Developing an Integrated Ecosystem Research Program for the Gulf of Maine

1. Developing an Integrated Ecosystem Research Program for the Gulf of Maine Kirk Rogers Andrew J. Allyn, Aly McKnight, Linda Welch, Iain J. Stenhouse gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

2. The catalyst Jordan Chalfant gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

3. The Research Program Mission To understand the complex inter-relationships among living communities within the Gulf of Maine ecosystem and the physical marine environment, as well as how these relationships may respond to climate change and other large-scale disturbances. Defining Program Characteristics • Investigations across key temporal, spatial and trophic scales • Hypothesis-driven projects 3. Individual projects vertically linked into a cohesive research program gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

4. Responding to potential ecosystem-scale perturbations Offshore wind potential Mass GIS/TrueWind Solutions LLC gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

5. Why an integrated ecosystem research program? • Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment • Action plan 2007-2012 Goal 1 Outcome 1.3- Habitat Conservation • Exchange of information on observed and predicted effects of climate change, among decision-makers about ecosystem-based approaches to managing coastal and ocean habitats” • “Stewardship of the Ocean, Our Coasts, and the Great Lakes” • Protect, maintain and restore ecosystems through “integrated, comprehensive, ecosystem-based, flexible and proactive approaches” • NOAA Next-Generation Strategic Plan • Long-term goal to maintain fisheries, habitats and biodiversity within “healthy and productive ecosystems” • Habitat restoration and conservation plan • “Conduct science, planning, and communication required for Regional Ocean Management, Marine Spatial Planning, and Ecosystem-Based Management” gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

6. An “adaptive management” framework for project design, implementation and execution M. Sigler and R. Harvey 2010 Humans gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program Marine Mammals Seabirds Fish Forage Species Benthos NPZ Climate Scenarios Moorings Atmosphere + Ocean

7. Our Progress 2011 April Hypothesis Development Workshop • Seven themes • Remote versus Local Drivers – Climate change, currents, nutrients • Ocean Acidification – pH conditions, carbonate chemistry • Bottom-up Controls – Timing, duration and intensity of phyto blooms • Benthic Drivers – Predator-prey interactions, food, habitat • Spatial Constraints – Local physical processes, prey, predators • Fisheries Management – Management decisions, ecosystem responses • Socioeconomics – Ecosystem functions, values, and coastal infrastructure gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

8. Spatial constraints theme hypotheses • Weather, bottom topography, and ocean conditions influencing circulation patterns on multiple scales affect the distribution, frequency, density and persistence of prey, and thus the distributions and foraging success of predators. Favorable feeding environments are associated with physical processes (e.g., internal waves, eddies, fronts) that aggregate prey. The processes that dominate the physics at small scales tend to be recurrent or stable in the Gulf of Maine; potential feeding areas associated with these features turn on and off depending on the abundance and supply of prey. Central-place foragers, such as marine birds nesting on an island, will change their diet or foraging location to improve fitness. Variability in food abundance, condition and accessibility (e.g. depth) determines seabird breeding success and colony suitability; persistent changes can lead to local extirpation (or colony abandonment). gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

9. Central place foragers: Gulf of Maine seabirds USFWS USFWS USFWS gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

10. Quality prey and seabird productivity Petit Manan Island Arctic Tern bill load observations (Percent of total observations reported) Jordan Chalfant Petit Manan Arctic Tern productivity (Mean chicks fledged per nest) gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

11. The Atlantic Herring • Schooling, coastal pelagic species • Juveniles aggregate in large schools in the spring in coastal waters, generally move offshore during the summer and fall • Adults return to nearshore waters to spawn • ~ 18% of the biomass occurs in inshore waters • * (currently being revisited) Gulf of Maine Research institute gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

12. The Gulf of Maine Coastal Zone Gulf of Maine coastal waters (~ 2m to 100m) Gulf of Maine coastal waters (~ 2m to 100m) Managed seabird colony Managed seabird colony Dann Blackwood Dieter Craasmann Kirk Rogers Kirk Rogers USFWS Jason Stockwell Basin scale circulation patterns: Labrador Current, Gulf Stream Current Local drivers: Weather, eddies, tides, currents Karl Embleton gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

13. Relationships to existing projects A. Pershing et al. 2009. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 378: 227-243 http://na.nefsc.noaa.gov/ecosystem.html H. Xue et al. 2008. Ecol Model 210 (1-2): 193-211 http://nefsc.noaa.gov/esb/rsr/sbts/sbts_2010/large_file.pdf Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/HydroAtlas

14. Biological conservation: Managing human use patterns Changes in fisheries management influence the structure and function of the ecosystem by altering the distribution and/or abundance of fish stocks. Kirk Rogers Changes in physical and biological conditions and resource management decisions will interact to affect coastal communities by altering ecosystem functions, ecosystem service values, and coastal infrastructure. Kirk Rogers Kirk Rogers gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

15. Future Plans January 23rd and 24th Collaborators Meeting (Portland, ME) to review hypotheses and draft implementation plan Kirk Rogers gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

16. Returning to the beginning Mission To understand the complex inter-relationships among living communities within the Gulf of Maine ecosystem and the physical marine environment, as well as how these relationships may respond to climate change and other large-scale disturbances. Kirk Rogers gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program

17. Thank you! Jordan Chalfant Andrew Allyn, andrew.allyn@gmail.com, (207) 671-8483 The Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program www.gomierp.org gomierp.org Gulf of Maine Integrated Ecosystem Research Program