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Scripps Inst. of Oceanography University of California at San Diego

Scripps Inst. of Oceanography University of California at San Diego Oakland, California, October 18, 2013. V. Ramanathan, University of California, San Diego, October 21, 2013. ICAMP Inaugural Session. Los Angeles Civic Center masked by smog in 1948.

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Scripps Inst. of Oceanography University of California at San Diego

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  1. Scripps Inst. of Oceanography University of California at San Diego Oakland, California, October 18, 2013 V. Ramanathan, University of California, San Diego, October 21, 2013. ICAMP Inaugural Session

  2. Los Angeles Civic Center masked by smog in 1948 SOURCE: Los Angeles Times photographic archive, UCLA Library

  3. California Environmental Protection Agency Air Resources Board In 1967, California’s Legislature established the California Air Resources Board (CARB). CARB has worked with the public, the business sector, and local governments to find solutions to California’s air pollution problem.

  4. Air Pollution is a Major Killer A New International Study was released this year (Sponsored by WHO): Lin et al, LANCET, 2013 Ambient particulate matter pollution accounted for 3·1 million (2·7 million to 3·5 million) premature deaths every year

  5. . Premature mortality due to PM2.5. NASA Earth Observatory, 2013. Dark brown regions experience more than 1000 deaths per 1000 square kilometers.

  6. SCIENCE INFORMING POLICYThree year, Multi-Institution study How Has California’s air quality Changed with time? • University of California at San Diego • University of California at Berkeley • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory • Pacific Northwest National Laboratories http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/single-project.php?row_id=64841 LEAD Investigator: V. Ramanathan

  7. Black Carbon (BC): Product of Incomplete Combustion • The major component of PM from the Diesel Transportation Sector • About 75% of PM from Diesel Mobile sources is BC • The second largest contributor to global warming • Contributes directly to melting of snow packs, glaciers, and sea ice Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323

  8. Black Carbon Trends in California: Detection Remote sites Mostly Urban sites Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323

  9. Statewide BC Trends in California-Annual Mean(Remote Sites) Source: Bahadur et al, 2010 Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323

  10. 40 Years of Progress on Diesel Soot Source: Kirchstetter et al. (2011) Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323

  11. Air pollution reduced 75-90% despite growthReproduced from: B. Croes, 2013 (CARB) Carbon Monoxide Nitrogen Oxide Vehicle Miles Sulfur Dioxide Number of Vehicles Population Ozone – Los Angeles peak cut over 70%, hours of exposure reduced 90% PM10 – annual-average levels cut 75% Air toxics – over 80% cancer risk reduction (since 1989)

  12. The important lesson to be learned is that cleaning up the air does not necessarily deter development The Co-Benefits are Huge

  13. Co-Benefit of Diesel Black Carbon Reduction To Climate Change Mitigation California’s CO2 emission (2009 ): 393 MMT/Yr • The reduction in diesel BC emissions from 1989 to 2008, is equivalent to reducing CO2 emissions by 21 (to 50) million metric tons annually However, simultaneous mitigation of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels is essential to limit global warming below 2oC. Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323

  14. Co-Benefits from Ozone precursor Reduction • Reduction in Ozone (smog): • Should have reduced crop loss caused by high Ozone concentrations • Should have mitigated climate change since • Ozone is a powerful greenhouse gas

  15. Why Are We Assembled Here • to examine how California achieved these • impressive gains in air pollution without • compromising development; • Evaluate the nature and magnitude of scientific, • technological and organizational infrastructure • and policy initiatives that are required for India • to make similar progress in the coming decades.

  16. India’s transportation sector is experiencing impressive growth. The number of vehicles has grown from about 20 million in 1991 to about 140 million in 2011. Air pollution has become a major problem. WHO estimates 700,000 deaths each year attributed to air pollution. In cities like Bangalore the transportation sector contributes more than 50% to PM2.5 (as of 2011), nearly the same as in California.

  17. November 14 2006 December 21 2001 What would it take to accomplish similar improvements in air quality of mega cities such as Mumbai, Bangalore, Delhi, Kolkatta and Chennai within the next 30 years, without impeding the economic development of India?

  18. Climate Action Team Report Finally, promoting action regionally and internationally that reduces climate change risks and expands clean energy industries and green jobs is a high priority.

  19. My Personal Commentary California’s successful policies for reducing BC based on targeted Science should serve as a Knowledge to Action example for the World If California’s black carbon reduction from diesel can be replicated globally, the projected global warming for the coming decades can be mitigated by about 10 to15 percent*, slow down glacier melt and sea ice retreat in addition to protecting lives and crops. *based on estimates using the Ramanathan and Xu, PNAS, 2010 study

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