Top down: broad vision of the European gas dynamics, energy strategy and risks, harmonization of assumptions and coherence of data (when possible)

Bottom-up: collection of national data on supply & demand

Importance of stakeholders consultation


Ergeg public consultation main conclusions
ERGEG Public consultation PlanMain conclusions

22 responses received published on http://www.energy-regulators.eu/

Scope

Include LNG and storage projects when cross border impact

The EU 10 YNDP does not formally aim at influencing market dynamics

Arbitrating between infrastructure projects could be difficult for ENTSOG

Methodology

Select a small number of scenarios including one based on national forecasts and others on Community wide models

Modelling: the model should be developed by ENTSOG in consultation with stakeholders and consistently with the Gas Coordination Group.

The bulk of data should be gathered at a national level – homogenisation of data and review of their coherence at an EU level

Harmonisation of the assumptions and definitions when possible – assumptions on peak day and severe winter conditions should be published


Beyond the 3rd package 10 yndp and security of supply
Beyond the 3rd package Plan10 YNDP and security of supply

Synergies with TEN-E projects

Contribute to identify priority infrastructures

Security of Gas Supply Regulation project, impact on the 10YNDP

Supply standards: supply for protected consumers guaranteed for 60 days according to the 1 out of 20 rule

Infrastructure standards: N-1 rule, reverse flows at all the IPs

Risk assessment based on scenarios

Infrastructure & supply standards will feed the 10YNDP; synergies concerning risk assessment

Relations with the Gas Coordination Group

GCG could contribute to identify investment needs for security of supply purposes

Building the 10 YNDP is a collective process in which the GCG could play an important role


Conclusions
Conclusions Plan

  • ENTSOG will be responsible for the plan

    • Implement the necessary means to be successful and associate its members

    • Scenarios and assumptions will have to be discussed with stakeholders

    • When announced, investment projects translate some commitment from TSOs

    • Provide elements on projects’ feasibility

  • ERGEG expectations

    • 10 YNDP must be more than an aggregation of national plans

    • Be careful about the impact on the market

    • Coherence between national, regional and EU wide investment plans

  • Methodology: develop a pragmatic and flexible approach

    • Learning by doing process, build on lessons learnt from GTE+ process and dialogue with stakeholders

    • Avoid being too prescriptive about methodology from now

  • Way forward

    • Revised recommendations early 2010

    • Workshop on 26 January 2010



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