The Tools

1. Pan GEWEX MeetingSeattle, Washington, August 2010Kevin TrenberthChair SSGSSG in New Delhi Jan 2010

2. Domains The Tools GEWEX achieves its goals through data set development and analysis, process studies and model improvement

3. GRP • Radiative processes and understanding • Global Data sets on radiative and turbulent fluxes • Global In-situ observational networks, development and standardization (BSRN, Soil Moisture) • Development and improvement of radiative transfer codes • Intercomparison studies and assessment • http://www.gewex.org/projects-GRP.htm • CEOP • Globally distributed extensive regional data sets covering water and energy cycle observations (in situ and space borne and modeling data) • Data management system / GEO Prototype for Water Cycle Observations • Regional Climate Modeling and Process Descriptions (Monsoons, Extremes, etc) • Hydrological Applications and Forecasting (Drought monitoring, Hydrological Ensemble Predictions…) • Coupling with Global Modeling and Global Data sets (GRP and GMPP) • http://www.gewex.org/projects-CEOP.htm • GMPP • Model Parameterization and development from land surface process to atmospheric processes • Cloud process descriptions, parameterizations and model, data sets and tools, intercomparison studies • Atmospheric Boundary layer studies, descriptions and intercomparison studies (diurnal cycle) • Strong cooperation with Numerical Prediction Centers and weather forecasting “through” WGNE • Land surface feed back/coupling studies • http://www.gewex.org/projects-GMPP.htm

5. GEWEX GEWEX Radiation Panel Radiation Panel Atmospheric Processes Modeling Panels: GCSS GABLS Land Surface Processes: CEOP GLASS

6. How do GEWEX activities fit into a new WCRP structure? Main proposals from JSC-31 • Core projects retained but with revised responsibilities to facilitate climate • system research at the interface of the physical Earth system components: • Ocean-atmosphere (think CLIVAR) • Land-atmosphere (think GEWEX) • Cryosphere (think CliC) • Stratosphere-troposphere (think SPARC) • Within each core project there is a common set of basic “themes”: • Observations and analysis • Model development, evaluation and experiments • Processes and understanding • Applications and services • Capacity building

7. Pan-WCRP groups • Each core project would have a panel for each theme, and coordination • across core projects would occur through pan-WCRP coordinating group • for each theme. Members: Project chairs + JSC members • Further discussion led to the following recommendations: • Formation of a WCRP Modeling Council – to coordinate among • WCRP modeling groups, leaving intact WGCM, WGSIP, GMPP and WGNE for now • Formation of a WCRP Observations Council – to manage WCRP- • related data and observation issues, leaving intact WOAP (??) • In addition, WCRP might select one or more “grand challenges” to focus • efforts to ~5 years or so: further discussion at JSC-32, given issues like: • How would they be determined and prioritized? How many would there be? Would projects lead? Would existing crosscuts remain? etc.

8. Some Key Issues for GEWEX • How much of the science of GEWEX falls under “land-atmosphere”? • What about the activities that do not? • More generally, how should we organize activities spanning Earth system • domains and other integrating themes? • monsoons • extremes … • Maybe the proposed structure will lead to fewer standing panels • and this would allow GEWEX more flexibility to address “grand • challenges” and emerging issues? • Will IPOs based around “land-atmosphere” be attractive to funders? • What would be its remit? (Same for all other core groups).

9. Climate Service Elements What is your panel’s/working-group’s contribution to the Climate Service Elements? The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and associated activities; and provision of free and unrestricted exchange and access to climate data; The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned by adequate computing resources and increased interaction with other global climate relevant research initiatives. Climate services information systems taking advantage of enhanced existing national and international climate service arrangements in the delivery of products, including sector-oriented information to support adaptation activities; Climate user interface mechanisms focused on building linkages and integrating information, at all levels, between the providers and users of climate services.

10. GEWEX : post 2013 • Global and Regional Energy and Water project (GREW) • [GEWEX grew] • Possible new name mooted

11. GEWEX: post 2013 Mission statement • To develop improved observational, diagnostic and modeling capabilities focusing on land-atmosphere interactions to measure and predict global and regional energy and water variations, trends, and extremes such as heat waves, floods and droughts; and provide the science underpinning climate services.

12. GEWEX Imperatives Approach • Imperatives were defined at SSG in Jan 2010 • Must be fleshed out in pan-GEWEX mtg in Aug 2010 • We must prepare draft doc of science needs & implementation • Each imperative has to have a key group taking the lead, but with the interactions and links with other parts of GEWEX and WCRP made clear, and ways to facilitate those (including a person/project office support) • How should the panels and structure evolve: for the components of GEWEX and the sub-panels?

13. Imperatives: Headlines DATA • Develop climate data recordsof atmospheric and land variables, complete with metadata and error bars. • Provide descriptions and analyses of observed variations, trends and extremes in hydrological and energy-related quantities. ANALYSIS • Develop advanced diagnostic tools and identify pathways for model improvement. • Increase understanding of energy and water cycle processes, quantify their contribution to climate feedbacks, and develop improved hydro-meteorological parameterizations.

14. Imperatives • Develop and exploit methods of dealing with non-stationarity of hydrological variables, and especially extremesof floods and droughts, associated with climate and global change. • Contribute to building a comprehensive end-to-end pan-WCRP initiative on climate extremes addressing the compound and nonlinear nature of extreme events, their ubiquity and risk coping issues. MODELING • Attribute causes of trends, and determine the predictabilityof energy and water cycles on a global and regional basis in collaboration with the wider WCRP community.

15. Imperatives • Accelerate developmentsinmodelsof the land, atmosphere and entire climate system. • Improve capabilities for predictions of water and energy cycle variability on all time scales. APPLICATIONS • Develop observational sites, data processing tools, data management and archival systems, model initialization and synthesis capabilities, and other research outcomes for transition to operations. • Promote and foster capacity building throughtraining of scientists and the user community.

16. Imperatives implementation • Each Imperative has with it a list of the lead group, partners and actions • This needs to be developed (draft exists) • Buy in needed by Panels and WGs • Plan for how to get there at Pan-GEWEX mtg

17. Frontiers • Understanding and modeling: • anthropogenic influences on land and water use, including urbanization • effects of climate variability and change on land surface properties and processes • anthropogenic aerosols • Improved representation of hydrological processes in land surface schemes, including groundwater • Assimilation of local and regional data to constrain global model parameterizations • Extremes in water cycle effects on, for example, ecosystems, land forms, food systems, human health, ... • Linkages with biogeochemical processes, including modeling of water quality and other non physical variables • Geo-engineering

18. GEWEX : post 2013 What is Global and Regional Energy and Water project (GREW)? • What should be covered and how? • If the new project is the “land/atmosphere” project, what does that entail? • Given the imperatives: the things we must do, how do we evolve GEWEX and its panels and working groups to ensure that these topics are addressed? • We must build on what we have done, wrap up some things, and go beyond. • What enabling infrastructure is necessary and how do we get it? • What, if any, modeling should be included? • What about atmospheric processes? • How do we deal with the cross cutting themes?

19. Panel actions • Flesh out the imperatives • What are the 3-5 priority areas (imperatives) for 2013 and beyond, within the scope of the panel? • What can the panel contribute, a) over the next 3 years, and b) beyond 2013 to the other panels? • What would they most like to be able to obtain from a sister panel? • Examine what could be achieved in an RHP by cross-panel collaboration and integrated analysis and modeling a) with existing data, b) with an expanded monitoring program. • A statement from each RHP: of what have been the key science deliverables from the project, what was learned about integrated monitoring that is transferable, what are the strategic goals, what is the required timescale for monitoring to achieve this.

20. WCRP Extremes • Goals • To summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of climate extremes and develop a common language amongst researchers and end users. • To design an intercomparison framework through which both observations, model representations of extremes & projections of climate can be assessed & by which changes in climate extremes can be better evaluated. • To accelerate progress on the prediction of climate extremes with a focus on developing capabilities and products which facilitate practical applications for stakeholders (end users/constituents) & regions around the world. • To assess and improve the observational and dataset framework for study of global extremes • To determine how extremes are changing and varying and why • (including their relationship to mean variables, physical factors, shape of pdf etc). • Extreme events meeting in Paris at UNESCO: 27-29 September 2010

21. WCRP extremes • WCRP-UNESCO (GEWEX/CLIVAR/IHP) Workshop on metrics and methodologies of estimation of extreme climate events • UNESCO, Paris: 27-30 Sept 2010 • Chair: Olga Zolina • About 150 registered • 3 Breakout Groups • Community white paper and BAMS(?) article Pan GEWEX mtg

22. Some questions: • 1) What is your view about how natural variability and global climate change intersect in producing extremes? • 2) What is the relationship among different extremes? This includes how droughts relate to heat waves, snow melt and early runoff relate to temperatures, or more generally how temperatures relate to precipitation and flooding. • 3) How do we translate or communicate the changing risks to the general public? • 4) Is there commonality between tropical and extratropical cyclone risk factors and changes? • 5) What changes in extremes are "global" vs what are regional? Or: "Are changes in South American extremes related to those in Europe"? • 6) How do perceptions of extremes depend on time-scale? Or "Is an hourly extreme related to a daily or weekly extreme?" etc. • 7) What is considered extreme? How much is it dependent on impact sector, geography, season, etc.? • 8) What risks are posted by compound extremes (e.g., heavy rains immediately after a drought)? Pan GEWEX mtg

23. BOGs • Data requirements and availability, including data policy (Chair: Olga Zolina, reporter: Rick Lawford) • Representation of extreme events in climate and operational models, including consideration of scaling and spatial scales of extremes (Chair: William Gutowsky, reporter: Jozef Syktus) • Methodologies for estimation of extremes across areas and disciplines (Chair: Ronald Stewart, reporter: David Stephenson) Pan GEWEX mtg

24. WCRP Extremes Status and Actions Initial Focus: Drought (then maybe Heavy Precipitation…) DIG – Drought Interest Group: David Legler, Siegfried Schubert, Robert Mechoso, Ronald Stewart, Peter van Oevelen, With assistance from WCRP Office .. Issue: Important Status: Lots of activities but … Plans: Step-by-step forward Inventory of drought-related activities scientists International assessment of drought capabilities: monitoring prediction  Analysis of existing model studies As well as: Clarify definitions, trend studies, internal structure International drought workshop (2010-11)

25. GEWEX and Modeling Proposal from the last JSC meeting for a “Modelling Council”. : “… the Modelling Council concept would allow the Projects to be better connected to the WCRP modelling efforts. “

26. GEWEX and Modeling? From JSC 2010

27. GEWEX and Modeling • I take it as a given that we are moving more and more toward “seamless prediction”. • Hence improving cloud, convection, surface fluxes, boundary layers, and diabatic processes are not only important for climate but also for weather. • - or is it the other way round? • We know that errors in precipitation in the first few hours of a forecast mean there are errors in diabatic heating that affect forecasts on a few day timeframe and beyond. • How widely accepted is this? • How can the efforts become less fragmented?

28. GEWEX and Modeling • Should GEWEX modelling be more closely linked to the observations and field programs, and how? Consider especially all aspects of land surface modelling and monsoons. • How should GCSS revamp its groups to foster those where activity is happening and progress is being made while eliminating groups where interest lags? • Is GMPP needed? How should GEWEX modelling (currently GMPP) interact with other parts of WCRP? Is one person sufficient or should both of the chairs of new GCSS and GLASS play the role of the head of GMPP and interact with WGNE and represent the other group? • How should atmospheric processes important for climate be dealt with in the new WCRP? A proposal is for this to continue to be in the new GEWEX. If so, the case needs to be made. • The land-atmosphere modelling is currently in GLASS. How should this interact with the atmospheric oriented group? How can GLASS become more closely linked to CEOP?

29. GEWEX and Modeling • Should GABLS become linked to GCSS as the essence of the atmospheric processes? • Should we lobby for the representation of both GLASS and GCSS on the WCRP modelling council, thereby doing away with the need for a single GEWEX modeling focus? • How can we increase the importance of GEWEX modelling activities with the sponsors? Should we promote fields programs, focused workshops, intercomparisons, numerical experiments? • What role should GEWEX be playing in making progress on these problems as an international umbrella organization? • How does GCSS benefit from being in GEWEX, what role should GEWEX play in steering GCSS activities and vice versa; is there a critical need for stronger coordination of GCSS activities with the rest of GEWEX's multifaceted portfolio? Should the modelling be elsewhere (e.g. WGNE)?

30. GEWEX and Modeling: issues • Previously, GEWEX modelling has been closely linked to NWP centers rather than climate modelling centers. As seamless prediction develops, the differences may be reduced, but why is this the case? WGNE and THORPEX serve weather purposes. WGCM now has Sandrine Bony as a co-chair, and cloud-climate modeling is a key concern. What does this mean for GEWEX modelling? • How do we interact with other parts of WCRP where there is strong overlap (such as VACS, and the MJO task group in AAMP)? • YOTC has been active and involved with clouds and convection: topics very much of interest to GCSS. How are they related and how should this develop? • The group of regional modelers is looking for a home; cf CORDEX. A WG on regional modeling is being considered. How does this relate to the RHPs and GLASS? • Process modeling may relate better to regional modeling? • RCMs needed by RHPs • CORDEX experience should be useful for RHPs

31. The following 2 slides are from the CLIVAR SSG mtg as an attempt to look at activities that cross cut (with weights assigned based on the core activities, not impacts) • One way forward is for a core project to take leads on crosscuts/ grand challenges, provided they recognize the need for input from others. • What is the GEWEX feedback to JSC?

32. WCRP and core projects synergy: Atmosph. chemistry & climate Seasonal prediction Climate extremes Centennial projection Paleo Sea level rise Decadal prediction Monsoons Aerosols We need a similar thing for GEWEX except the columns should reflect our imperatives Weight, % 10 20 30 40 50 60

33. Table 1. What is your panel’s/working-group’s workload with regards to the CLIVAR imperatives in % We need a similar thing for GEWEX except the rows should reflect our imperatives, and columns our groups Table 2. What is your panel’s/working-group’s contribution to the Climate Service Elements in %

34. Imperatives: 1 DATA • Develop climate data recordsof atmospheric and land variables, complete with metadata and error bars. Lead: GRP, CEOP; Partners: SCOPE-CM, CEOS, WOAP Actions: • Reprocess GEWEX datasets, provide advice on other efforts and lead evaluations. • Continue evaluation and refinement of sensor algorithms, influencing next generation space-born platforms and reprocessing. • Development of appropriate calibration/validation/evaluation datasets to confront models. • Devise robust ways of dealing with the more diverse, complex, higher spatial and temporal resolution, and much greater volumes of data. • Build on CEOP experience in data management, archival and access.

35. Imperatives: 2 DATA • Provide descriptions and analyses of observed variations, trends and extremes in hydrological and energy-related quantities. Partners: Rest of WCRP Actions: • Analyze, evaluate and compare observations, and document results. • Work to close moisture and energy budgets, regionally and globally. • Determine the geographical and seasonal characteristics of key water and energy cycle variables especially over land areas. • Close catchment water budgets. • Integrated product assessment, data assimilation into hydrological models.

36. Imperatives: 3 ANALYSIS • Develop advanced diagnostic tools and identify pathways for model improvement. Lead:GRP, GMPP, CEOP; Partners: WGNE, CAS Actions: • Spin up a new joint GRP-GMPP-CEOP effort in advanced diagnostics; • Build on GEWEX’s combination of observations and modeling capabilities • Identify and entrain collaborators from other WCRP and CAS groups

37. Imperatives: 4 ANALYSIS • Increase understanding of energy and water cycle processes, quantify their contribution to climate feedbacks, and develop improved hydro-meteorological parameterizations. Lead: GMPP, CEOP Partners: CLIVAR, CliC, SPARC, WGCM, WGNE Actions: • Observations, process studies, field programs • Investigate alternative representations of sub-grid processes in Land Surface Schemes; • Develop improved understanding of climate variability and change on land surface properties, including soils, vegetation and hydrological processes, and an associated modelling capability; • Investigate the scope for development of next generation land surface models with improved representation of subsurface hydrology, including groundwater processes; identify suitable areas for their evaluation. • Develop more modular Land Surface Models and components for use in Earth system models.

38. Imperatives: 5 ANALYSIS • Develop and exploit methods of dealing with non-stationarity of hydrological variables, and especially extremesof floods and droughts, associated with climate and global change. Partners: CLIVAR; IHDP (Global Water System Project, GWSP), • UNESCO (International Hydrological Programme, IHP) • Hydrological community Actions: • Define requirements for data types, sampling and resolution. • Develop new statistical methods for planning for extremes. • Develop new generation methodologies for quantification and prediction of extremes.

39. Imperatives: 6 ANALYSIS • Contribute to building a comprehensive end-to-end pan-WCRP initiative on climate extremes addressing the compound and nonlinear nature of extreme events, their ubiquity and risk coping issues. Partners: WCRP (CLIVAR, CliC), Hydrological community, IRDR (Integrated Research on Disaster Risk) Actions: • Define requirements for data types, sampling and resolution. • Model development, focused on extremes, and definitions consistent with observations (upscaling and downscaling). • Characterize the entire pdf and especially the characteristics of precipitation (frequency, intensity, amount, type, duration). • Assist in reducing vulnerability and planning for adaptation to and coping with changes.

40. Imperatives: 7 MODELING • Attribute causes of trends, and determine the predictabilityof energy and water cycles on a global and regional basis in collaboration with the wider WCRP community. Partners: WCRP projects and WGs; IPCC Actions: • Develop links between global, regional and local scales. • Model detection and attribution studies. • Coordinate data set generation, process studies and modeling.

41. Imperatives: 8 MODELING • Accelerate developmentsinmodelsof the land, atmosphere and entire climate system. Lead GMPP, CEOP; Partners: WGNE, WGCM Actions: • Strengthen the model improvement activities within GMPP. • Strengthen collaboration with the modeling centers. • Consider how the components interact and make up a complete system through improved understanding of coupling and feedbacks. • Continue evaluation of developing earth system model products. • Develop archives to support model development and intercomparison. • Develop forecasting algorithms including ensemble techniques. • Promote regional application and evaluation studies; • Improve representation of hydrological processes – lakes, wetlands, groundwater, river routing. • Improve the representation of the atmospheric energy and water cycle, in particular clouds and precipitation. • Improve representation of non-stationarity in land surface properties under global change.

42. Imperatives: 9 MODELING • Improve capabilities for predictions of water and energy cycle variability on all time scales. Partners: CLIVAR, CLiC, WGSIP, WGCM; UNESCO (International Hydrological Programme, IHP); International Association of Hydrogeologists (IAH) Actions: • Diagnose model errors and exploit GEWEX datasets and focused process studies

43. Imperatives: 10 APPLICATIONS • Develop observational sites, data processing tools, data management and archival systems, model initialization and synthesis capabilities, and other research outcomes for transition to operations. Partners:pan-WCRP, IGBP, hydro-meteorological and climate services Actions: • CEOP reference sites heritage; • Undertake joint activities with operational hydro-meteorological and climate services, and hydrological research programs to demonstrate the value of the capabilities, data sets, technology, tools, and information products that address societal needs. • Promote collaboration among climate system science, engineering hydrology and socio-economic sciences. • Demonstrate a prototype of an end-to-end fully collaborative study. • Work with operational agencies to transition new capabilities

44. Imperatives: 11 APPLICATIONS • Promote and foster capacity building throughtraining of scientists and the user community. Partners:ESSP, START Actions: • Publish results and lessons learned • Collaborate on observations • Participate in outreach and workshops • Provide tools for diagnoses and analysis

45. Frontiers • Understanding and modeling: • anthropogenic influences on land and water use, including urbanization • effects of climate variability and change on land surface properties and processes • anthropogenic aerosols • Improved representation of hydrological processes in land surface schemes, including groundwater • Assimilation of local and regional data to constrain global model parameterizations • Extremes in water cycle effects on, for example, ecosystems, land forms, food systems, human health, ... • Linkages with biogeochemical processes, including modeling of water quality and other non physical variables • Geo-engineering

46. GEWEX Radiation Panel: quantities of interest Trenberth et al 2008 Trenberth et al 2009 BAMS

47. Trenberth et al. 2007 J Hydromet

48. GEWEX GEWEX Radiation Panel Radiation Panel Atmospheric Processes Modeling Panels: GCSS GABLS Land Surface Processes: CEOP GLASS

50. Pan-WCRP & WMO Monsoon cross-cut studies