Mauritius Population and Demographic Profile

1. Mauritius Population and Demographic Profile Mr D Pothegadoo Statistician 1 28.11.2016

2. Structure of presentation Give a snapshot of the current demographic situation in Mauritius Population dynamics Demographic trends(factors of population change ) International Comparison Future prospects 2

3. Current Demographic Situation 3

4. Estimated population of the Republic of Mauritius1 as at 1st July 2016 4

5. 5

6. Definitions • Crude Birth Rate: the no of births in a year per 1,000 midyear population. • Crude Death Rate: the no of deaths in a year per 1,000 midyear population. • Infant Mortality Rate: the no of infant deaths in a year per 1,000 live births during the year. • Total Fertility Rate: the average number of children born to a woman assuming that she survives to the end of child-bearing age. 6

7. Population Dynamics 7

8. Evolution of Population growth rates 8

9. Population Dynamics Populations grow or decline through the interplay of 3 demographic processes: • birth(fertility) • death(mortality) • migration 9

10. Demographic Transition(Evolution of CBR and CDR) • Shift from high to low birth and death rates • Initial big gap between birth and death rates lead to high population growth (baby boom years) 10

11. The Family • The family is the structural unit within which births usually occur. • Thus any changes in the rate of family formation and dissolution play an important role, though indirect, in population growth. • Therefore an analysis of marriage and divorce is essential together with the analysis of fertility 11

12. Marital Status Distribution of resident population aged 15 years and over by marital status, Republic of Mauritius 12

13. Married/In a union • Among all persons aged 15 years and above in 2011, around 60% were married or living with a partner, almost the same proportion as in 2000 13

14. Marital breakdown is on the rise • Compared to 2000, separated and divorced persons were on the increase both in absolute numbers and in proportion. • In 2000, they were 25,800 in number and made up 4% of all ever-married persons. • In 2011, they made up 39,000 or 6% of all ever-married persons. 14

15. More unmarried parents • Unmarried parents, made up mostly of unmarried mothers, were on the increase from 2,100 in 2000 to 3,700 in 2011 15

16. Number of households • The number of households increases but their average size decreases. • There were 352,500 households in 2011 compared to 296,800 in 2000 (an increase of around 19%). • The average household size however decreased from 3.9 to 3.5. 16

17. Living Arrangements • The typical household comprising a couple with unmarried children which made up nearly two thirds of all private households in 2000 is becoming less common and made up only 54% of all households in 2011. 17

18. Living Arrangements • By contrast, there has been an increase in the following household types: • Lone parents households with unmarried children – from 30,800 (10.4%) to 47,900 (13.6%); • Persons living alone (single member households) – from 21,500 (6.2%) to 35,600 (10.1%); and • Couples without children – from 27,000 (9.1%) to 46,200 (13.1%) 18

19. Demographic Trends(factors of population change) 19

20. Fertility • Crude birth rate (CBR): the number of live births registered in a year per thousand mid-year population • Total Fertility Rate : the average total number of children a woman will have assuming she survives to the end of her child-bearing age and is subjected to a fixed schedule of age-specific fertility rates. TFR is one of the most useful indicators of fertility because it gives the best picture of how many children women are currently having. 20

21. Evolution of Total Fertility Rate 21

22. Evolution of Total Fertility Rate • In 1963 women were having on average 6.3 children during their reproductive lifespan. • TFR then followed a decreasing trend attaining 1.4 in 2015. • Replacement level fertility of 2.1 was first attained in 1984. (Replacement-level fertility is the level of childbearing at which women have an average of two children—just replacing themselves in the population(2.1). • If a country maintains below replacement fertility for a long time, its population is bound to take a decreasing trend. 22

23. Factors contributing to fertility decline • Later age at marriage as a result of longer education • Employment opportunities for women • Cost of childbearing • Changing role of women • Improved contraception with more accessibility and acceptance of its use 23

24. Teenage fertility • Teenage fertility is on the decline but remains high compared to developed countries. • In 2011, the teenage fertility rate for the Republic of Mauritius was around 32 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19 compared to 39 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19 in 2000. • The rate is higher than those for some developed countries such as Germany, Sweden, France and lower than those for African countries such as South Africa and Kenya. 24

25. Teenage fertility rates for selected countries 25

26. Fertility rates among women of different backgrounds • Women with higher educational attainment have fewer children. • In 2011, women with tertiary education had on average 0.8 child compared to 1.2 children for women with secondary education and 1.5 children for women with primary education. 26

27. Fertility rates among women of different backgrounds • Economically active women showed lower fertility than their non-active counterparts. • In the Republic of Mauritius, housewives had the highest parity (1.63) followed by unemployed women (1.34) and employed women (1.15). 27

28. Childlessness • Childlessness is the proportion of women who have reached the end of their child-bearing years and have not had any children. • This can be derived for women aged 50 years and over from the census question which asks each women the number of live babies she has ever had. 28

29. Childlessness • The proportion of women aged 50 – 54 who have never had a baby represents the group who has most recently completed their reproductive life, childless. • This proportion is used as an indicator of the level of childlessness in the population. • In 2011, around 5% of women aged 50-54 years were childless in the Republic of Mauritius. 29

30. Childlessness • From 2000 to 2011, the proportion of childless women increased from 4.2% to 5.1% in the Island of Mauritius. • The rise was lower in the Island of Rodrigues, from 2.2% in 2000 to 2.6% in 2011. • Women with higher educational attainment are more prone to childlessness. • Childlessness is more prevalent among employed women than housewives. 30

31. International comparison of childlessness % of childless women aged 40-44 years in selected countries Source: United Nations, World Fertility Report 2012 31

32. Marriage Rate/Divorce Rate 32

33. Marriage and Divorce • While marriage rate is declining, divorce rate is on the rise. • The trend is towards later marriage. • Women with higher educational attainment tend to marry later. • 2,161 divorces were granted by Court in 2015. • About one third of the couples who divorced in 2015 did not have children while slightly more than fifty percent of them had 1 to 2 children. 33

34. Life expectancy • At birth: The average number of years that a new born baby would be expected to live if current mortality rates continue to apply • At age 60: The average number of additional years that a person aged 60 years would be expected to live if current mortality rates continue to apply 34

35. Life expectancy at birth more than doubled between 1944 and 2014 • The low life expectancy at birth in the past can to some extent be explained by the high infant mortality prevailing at that time • Gap between men and women: 1 year in 1944, around 8 yrs in 1990, 6.7yrs in 2014; gap has slightly decreased in the recent past. 35

36. At age 60 also women are expected to live longer than men. Currently another 22 years for women against 18 years for men • Gap between male and female: 2.5 years in 1944, 4.3 years in 1990 and 3.8 years in 2014 36

37. Some of the reasons for improved life expectancy over the years • Improved supply of safe water • Better hygiene and sanitation • Immunization against major infectious diseases • The adoption of scientific and medical advances. • More health care provisions. • Safer and healthier working conditions 37

38. International Comparison 38

39. Selected Indicators 39

40. Future prospects 40

41. The projected population 41

42. Population pyramid • a figure that show the proportion of the population in each age group. • three general types of population pyramids: those depicting rapid growth, slow growth, and population decline. • rapid-growth: the only one that really looks like a pyramid because each age cohort is larger than the one born before it.( high fertility and declines in mortality) 42

43. The evolution of the age profile of the population – past, present, future • Size and structure of pyramids determined by patterns of births, deaths and migration • Main changes observed over time are: • shrinking of the base over time due to falling fertility • thickening of the upper body indicating an increase in life expectancy • relatively longer bars on the female side around its apex indicating the predominance of females among the elderly. 43

44. Population ageing - definition • Population ageing is described as the rise in the median age of the population as a result of the shifting of the age structure of the population towards the upper end of the age distribution. • For statistical purposes the elderly is taken to be those aged 60 years and above. 44

45. Forecast of the elderly population (60+) 45

46. Thank you 46