2010 Seasonal Prediction for Canada

1. 2010 Seasonal Prediction for Canada Kerry Anderson Peter Konopelny

2. Canadian FWI System

3. Methodology • Calculate spring start-up conditions based on fall drought code (DC) values and over-winter precipitation amounts, • Calculate average daily weather for weather stations across country, • Incorporate Environment Canada’s seasonal predictions, • Determine the fire severity based on the ratio of forecasted over average seasonal severity rating (SSR).

4. Ensemble Forecasts Recently, the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) of Environment Canada has begun providing temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecasts based on an ensemble of ten integrations of four independent models: climate ver. of the Global Environmental Multiscale model (GEM-CLIM), 2nd gen. of the Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM2), 3rd gen. of the Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM3), Spectral aux éléments finis (SEF). Forecasts are provided for the next four months.

5. Ensemble Forecasts The ensemble approach provides a measure of confidence indicated by the spread of the ensemble members. The extended forecast continues to use the single, deterministic forecast

6. Past Predictions

7. 2006 Prediction Using hotspots to assess the seasonal outlook, the forecast was good for Southern BC, the Northern Prairies and western Quebec. On the other hand, the forecast was marginal for the Southern Yukon and central Alberta and poor for central Ontario, central Quebec and Labrador.

8. 2006 Prediction Comparing the distribution of the forecasted over average SSR values for all of Canada (area within each prediction value) and for hotspot locations shows that the seasonal forecast had skill at predicting fires for most of Canada.

9. 2007 Prediction The 2007 prediction showed below-average conditions throughout much of Canada. Only Vancouver Island, central Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba show above-average severity.

10. 2007 Prediction As it turned out, 2007 was a quiet fire season with fire activity limited to Quebec, Southeastern BC, and the northern boreal plains.

11. 2008 Prediction May June July August For 2008, monthly predictions indicated an above-average year for most of Canada.

12. 2008 Prediction 2008 turned out to be a quiet fire seasons with only 1.49 million ha burned (10 year average is 7 million ha). July Most of the fire activity (95%) occurred in Saskatchewan and NWT (mainly in July) suggesting that while we over-predicted the severity of the fire season, we correctly predicted the region of peak fire activity.

13. 2009 Prediction May June July August For 2009, monthly predictions indicated an above-average year for western Canada.

14. 2009 Prediction Again, another quiet fire season for most of Canada with only 846 000 ha burned. 6,636  fires 846,484 ha In August, an emergency situation developed in British Columbia burning over 229 000 ha (10 year average 75 000).

15. 2009 Prediction - Manitoba The 2008 season ended with high drought codes around The Pas and Swan River 2007 & 2008 both well below average for fires, with wet freeze-ups in most locations Current winter has had normal snow, heavier in the Lynn Lake corner Overwinter patterns have been a continuation of last summer, with precipitation to the north Winter has been cold, frost is deep, ice is thick

16. 2009 Prediction - Manitoba Spring is late this year, and generally dry in the south Green-up has been slow, with parts of the north still under spring conditions

17. 2010 Starting Conditions

18. Spring Start-up Conditions • The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System allows for the carry-over of fall conditions to the spring. • This is handled by the Drought Code (DC) (similar to the 1000 hour moisture code). • All other moisture codes in the FWI system are reset.

19. Fall Conditions Oct 1, 2009 Oct 20, 2009 Oct 31, 2009 Fall DC values show extreme (dry) conditions throughout much of Western Canada and the Territories with the highest values in and around Alberta.

20. Spring Start-up Conditions El Nino conditions has lead to extremely low overwinter precipitation. These have lead to drought conditions worse than the “Dirty Thirties”

21. Spring Start-up Conditions Canadian Drought monitor indicates a similar drought pattern with Alberta described as in exceptional drought

22. Spring Start-up Conditions Eastern Canada near total recharge of deep fuel moistures. Western Canada shows high spring DC values.

23. Spring Start-up Conditions 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

24. 2010 Start-up DC vs Station Average • The DC start-up anomaly is based on 66 sites with actual values entered • The northern start-up anomalies are projections as the areas are not snow free. • The large NW BC anomaly is based on 3 stations which all had high fall DC values and below normal over winter precipitation.

25. Spring Start-up Conditions In Saskatchewan, serious areas of drought concern extend from Alberta into some western areas of West Boreal, West Parklands and Grassland weather

26. Spring Start-up Conditions In Manitoba, a mild winter and dry spring has resulted in starting Drought Code levels elevated across central and eastern Manitoba

27. ENSO Pattern

28. International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyENSO Quick Look http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html

29. International Research Institute for Climate and SocietySummary of ENSO Model Forecasts http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html

30. El Nino Effects Winter Temperature Precipitation El Nino leads to well-above average temperature and below-average precipitation through much of southern Canada.

31. El Nino Effects Spring Temperature Precipitation El Nino leads to above-average temperatures in the west and below-average precipitation in BC coast and southern Manitoba and Ontario.

32. El Nino Effects Summer Temperature Precipitation El Nino leads to below-average precipitation in central Alberta and Saskatchewan, southern Ontario and Nova Scotia

33. El Nino Effects Manitoba http://www.gov.mb.ca/conservation/fire/Fire-Historical/firestatistic.html Link describes fire history in Manitoba. Of interest to teleconnections with El Nino years?? Any thoughts from ENSO experts?

34. 2010 Seasonal Prediction

35. Seasonal Forecasts CMC AMJ forecast (issued April 1) indicates above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for all of Canada Confidence in temperature forecast is high while confidence in precipitation forecast is low. April-May-June

36. Seasonal Forecasts Above-average temperature forecast is continued through MJJ, while precipitation forecast is returning to normal to above for BC and the Yukon. Confidence is dropping for temperature forecast but increasing for northern Saskatchewan and surrounding. May-June-July

37. Seasonal Forecasts Summer temperature anomalies are high for central and northern Canada. Below-normal precipitation is predicted for the Hudson’s Bay region and for BC, while above-normal precipitation is predicted for the remaining portions of Canada. June-July-August *Deterministic model issued March 1

38. April 2010 Prediction (predicted values normalized against average weather) Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR > 2 for extreme fire weather conditions) Above average conditions in northern and eastern Canada. High fire danger conditions are limited to southern BC and prairie provinces, though. Most areas are 2-3 weeks earlier for normal snow free and Drought Code start up.

39. May 2010 Prediction (predicted values normalized against average weather) Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR > 2 for extreme fire weather conditions) Above-average conditions from Alberta through to western Quebec. High fire danger extends from BC through to southern Manitoba. Strong drying continues.

40. June 2010 Prediction (predicted values normalized against average weather) Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR > 2 for extreme fire weather conditions) High fire danger extends from Yukon to Ontario with exceptional conditions in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and western Quebec. June rains will be critical in slowing the fire season to a normal level

41. July 2010 Prediction (predicted values normalized against average weather) Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR > 2 for extreme fire weather conditions) Extreme conditions begin to wane as El Nino breaks down. Consensus suggests these reduced conditions may begin in June but the impact of a dry AMJ may have already set many areas for a challenging July.

42. August 2010 Prediction (predicted values normalized against average weather) Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR > 2 for extreme fire weather conditions) Fire conditions throughout much of Canada is reduced by August though BC may intensify. Confidence in these extended forecasts are low.

43. September 2010 Prediction (predicted values normalized against average weather) Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR > 2 for extreme fire weather conditions) With the exception of southern BC (and an anomaly in Quebec), fire season is over. Confidence in these extended forecasts are low.

44. May-Aug 2009 Prediction (predicted values normalized against average weather) Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR > 2 for extreme fire weather conditions) The 2010 fire season will likely see above-average spring conditions in the Prairies and above-average summer conditions in BC.

45. May-Aug 2009 May June July August Probability SSR> 2 (probability of extreme fire weather conditions)

46. Confidence(standard deviation normalized against average weather) May June July August

47. Confidence

48. Confidence Temperature Cumulative Precipitation BUI CSSR

49. The End Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/