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IMPACTs OF CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACTs OF CLIMATE CHANGE. Senstivity of growth in Scots pine (left) and Norway spruce (right) in different parts of the Baltic Sea basin compiled from the findings of SilviStrat project (Lindner et al. 2005). Rovaniemi - the northern boreal forest Kuopio - southern boreal forests

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IMPACTs OF CLIMATE CHANGE

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  1. IMPACTs OF CLIMATE CHANGE

  2. Senstivity of growth in Scots pine (left) and Norway spruce (right) in different parts of the Baltic Sea basin compiled from the findings of SilviStrat project (Lindner et al. 2005). Rovaniemi - the northern boreal forest Kuopio- southern boreal forests Chorin and Grillenburg temperate forests in northern Germany.

  3. Impact of climatechange on: • Health • Food production • Wateravailability • Energysector

  4. HEALTH McMichael i in., The Lancet, 2006, 367:859-869.

  5. Climatechangeislikely to affecthumanhealththrough: • Increasedrisk of heatwave-relatedhealthimpacts • Continuedcoldrelatedhealtheffects, in particularwhereaccess to energyisscarce • Increasedfloodrelatedimpacts • Increasedmalnutrition in areasalreadyaffected • Changes in food-borne diseasepatterns • Changes in distriution of infectiousdiseases • Increased in waterbornediseases, in particularwherewater, sanitation and hygienestandardsarelow • Increases in frequency of respiratory disease from atmosphericpollution and allergenic pollen

  6. McMichael i in., The Lancet, 2006, 367:859-869

  7. Winds, storms and floods: • Direct healtheffects: drownings, injuries, diarrhoealdiseases, vector-borne diseases (rodents), respiratory infections, skin and eyeinfections, mentalhealthproblems • Indirecthealtheffects: damage to infrastructure for healthcare and water and sanitation , crops and property, disruption of livelihood and housing

  8. Diarrhoeadiseases from food and waterborneinfections: • Poorwateravailability • Intenserainfallordrought as a stimulatingfactors of waterbornediseaseoutbreaks • Effects of temperature and run-off on microbial and chemicalcontamination of coastal, recreational and surfacewaters • Direct effect of temperature on the incidence of diarrhoealdiseases

  9. Vector-borne diseases • Effect of climatechange on the live of vectors: insects (mosquitos, ticks, sandflies) and rodents • Mosquito-borne diseases: malaria, dengue, West Nile Virus • Tick-borne diseases: encephalitis, borreliosis • Sandfly-borne diseases: leismaniasis

  10. Respiratory diseases: Air pollution Pollen allergies (new species, changes of vegetation period) Forest & Kim Starr

  11. Adaptation measures to reduceheat-relatedillnesses and deaths • Action plans: • Accurate, timelyweatherrelatedheatalerts • Strategies to reduceindividual and communityexposure to heat • Plans for provision of healthcare, social services and infrastructure • Heat-relatedhealthinformationstrategies • Real-timesurveillance, evaluation and monitoring • Health services: • Healthfacilityinfrastructure: shading, cooling, drinkingwater, adaptedmenus • Appropriatestaffschedullingandworkingarrangements • Special care for pacients and residents: identification of rosk, adjustment of drugs and treatment, organization of homecare • Staff training in identification and treatment of heat-relatedhealthproblems

  12. McMichael i in., The Lancet, 2006, 367:859-869

  13. Impact of climate on food production

  14. Increase of atmosphericCO2concentration: • Direct effect: • Increase of yield of plantshaving the so-calledC3-photosynthesispathway (20-40%) • Smallerincrease of yield of plantshaving the so-calledC4-photosynthesispathway (maize, sorgum, sugar-cane, milleth) • Reducedtranspiration (with higherCO2concentration, the amount of opennes of stomata – pores on the leafallowing for gas exchange – isreduced for bothC3 and C4plants. • Change in a quality of biomass – moresugar • Indirecteffect: • Change in the attraction of plants for pests • Benefit for weeds

  15. Increase of temperature: • Direct effect: • Longervegetation period (effectstronger in cooler regions) • Faster plant development (in wheat, anincrease of 1°Cduringgrainfillingreduces the length of thisphase by 5% decliningyield in the same amount) • Indirecteffect: • Benefit for pests • Benefit for weeds

  16. Whatdeterminescropproduction in Europe? • Duration of growingseason • Late spring and earlyautumnfrosts • Solar radiationavailability • Wateravailability • Heatstress • Duration of grain-filling period

  17. Arablecrops: • Expansion of the area of cerealcultivationnorthwards • For wheat the small reduction of yieldcaused by temperaturerisecan be morethancounterbalanced by the effect of increasedCO2 on cropphotosynthesis. Lower yield in dry regions. Increase of yieldvariability . • Potatoes (and otherroot and tubercrops) mayhave notable resopone to a risingCO2concentration. However for somecropswarmingmayreducegrowingseason and icrease of waterrequirementsmay be crusial for yields. • Climaterelatedincreasesareonlyexpected in northern Europe • LargestreductionsareexpectedaroundMediterranean and in the south of European Russia • Differentimpacts of spring-sowncrops and autumnsowncrops

  18. Perennialcrops: • Many fruittreesaresusceptible to spring frostsduringflowering • Decrease of risk of damage to fruittrees by autumnfrosts. • The climatesuitability for many of bioenergycropsisprojected to increase in Europe. • Grasslands: • The responsewilldiffer • Generallypositiveresponse from intensivelymanaged and nutrientrichgrasslans (ifwaterisavailable) • Increasingfrequency of summerdroughtsmay be crussial

  19. Livestock - greater water consumption, heat stress, insects • Weeds, pests and diseases • Invasive species • Soils - faster decomposition where soil moisture allows, reduction in soil organic matter stock

  20. Water security • Changes in precipitation • Changes in evaporation • Changes in transpiration • Changes in river run-off • Changes in water quality • Changes in snow cover

  21. Run-off changes • Total amount • Annual cycle • Snow and glaciers melting in spring

  22. Floods and droughts frequency

  23. Protectingagainstfloods • Technical floodprotection: dikes, dams,… • Natural retention of floodwater: floodways • Restriction of settlement in riskareas • Standards for building development • Forecasting • Insurance

  24. Coping with drought and lowflowperiods • Technical droughtprotection: reservoirs, tanks,… • Efficiency of wateruse • Restriction of wateruse • Landscapeplanningmeasures to improvewaterbalance • Forecasting • Insurance

  25. Irrigation water demand

  26. Changing potential of hydroelectricity Thermal power plant

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