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Air Dispersion Modeling: Planning for Airborne Terrorism Release

Air Dispersion Modeling: Planning for Airborne Terrorism Release . Tiffany LeBlanc Gerald Gruber REU Program University of Texas at Arlington. Outline. Objective Hotspot Software Gaussian Dispersion Equation Meteorology Effects: Wind and Air Stability Scenarios Modeling Results

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Air Dispersion Modeling: Planning for Airborne Terrorism Release

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  1. Air Dispersion Modeling:Planning for Airborne Terrorism Release Tiffany LeBlanc Gerald Gruber REU Program University of Texas at Arlington

  2. Outline • Objective • Hotspot Software • Gaussian Dispersion Equation • Meteorology Effects: Wind and Air Stability • Scenarios • Modeling • Results • Conclusion

  3. REU Objective • The objective of this project was to create a scenario portraying a nuclear terrorist attack using the software HotSpot. This software evaluates and models how a pollutant disperses into the atmosphere depending on certain variables.

  4. Hotspot • The HotSpot program provides approximation of the radiation effects associated with the atmospheric release of radioactive materials. • Short term accidents or releases

  5. Gaussian Dispersion Equation

  6. Gaussian Dispersion Equation

  7. Air Stability • Turbulent dispersion causes the pollutant concentrations to disperse away from the mean flow. • What are the categories of air stability? • A = Very Unstable • B = Moderately Unstable • C = Slightly Unstable • D = Neutral • E = Slightly Stable • F = Stable

  8. Air Stability • How do you determine air stability?

  9. Wind • What causes changes in wind flow? • Wind is summarized with direction and velocity. • Urban vs. Rural Environments • Urban environments produce more wind friction than rural environments. • Concentration is inversely proportional to wind speed.

  10. Scenario • There is a terrorist attack outside the stadium of the 2012 Super Bowl releasing Plutonium-238. • Variables: • Wind speed (2 m/s, 12m/s) • Air Stability (Category A and F) • Amount of explosive (Backpack 20 lbs., Car 200 lbs.) http://www.stadiumsofprofootball.com/afc/LucasOilStadium.htm, 2006

  11. Plutonium-238 • Why Plutonium- 238? • Health effects of Plutonium-238 • What is MAR? (Materials at Risk) http://news.discovery.com/space/as-nasas-plutonium-supply-dwindles-esa-eyes-nuclear-energy-program.htm, 2010 http://www.clarku.edu/departments/marsh/projects/community/plutonium.pdf, 2002

  12. Scenario • Backpack Scenario • MAR 2,000 Ci of Plutonium-238 • Urban environment • 2 m/s and 12 m/s wind speed from the South • Air Stability Category A and F • 20 lbs. of explosive • Car Scenario • MAR 2,000 Ci of Plutonium-238 • Urban environment • 2 m/s and 12 m/s wind speed from the South • Air Stability Category A and F • 200 lbs. of explosive

  13. Methods using HotSpotStep 1: Models

  14. Methods using HotSpotStep 2: Source Term

  15. Methods using HotSpotStep 3: Meteorology

  16. Methods using HotSpotStep 4: Output

  17. Using Google Earth: Plotting our source

  18. Modeling- Backpack Category F 2 m/s

  19. Modeling- Backpack Category F 2 m/s

  20. Table Output

  21. Results

  22. Modeling-Car Category F 12 m/s

  23. Table 1: Total Results

  24. Conclusion • By changing the variables, we were able to model the most devastating scenario. The variables that caused the most destruction were wind speed at 2 m/s in a stable environment and a lower amount of explosive. This evidence supports all of the background information we learned about Air Dispersion before we modeled our scenarios.

  25. Sources • Cooper, C. David., and F. C. Alley. "Chapter 20 Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling." Air Pollution Control: a Design Approach. Third ed. Prospect Heights, IL: Waveland, 2002. 607-48. Print. • Burns, Casey. Overview of Plutonium and Its Health Effects (2002): 6-9. Web. 07 July 2011. <http://www.clarku.edu/departments/marsh/projects/community/plutonium.pdf>. • Homann, Steven G. HotSpot. Computer software. National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC). Vers. 2.07.1. 2 Mar. 2010. Web. <https://narac.llnl.gov/HotSpot/HotSpot.html>. • Lucas Oil Stadium. Photograph. Indianapolis. Stadiums of Pro Football. Web. 13 July 2011. <http://www.stadiumsofprofootball.com/afc/LucasOilStadium.htm>. • O'Neil, Ian. "As NASA's Plutonium Supply Dwindles, ESA Eyes Nuclear Energy Program : Discovery News." Discovery News: Earth, Space, Tech, Animals, History, Adventure, Human, Autos. Spaceflight Now, 09 July 2010. Web. 07 July 2011. <http://news.discovery.com/space/as-nasas-plutonium-supply-dwindles-esa-eyes- nuclear-energy-program.html>. •  "Radiation Risk and Realities." United States Environmental Protection Agency. May 2007. Web. 4 July 2011. <http://www.epa.gov/rpdweb00/docs/402-k-07-006.pdf>.

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