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Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego

Planning for climate change in California substantial shifts on top of already high climate variability. Calit2 100G and Beyond UCSD 2/26/2013. Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego

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Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego

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  1. Planning for climate change in California substantial shifts on top of already high climate variability Calit2 100G and Beyond UCSD 2/26/2013 Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego much support from Mary Tyree, Mike Dettinger, Guido Franco and other colleagues Sponsors: California Energy Commission NOAA RISA program California DWR, DOE, NSF

  2. GCMs ~150km downscaled to Regional models ~ 12km Many simulations IPCC AR4 and IPCC AR5 have been downscaled using statistical methods Global to Regional Downscaling INCREASING VOLUME OF CLIMATE SIMULATIONS in comparison to 4th IPCC (CMIP3) GCMs : Latest generation CMIP5 models provide: more simulations higher spatial resolution more developed process representation daily output is more available

  3. GFDL A2 1km downscaled to 1km Hugo Hidalgo Tapash Das Mike Dettinger average summer afternoon temperature average summer afternoon temperature

  4. Uncertainty is substantial in climate projections Temperature Change 14 GCMs X 3 RCP emissions Scenarios IPCC 5th Assessment (CMIP5) models

  5. HOW MUCH CALIFORNIA SNOW LOSS ? Initial projections indicate substantialreduction in snow water for Sierra Nevada+ declining Apr 1 SWE: 2050 median SWE ~ 2/3 historical median 2100 median SWE ~ 1/3 historical median

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