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DTC Verification Activities

DTC Verification Activities. Barbara Brown Director, Joint Numerical Testbed NCAR/RAL 12 August 2009. DTC Verification Activities. Testing and Evaluation: History and Philosophy Statistics and verification methods Verification tools Current testing activities. DTC Time Line. Community

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DTC Verification Activities

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  1. DTC Verification Activities Barbara Brown Director, Joint Numerical Testbed NCAR/RAL 12 August 2009

  2. DTC Verification Activities • Testing and Evaluation: History and Philosophy • Statistics and verification methods • Verification tools • Current testing activities

  3. DTC Time Line Community Codes Visitor Program Test & Evaluate NWP Systems

  4. Testing and Evaluation DTC Philosophy • Independent of development process • Carefully designed test plan • Large number of cases • Broad range of weather regimes • Extensive objective verification, including assessment of statistical significance

  5. Displacement 25 km Displacement 30 km Application of MODE to 4-km WRF Verification research in JNT Goals: • Verification tools that provide meaningful information about forecast performance for forecast improvement and decision making • Spatial methods • Inference methods (“Is model A really better than model B?”) • Methods for particular applications (e.g., winds) • Methods for extreme (high-impact) weather events • Engage community in testing and evaluating new methodologies • Workshops • Method intercomparison project (upcoming special issue of WAF)

  6. DTC community verification tools Model Evaluation Tools (MET): Tressa Fowler • Community software for advanced, state-of-the-art user-oriented forecast verification • Community workshops yearly • New and traditional approaches • MODE, Brown et al. • Neighborhood verification methods • CRA method, Ebert-McBride • Intensity scale, Casati • Probabilistic forecast capabilities http://www.dtcenter.org/met/users/

  7. Current testing and evaluation activities • Hydrometeorological Testbed (Boulder): Ed Tollerud • Demonstration of verification methods for ensemble precipitation forecasts and “atmospheric rivers” over the mountainous West • Hazardous Weather Testbed (Norman, OK): Tara Jensen • Evaluation of impact of radar data assimilation on predictions of severe thunderstorms • T&E in an operational forecasting environment • Comparison of precipitation forecasts from global and regional models • Evaluation of the impacts of a new boundary layer scheme (QNSE) • Support next-generation operational systems (reference configurations)

  8. Discussion topics • EMC suggestions for • DTC testing and evaluation activities • Reference configurations • Collaboration between DTC and EMC on verification methods and method development

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