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The “Rise” of China – and its Coming “Fall”?

The “Rise” of China – and its Coming “Fall”?. On the Minds of China’s Leaders…. Significant leadership change in 2012. National security. Stability & control. Economic growth. Awareness of challenges/weaknesses. A “Jasmine Spring”?. On the minds of China’s leaders, cont’d.

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The “Rise” of China – and its Coming “Fall”?

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  1. The “Rise” of China – and its Coming “Fall”?

  2. On the Minds of China’s Leaders… • Significant leadership change in 2012 • National security • Stability & control • Economic growth • Awareness of challenges/weaknesses

  3. A “Jasmine Spring”?

  4. On the minds of China’s leaders, cont’d. • Importance of a stable world • Conflicted world leadership • Pride & humiliation • No trend continues forever

  5. China’s achievements since 1976 • World’s 2nd largest economy

  6. China’s achievements since 1976, cont’d. • Trade has ballooned; now critical to economy • People’s livelihood has improved • Communist ideology is out • Enhanced involvement in worldwide organizations • Steady modernization of armed forces

  7. China’s achievements since 1976, cont’d. • Steady expansion • of space program • Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau

  8. “The Future Ain’t What It Used To Be!”

  9. China’s Many Challenges • Governance

  10. China’s Many Challenges • Civil Society • Economic • Corruption • Demography • Environmental degradation

  11. China’s many challenges, cont’d. • Social • Ethnic tensions • Government control • Legal • National security; • strategic policy

  12. “It’s tough making predictions, particularly about the future.”

  13. A proposition… China’s spectacular “rise” could become a “fall” for at least a period of time as challenges multiply and undermine governance, economic growth, social stability and political cohesion

  14. Possible developments • Political • Questions: • 1. Would the US and other foreign businesses begin to pull back on investment and operations in China? • 2. Would a weak Chinese government really be better for the US? • 3. Could we still say that what happens in China stays in China?

  15. Possible developments, cont’d. • Economic • Demographic • Environmental degradation and future threats • Ethnic tensions • Corruption • National security policy

  16. US Long-term Approach to China • Get our own house in order! • Recognize China long-term will be major player and seek broad and deep engagement on all levels • Maintain clear-sighted emphasis on US national interests – speak clearly, negotiate tenaciously • Maintain strong national security – seek broader engagement with Chinese military, discuss strategic goals, increase transparency and trust • Economic/trade – relentless pursuit of specific US goals • Don’t preach!

  17. What Do You Think?

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