New Developments of Atmospheric and Oceanic data assimilation systems in China
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New Developments of Atmospheric and Oceanic data assimilation systems in China Jishan Xue, Renhe Zhang Chinese Academy of Meteological Sciences. Outline. Current status of operational systems GRAPES-Var: new assimilation system for atmospheric data

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New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

New Developments of Atmospheric and Oceanic data assimilation systems in China

Jishan Xue, Renhe Zhang

Chinese Academy of Meteological Sciences


Outline

Outline

  • Current status of operational systems

  • GRAPES-Var: new assimilation system for atmospheric data

  • Application of ARGO data in oceanic data assimilation

  • Participation in AMY08


Current operational assimilation system in cma

Current operational assimilation system in CMA

Operational NWP :

  • Atmospheric data: SSI from NCEP for global, GRAPES-3DVar for regional

  • Oceanic data: not assimilated

    Operational climate model:

  • NCC-GODAS: 3D-variational data assimilation system , time window : 4 weeks, SST only


New developments in atmospheric data assimilation

New developments in atmospheric data assimilation

  • GRAPES-Var will be the new data assimilation system as one component of new NWP system GRAPES

  • GRAPES- Chinese next generation NWP system developed domestically since 2001, partly operationally run since 2006.

  • GRAPES-Var: a variational data assimilation system with stresses at remote sensing data

  • Options of configurations of GRAPES-Var

    GRAPES-3DVar Global, GRAPES-3DVar Meso

    GRAPES-4DVar Global, GRAPES-4DVar Meso


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

Conventional

DATA

preprocessing

Q.C.

Backgrounds

初始场

Unconventional

DATA

Digital filter

Preprocessing

GRAPES_ MODEL

GRAPES-Var

Forecasting

Q.C.

主要成果之二

Flow chart of GRAPES data assimilation

主要业务应用试验系统

国家气象中心:2004(60公里,全国范围),2005(30公里全国范围)

上海台风研究所: 西太平洋台风预报试验系统(2002-2003历史回报、2004-2005实时预报)

广州区域气象中心:季风区-华南-珠三角三重套网格系统(36/12/3公里),2004起实时预报

B.C. (optionally)


Coverage of data currently available

Coverage of data currently available

SYNOP

TEMP

SHIPS

AIREP


Coverage of data currently available1

Coverage of data currently available

2xAMSU-B (NOAA-16/17)

Winds from 5 GEOS (Met-5/7 GOES-9/10/12)

NOAA16/17

AMSUB

GTS AMVs

NOAA15/16

AMSUA

FY2C AMVs

2xAMSU-A (NOAA-15/16)

Winds from FY2C


No cycle

No cycle

The impact of new system


Track forecast 144h

Track Forecast (144h)

The impact of new system


Atovs

The impact of new system

ATOVS资料循环同化对台风强度预报的影响


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

新一代全球资料同化与中期预报试验系统

全球中期预报(2005-Matsa台风)


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

Usages of obs. Data with high spatial or temporal resolutions

Data used in GRAPES-CHAF: AWS, VAD,AMV,AMDAR,GPS

CYCLE系统同化的资料列表示例

AMDAR与FY-2云导风

一次同化循环的资料时间与空间分布


2005 8 13 12 24

新一代中尺度资料同化与预报试验系统

稠密观测资料同化对预报的影响:华南一次暴雨过程(2005年8月13日12时24小时预报)

12小时海平面气压预报

a(左):无逐时同化;b(中):逐时同化;c(右):实况

12小时6h降水预报

a(左):无逐时同化;b(中):逐时同化;c(右):实况


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

卫 星

地面站

海面滞留约1-6小时

浮标上升时测量海水的温度和盐度

漂 移约10天

Oceanic assimilation: ARGO data

 Q.C. of ARGO data

 Assimilation of ARGO data

 Impact on ENSO prediction

 Impact on short term climate prediction

Argo float


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

Distribution of Argo Data


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

OISST_v.2和NCC-GODAS海面温度之间均方根误差(RMS)的经向平均值(2001到2003年8月)

上图:红线和黑线分别为NCC-GODAS中包含和不包含Argo 资料

下图:NCC-GODAS中包含和不包含Argo 资料RMS的差值。


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

OISST_v.2和NCC-GODAS海面温度之间均方根误差(RMS)的纬向平均值(2001到2003年8月)

上图:红线和黑线分别为NCC-GODAS中包含和不包含Argo 资料

下图:NCC-GODAS中包含和不包含Argo 资料RMS的差值。


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

NCC-GODAS系统分析的NINO指数(蓝色)与相应NCEP再分析OISST.V2(红色)对比


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

5°S-5 °N平均SSTA的时间-经度图(左:NCEP OISST.V2;中:NCC-GODAS with ARGO;右:NCC-GODAS without ARGO)


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

沿赤道STA的垂直剖面图(左: EMC/NCEP;中: NCC-GODAS with ARGO;右:NCC-GODAS without ARGO)


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

Impact study of Argo data assimilation on seasonal prediction with NCC coupled models (based on hindcasts)


Cgcm acc

CGCM降水预报技巧(ACC)

1998-2003

1993-2003

有ARGO资料的同化资料

无ARGO资料的同化资料


Cgcm acc1

CGCM温度预报技巧(ACC)

1998-2003

1993-2003

有ARGO资料的同化资料

无ARGO资料的同化资料


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

2002年夏季降水距平百分率(%)

预报(有ARGO)

观测

预报(无ARGO)


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

夏季降水距平百分率(%)

2003

2004

预报

观测


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

  • Results show that initial fields derived by assimilation system with Argo data improve the summer season precipitation predictions.


Participation in amy08

Participation in AMY08

  • Atmospheric data assimilation : Based on GRAPES-3DVar Global or regional with all available data to be used.

  • Oceanic data assimilation : Based on GODAS

  • Technical issues:

    Q. C. observational data

    More data to be used in GODAS and GRAPES-Var

    Improvement of performance in the AMY domain

    Coupling of two systems


New developments of atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation systems in china

谢谢!

Thank You!


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