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2054

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  1. Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current TechnologyRobert SocolowPrinceton UniversityPrinceton, NJ, USAsocolow@princeton.eduIn-Session Workshop on MitigationSBSTA 21December 9, 2004Buenos AiresThis talk is based on a paper of the same title, by Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow, published in the August 13, 2004, issue of Science, 305 (5686), pp. 968-972, and its Supporting Online Material.

  2. Past Emissions Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 14 Historical emissions 7 1.9  0 2104 1954 2004 2054

  3. The Stabilization Triangle Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 14 Currently projected path Stabilization Triangle Interim Goal O Historical emissions 7 Flatpath 1.9  0 2104 1954 2004 2054

  4. Targets Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year Easier CO2 target 14 ~850 ppm Currently projected path Stabilization Triangle O Historical emissions 7 Flatpath Tougher CO2 target ~500 ppm 1.9  0 2104 1954 2004 2054

  5. The Interim Goal and the Stabilization Triangle The Interim Goal: The Same Emissions in 2054 as Today The interim goal is on the path to stabilization below doubling (450-550 ppm). 2054 emissions are projected to be twice those of today, if carbon emissions are ignored.

  6. The Interim Goal is Within Reach • Reasons for optimism: • The world today has a terribly inefficient energy system. • Carbon emissions have zero economic cost. • Most physical plant has a lifetime of less than 50 years.

  7. Wedges Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 14 14 GtC/y Currently projected path Seven “wedges” O Historical emissions 7 GtC/y 7 Flatpath 1.9  0 2104 1954 2004 2054

  8. 1 GtC/yr Total = 25 Gigatons carbon 50 years What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is an activity reducing the rate of carbon build-up in the atmosphere that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 Gt(C)/yr.

  9. Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges Renewable Electricity and Fuels CO2 Capture and Storage Energy Efficiency & Conservation 14 GtC/y Stabilization Triangle Fuel Switch Forests & Soils 7 GtC/y 2004 2054 Nuclear Fission

  10. Humanity Already has the Tools • READINESS: All wedge technologies are already deployed somewhere at commercial scale. • PORTFOLIO: No single wedge technology can do the whole job, or even half the job. • CHOICE: Not every wedge technology is needed.

  11. Efficiency and Conservation transport buildings power industry Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge: 2 billion cars at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg. lifestyle

  12. Wind Electricity • Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge: • Two million 1 MW windmills. • Today: 40,000 (2%) Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind Industry Association)

  13. Power with Carbon Capture and Storage Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge: Carbon capture and storage at 800 GW coal power plants. Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy

  14. Carbon Storage Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge: 3500 Sleipners A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today Start now to gain experience with the permitting of storage sites. Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA

  15. Biofuels Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge: Two billion 60 mpg cars running on biofuels 250 million hectares of high-yield crops (one sixth of world cropland). Usina Santa Elisa mill in Sertaozinho, Brazil (http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/searchpix.cgi?getrec=5691971&display_type=verbose&search_reverse=1_

  16. Natural Stocks Forests Soils Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge: Eliminate tropical deforestation and Rehabilitate 400 million hectares (Mha) temperate or 300 Mha tropical forest Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge: Conservation tillage on all cropland.. Photo: SUNY Stonybrook Photo: Brazil: Planting with a jab planter. FAO

  17. Other Wedges ELECTRICITY • Natural gas for coal • Nuclear power • Power from photovoltaics (PV) FUELS • Synthetic fuel from coal, natural gas, and biofuels, with carbon capture and storage • Hydrogen from coal and natural gas, with carbon capture and storage • Hydrogen from nuclear energy • Hydrogen from wind or PV METHANE MANAGEMENT • landfill gas, cattle, rice, natural gas

  18. Consensus Building at COP-10 • Advocates of particular wedges agree: • 1. The best wedges for one country may not be the best for another. • 2. It is too soon to pick “winners.” • 3. The environmental and social costs of scale-up need attention. • 4. Subsidy of early stages is often desirable. • 5. At later stages, markets help to choose the best wedges. • Can a consensus in favor of early action be built on stabilization wedges?

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