New Developments of Atmospheric and Oceanic data assimilation systems in China
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New Developments of Atmospheric and Oceanic data assimilation systems in China Jishan Xue, Renhe Zhang Chinese Academy of Meteological Sciences. Outline. Current status of operational systems GRAPES-Var: new assimilation system for atmospheric data

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New Developments of Atmospheric and Oceanic data assimilation systems in China

Jishan Xue, Renhe Zhang

Chinese Academy of Meteological Sciences


Outline

  • Current status of operational systems

  • GRAPES-Var: new assimilation system for atmospheric data

  • Application of ARGO data in oceanic data assimilation

  • Participation in AMY08


Current operational assimilation system in CMA

Operational NWP :

  • Atmospheric data: SSI from NCEP for global, GRAPES-3DVar for regional

  • Oceanic data: not assimilated

    Operational climate model:

  • NCC-GODAS: 3D-variational data assimilation system , time window : 4 weeks, SST only


New developments in atmospheric data assimilation

  • GRAPES-Var will be the new data assimilation system as one component of new NWP system GRAPES

  • GRAPES- Chinese next generation NWP system developed domestically since 2001, partly operationally run since 2006.

  • GRAPES-Var: a variational data assimilation system with stresses at remote sensing data

  • Options of configurations of GRAPES-Var

    GRAPES-3DVar Global, GRAPES-3DVar Meso

    GRAPES-4DVar Global, GRAPES-4DVar Meso


Conventional

DATA

preprocessing

Q.C.

Backgrounds

初始场

Unconventional

DATA

Digital filter

Preprocessing

GRAPES_ MODEL

GRAPES-Var

Forecasting

Q.C.

主要成果之二

Flow chart of GRAPES data assimilation

主要业务应用试验系统

国家气象中心:2004(60公里,全国范围),2005(30公里全国范围)

上海台风研究所: 西太平洋台风预报试验系统(2002-2003历史回报、2004-2005实时预报)

广州区域气象中心:季风区-华南-珠三角三重套网格系统(36/12/3公里),2004起实时预报

B.C. (optionally)


Coverage of data currently available

SYNOP

TEMP

SHIPS

AIREP


Coverage of data currently available

2xAMSU-B (NOAA-16/17)

Winds from 5 GEOS (Met-5/7 GOES-9/10/12)

NOAA16/17

AMSUB

GTS AMVs

NOAA15/16

AMSUA

FY2C AMVs

2xAMSU-A (NOAA-15/16)

Winds from FY2C


No cycle

The impact of new system


Track Forecast (144h)

The impact of new system


The impact of new system

ATOVS资料循环同化对台风强度预报的影响


新一代全球资料同化与中期预报试验系统

全球中期预报(2005-Matsa台风)


Usages of obs. Data with high spatial or temporal resolutions

Data used in GRAPES-CHAF: AWS, VAD,AMV,AMDAR,GPS

CYCLE系统同化的资料列表示例

AMDAR与FY-2云导风

一次同化循环的资料时间与空间分布


新一代中尺度资料同化与预报试验系统

稠密观测资料同化对预报的影响:华南一次暴雨过程(2005年8月13日12时24小时预报)

12小时海平面气压预报

a(左):无逐时同化;b(中):逐时同化;c(右):实况

12小时6h降水预报

a(左):无逐时同化;b(中):逐时同化;c(右):实况


卫 星

地面站

海面滞留约1-6小时

浮标上升时测量海水的温度和盐度

漂 移约10天

Oceanic assimilation: ARGO data

 Q.C. of ARGO data

 Assimilation of ARGO data

 Impact on ENSO prediction

 Impact on short term climate prediction

Argo float


Distribution of Argo Data


OISST_v.2和NCC-GODAS海面温度之间均方根误差(RMS)的经向平均值(2001到2003年8月)

上图:红线和黑线分别为NCC-GODAS中包含和不包含Argo 资料

下图:NCC-GODAS中包含和不包含Argo 资料RMS的差值。


OISST_v.2和NCC-GODAS海面温度之间均方根误差(RMS)的纬向平均值(2001到2003年8月)

上图:红线和黑线分别为NCC-GODAS中包含和不包含Argo 资料

下图:NCC-GODAS中包含和不包含Argo 资料RMS的差值。


NCC-GODAS系统分析的NINO指数(蓝色)与相应NCEP再分析OISST.V2(红色)对比


5°S-5 °N平均SSTA的时间-经度图(左:NCEP OISST.V2;中:NCC-GODAS with ARGO;右:NCC-GODAS without ARGO)


沿赤道STA的垂直剖面图(左: EMC/NCEP;中: NCC-GODAS with ARGO;右:NCC-GODAS without ARGO)


Impact study of Argo data assimilation on seasonal prediction with NCC coupled models (based on hindcasts)


CGCM降水预报技巧(ACC)

1998-2003

1993-2003

有ARGO资料的同化资料

无ARGO资料的同化资料


CGCM温度预报技巧(ACC)

1998-2003

1993-2003

有ARGO资料的同化资料

无ARGO资料的同化资料


2002年夏季降水距平百分率(%)

预报(有ARGO)

观测

预报(无ARGO)


夏季降水距平百分率(%)

2003

2004

预报

观测


  • Results show that initial fields derived by assimilation system with Argo data improve the summer season precipitation predictions.


Participation in AMY08

  • Atmospheric data assimilation : Based on GRAPES-3DVar Global or regional with all available data to be used.

  • Oceanic data assimilation : Based on GODAS

  • Technical issues:

    Q. C. observational data

    More data to be used in GODAS and GRAPES-Var

    Improvement of performance in the AMY domain

    Coupling of two systems


谢谢!

Thank You!


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