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Trends in Population and Demographic Change. Andrew J. Padovani Research Associate, Business Forecasting Center. The 2010 Decennial Census. 685,306 San Joaquin County residents in 2010. 2010 Demographics. 2010 Demographics. Migration. Migration. Model Description. Cohort Component Model

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Trends in population and demographic change

Trends in Population and Demographic Change

Andrew J. Padovani

Research Associate, Business Forecasting Center


The 2010 decennial census
The 2010 Decennial Census

  • 685,306 San Joaquin County residents in 2010.






Model description
Model Description

  • Cohort Component Model

  • Cohorts are 5-year Age Groups

  • Model runs in 5-year Increments out to 2040

  • In- and Out-Migration Modeled Separately


Data sources
Data Sources

  • Base Population Data:

    2010 Decennial Census, Census Bureau

  • Births and Deaths:

    Public Health Services of San Joaquin County

  • Migration Data:

    IRS Migration Profiles, Missouri Census Data Center, University of Missouri-Columbia


Assumptions
Assumptions

  • Migration rates return to “historic norm” between 2010 and 2015.

  • Lower long-term Hispanic migration.

  • Declining fertility, including Hispanic & Asian.

  • Death rates decline over projection period



Baseline population p rojection
Baseline Population ScenariosProjection




Long run outlook
Long Run Outlook Scenarios

  • Relatively young population should support strong natural increase.

  • Agriculture and proximity to Bay Area should keep SJC attractive to commuters.

  • Shrinking Working Age population will reduce future fertility rates and reduce tax base.

  • Aging population will strain social insurance programs and increase health care spending.


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