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Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator

Climate Change Adaptation…. Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator. 18 Months ago…. No detailed picture of how climate might impact the region No robust emissions inventory nor understanding of policy implications Economic implications of climate change for the region unknown. ?.

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Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator

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  1. Climate ChangeAdaptation… Adrian Hilton Regional Climate Change Coordinator

  2. 18 Months ago…. • No detailed picture of how climate might impact the region • No robust emissions inventory nor understanding of policy implications • Economic implications of climate change for the region unknown ?

  3. The ‘Bottom Line’ - what we need to deliver • Enhanced resilience of our infrastructure, communities and business and natural environment to climate change • Reductions in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions of 80% - by 2050 • Opportunities for competitive advantage and economic diversification realised

  4. What is Climate Change Adaptation? • measures to moderate and cope with climate change impacts • not a one-off activity, but a continuous and incremental set of activities. Adaptation • Physical actions e.g: • raising the height of sea defences • Increasing ventilation / cooling in buildings • Building ‘Adaptive Capacity’ e.g: • Raising awareness of impacts • Tools / context etc for decision makers

  5. New critical threshold Vulnerability Critical threshold Climate variable New coping range Coping range Past Present Time Lag Decision to adapt Implementation of adaptation Planning time horizon Climate sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation Future Slide courtesy of UKCIP

  6. What can we expect in the North East? • Changing weather patterns • Warmer, wetter winters • Hotter, drier summers • Reduction in soil moisture in summer • Increase in ‘high intensity’ rainfall events • Polarisation of rainfall • Higher incidence and severity of storm events • Changes is biodiversity • Changing patterns of public usage – natural environment

  7. Resolution…

  8. Issues… • Does not consider: • Altitude • Topography • Proximity to coast etc • Gives: • Broad, generic data – • Warmer, wetter winters • Hotter, drier summers

  9. Climate Change Adaptation inthe North East…

  10. 3 Data Resolutions……. 3 Spatial Levels… Regional Sub-regional District

  11. Climate Change (2050s)… Environment Agency Regional Weather Impact Generator

  12. Impacts…

  13. Earwig modelling… • Does consider: • Altitude • Topography • Proximity to coast etc • Gives: (caveat) • High resolution • Considerably more detailed • Allows understanding of impacts at a level that enables ACTION

  14. Why choose the 2050s? • Climate change is already happening • Stopping GHGs today will not prevent it • CC over next 30-50 yrs due to historic emissions • Within long-term planning horizons

  15. UK CLIMATE PROJECTIONS 2009

  16. Summeraverage temperature Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security NE England central estimate Medium emissions The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and very unlikely to be more than 5.8ºC North East Study 2 – 2.3°C 17

  17. For rainfall we could see significant summer decreases Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Subsidence Decreased crop yields Serious water stress NE England central estimate Medium emissions For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -35% and very unlikely to be higher than +1% 18 North East Study mostly ~5% up to 10%

  18. For rainfall we see significant winter increases Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Risks of national Infrastructure NE England central estimate Medium Emissions For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +2% and very unlikely to be higher than +32% North East Study 8 to 20% 19

  19. Relative sea level rise(medium emissions, 50th percentile) North East Study 30cm 20

  20. North East Outputs… • Extreme temperatures • Cold 1.1 to 1.7 ºC(remains sub-zero) • Hot 2.6 to 3.1 ºC

  21. 3ºC doesn’t sound like much … … it represents a rise in temperature comparable with the global heating that occurred between the last Ice Age (15,000years ago) and the 18th Century this is projectedfor the 2050s

  22. Changes in our communities… 2003 2050

  23. We’re getting the data – we need to use it (wisely!)

  24. “We are already seeing in the North East the thinking, action and sense of purpose to deliver real progress on fighting climate change”. Joan Ruddock, Department of Energy and Climate Change Minister, 2009

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