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Modelling Emergency Medical Services

Modelling Emergency Medical Services. Paul Harper, Vince Knight, Janet Williams Leanne Smith, Julie Vile, Jonathan Gillard, Israel Vieira. Forecasting. Location. Response. Forecasting. Location. Response. Data & Demand Patterns. WAST daily demand (01/04/2005-31/12/2009).

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Modelling Emergency Medical Services

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  1. Modelling Emergency Medical Services Paul Harper, Vince Knight, Janet Williams Leanne Smith, Julie Vile, Jonathan Gillard, Israel Vieira

  2. Forecasting Location Response

  3. Forecasting Location Response

  4. Data & Demand Patterns WAST daily demand (01/04/2005-31/12/2009)

  5. Forecasts for December

  6. Forecasting Location Response

  7. Time-dependency

  8. Demand per Shift

  9. Time-dependent Queues • If all servers are busy and only Category B/C patients are in the system, the equilibrium conditions for the state triple S=[i,h,l] are given by:

  10. Staffing

  11. Shift Patterns CONSTRAINTS: • Max weekly working hours • Max night time hours • Rest breaks / days off OBJECTIVES: • Minimise labour hours • Minimise crew size • Minimise overtime

  12. Spreadsheet Tool

  13. Forecasting Location Response

  14. Travel Times - Google Maps API

  15. Location Analysis

  16. Location Analysis EAs RRVs

  17. Computer Simulation

  18. ‘What if?’ Scenarios • Alter demand (e.g. increase by 10%) • Major event • Change in overall fleet capacity • Determine vehicle allocations given different fleet capacities • Reduce turnaround time

  19. Illustrative Results

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