Background air quality in the united states under current and future emissions scenarios
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Background Air Quality in the United States Under Current and Future Emissions Scenarios. Zachariah Adelman, Meridith Fry, J. Jason West Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering University of North Carolina Pat Dolwick , Carey Jang Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

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Background air quality in the united states under current and future emissions scenarios

Background Air Quality in the United States Under Current and Future Emissions Scenarios

Zachariah Adelman, MeridithFry, J. Jason West

Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering

University of North Carolina

Pat Dolwick, Carey Jang

Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

United States Environmental Protection Agency

Presented at the 10th Annual CMAS Conference

October 24-26, 2011 Chapel Hill, NC


Motivation and objectives
Motivation and Objectives and Future Emissions Scenarios

  • Will U.S. background air pollutant concentrations increase in the future?

  • Objectives:

    • Gather and process latest IPCC inventories for current and future year emissions estimates

    • Use MOZART-4 to simulate future air quality resulting from climate change mitigation emissions scenarios

    • Estimate background air quality in the U.S. by “zeroing-out” North American anthropogenic emissions

    • Downscale global modeling results to produce boundary conditions for regional modeling

10th Annual CMAS Conference 1 Chapel Hill, NC


Methods and data
Methods and Data and Future Emissions Scenarios

  • Chemistry-Transport Model: MOZART-4

  • Meteorology: 2005 GEOS-5 1.9°x2.5°

  • Emissions Inventory: 2005 and 2030 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)

    • RCP8.5 – Business as usual emissions

    • RCP4.5 – Best estimate emissions reduction

    • RCP2.6 – Maximum emissions reduction

  • Zero-out North America (ZONA):

    • U.S., Canada, Mexico anthropogenic emissions set to zero

      • Includes near-shore (< 50km) shipping, aircraft < 3km, and fertilizer

10th Annual CMAS Conference 2 Chapel Hill, NC


Methods and data1
Methods and Data and Future Emissions Scenarios

  • Emissions processing with custom IDL and NCL scripts

    • Speciate with RCP to MOZART-4 conversion factors

    • Temporalize with RETRO monthly profiles

    • Regrid to GEOS-5 grid

    • Merge natural and anthropogenic sectors and create MOZART-ready files

Speciate

Temporalize

Regrid

Merge

10th Annual CMAS Conference 3 Chapel Hill, NC


Rcp mozart 4 species
RCP and Future Emissions Scenarios MOZART-4 Species

10th Annual CMAS Conference 4 Chapel Hill, NC


Mozart 4 simulations
MOZART-4 Simulations and Future Emissions Scenarios

  • Simulations using meteorology for 2005

  • July 1 – December 31, 2004 spin-up

  • Fixed methane concentrations

10th Annual CMAS Conference 5 Chapel Hill, NC


Emissions summaries
Emissions Summaries and Future Emissions Scenarios

Global

US

NOx

NMVOC

10th Annual CMAS Conference 6 Chapel Hill, NC


Emissions summaries1
Emissions Summaries and Future Emissions Scenarios

Global

US

BC

OC

10th Annual CMAS Conference 7 Chapel Hill, NC


Base annual max 8 hr o3 results
Base Annual Max 8-hr O3 Results and Future Emissions Scenarios

RCP 8.5 2005

RCP 8.5 2030

RCP 4.5 2030

RCP 2.6 2030

10th Annual CMAS Conference 8 Chapel Hill, NC


Zona annual max 8 hr o3 results
ZONA Annual Max 8-hr O3 Results and Future Emissions Scenarios

RCP 8.5 2005

RCP 8.5 2030

RCP 4.5 2030

RCP 2.6 2030

10th Annual CMAS Conference 9 Chapel Hill, NC


8 hr o3 results
8-hr O3 Results and Future Emissions Scenarios

10th Annual CMAS Conference 10 Chapel Hill, NC


Background u s mean 8 hr o3
Background U.S. mean 8-hr O3 and Future Emissions Scenarios

Background contribution to U.S. mean 8-hr O3

10th Annual CMAS Conference 11 Chapel Hill, NC


U s summer daily max 8 hr o3 frequency distribution
U.S. Summer Daily Max 8-hr O3 Frequency Distribution and Future Emissions Scenarios

10th Annual CMAS Conference 12 Chapel Hill, NC


Base annual max 24 hr non dust pm2 5 results
Base Annual Max 24-hr non-dust PM2.5* Results and Future Emissions Scenarios

*(SO4, NO3, NH4, SOA, EC, and OC)

RCP 8.5 2005

RCP 8.5 2030

RCP 4.5 2030

RCP 2.6 2030

10th Annual CMAS Conference 13 Chapel Hill, NC


Zona annual max 24 hr non dust pm2 5 results
ZONA Annual Max 24-hr non-dust PM2.5 Results and Future Emissions Scenarios

RCP 8.5 2005

RCP 8.5 2030

RCP 4.5 2030

RCP 2.6 2030

10th Annual CMAS Conference 14 Chapel Hill, NC


Pm2 5 results
PM2.5 Results and Future Emissions Scenarios

10th Annual CMAS Conference 15 Chapel Hill, NC


Speciated u s annual max pm2 5
Speciated and Future Emissions Scenarios U.S. Annual Max PM2.5

10th Annual CMAS Conference 16 Chapel Hill, NC


Conus36 cmaq annual max 1 hr o3 bcs
CONUS36 CMAQ Annual Max 1-hr O3 BCs and Future Emissions Scenarios

RCP8.5 2005

RCP8.5 2030

S N

E W

S N

E W

S N

E W

S N

E W

RCP4.5 2030

RCP2.6 2030

10th Annual CMAS Conference 17 Chapel Hill, NC


Conus36 cmaq annual max 1 hr pm2 5 bcs
CONUS36 CMAQ Annual Max 1-hr PM2.5 BCs and Future Emissions Scenarios

RCP8.5 2030

S N

E W

S N

E W

S N

E W

RCP4.5 2030

RCP2.6 2030

10th Annual CMAS Conference 18 Chapel Hill, NC


Conclusions
Conclusions and Future Emissions Scenarios

  • These results indicate that only the emissions scenario that pursued extremely aggressive climate change mitigation (RCP2.6) lead to reductions in global O3 burden and U.S. background O3 and PM2.5 concentrations.

  • Annual maximum U.S. 8-hr O3 concentrations and frequency of high (> 70 ppb) 8-hr O3 events are predicted to decrease in all simulated future emissions cases, likely due to domestic emission controls

  • Contribution of background to total U.S. O3 concentrations predicted to increase in the future (~2-5% to annual mean and up to 10% to summer mean): combination of rise in transported O3 and drop in domestic O3 production

10th Annual CMAS Conference 19 Chapel Hill, NC


Future work
Future Work and Future Emissions Scenarios

  • Probe MOZART process-level output to gain a better understanding of the differences between the RCP results

  • Run CMAQ with the downscaled 2005 and 2030 BCs and recalculate U.S. background concentrations

10th Annual CMAS Conference 20 Chapel Hill, NC


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