Future Outlook for Air Quality Forecasting in the United States. Real Time Air Pollution Data Exchange and Forecast Workshop Copenhagen, Denmark April 7-8, 2005 Gary Foley, Director, USEPA, National Exposure Research Laboratory. Presentation Overview.
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Future Outlook for
Air Quality Forecastingin the United States
Real Time Air Pollution Data Exchange and Forecast Workshop
April 7-8, 2005
Gary Foley, Director, USEPA,
National Exposure Research Laboratory
Actions by EPA, State, and other regulatory agencies
Actions and behavioral changes by regu-lated com-munity
Reduced amount or toxicity of emissions
Improved ambient conditions
Reduced exposure or body burden
Improved Human or ecological health
Data Unavailable at present Time
Measures of Human/Eco- Health Response
Test bed project
Alaskan Fire Complexes June 30, 2004
Data source: NASA MODIS-Aqua
18 July 2004 Smoke from Alaskan/Yukon Fires Over U.S.
19 July 2004 Smoke from Alaskan/Yukon Fires Impact U.S.
Regional PM2.5 Composition Measurementsfor Carbon and Sulfate in US Midwest States
Increase Carbon Mass in In-situ Speciation Trends Network indication of Alaskan Fire Influences on Regional Concentrations surface PM2.5.
12 September 2002
Linear Interpolation Surface PM2.5 Monitors
Satellite measurements capture important spatial gradients and meteorology influences, extremely important for public health side of air quality.
CMAQ Modeling System
Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5)
(WRF in 2005)
NOAA Weather Observations
EPA Emissions Inventory
Met-Chem Interface Processor (MCIP)
Met. data prep
Anthro and Biogenic Emissions processing
CMAQ AQ Model-
Hourly 3-D Gridded Chemical Concentrations
Connection to Environmental Public Health Tracking
Partnership in Air Quality Forecasting
AQI: Peak Aug 22
EPA Monitoring Network
Linked numerical prediction system
Operationally integrated on NOAA/NWS’s supercomputer
Gridded forecast guidance products
Delivered to NWS Telecommunications Gateway and EPA for users to pull 2x daily
State & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA
Public and Private Sector AQ constituents
7/21/04: 8-hour Peak Ozone
7/22/04: 8-hour Peak Ozone
Forecast and Observed Surface Ozone Distributions
Current: 1-day forecast guidance for ozone
Intermediate (5-7 years):
Longer range (within 10 years):
- Fusing data sets with Bayesian techniques(daily, pollutant concentrations for PHASE)
Adjusted CMAQ model estimates of SO4 particulate (μg/m3) for July 2001. Observed values are used to offset model biases.
Original CMAQ model estimates of SO4 particulate (μg/m3) for July 2001. Observed values are indicated, but model results are not influenced by them.
Spatial Interpolation Service
Percent increase in monthly mortality per increase in
1 µg/m3 of PM2.5 concentrations (June, 2000).
Change in monthly percent increase in mortality by adding ozone predictive surface
“Accountability Within New Ozone Standards”, ES&T, Nov. 1, 2003
Today, it is possible to
New 8 hour O3 Std
90 million people
exposed to levels
at or above the
Old 1 hour O3 Std
5 million people
exposed to levels
at or above the