A Method for Civilian Damage Assessment from Rockets & Missiles ISMOR 2011

1. A Method for Civilian Damage Assessment from Rockets & MissilesISMOR 2011 Maj. Barak Corem Center of System Analysis Planning Division IDF

2. Contents Background Motivation Study Questions Scope The Method Numerical Example Method’s Limitation Summary

3. Background WW-II The battle on London V1/V2 attacks 11,500launches 9,000 casualties The blitz 57 continuous bombing days 43,000 casualties 1,000,000 destroyed buildings WW-II Attacks on Berlin Iran-Iraq War “War of the Cities” 300 air strikes 20,000-50,000 casualties 200 Al-Hussein & SCUD Missiles 700 casualties

4. BackgroundDesert Storm 1991 • 39 Al-Hussein Missiles (SCUD) were launched at Israel • 10,000 Apartments suffered damage

5. 2nd Lebanon War 2006 • ~4,000 rockets were fired at Israel • Hundreds of apartments were damaged • About 40 civilian casualties

6. Motivation for the Analysis • Hezbollah & Hamas Massive Arming • Civilians are targeted • Israel • Protected Rooms / Shelters • Advanced Warning Systems

7. StudyQuestions • How many apartments are expected to suffer damage in a future war? • Estimation of structural damage • Home Front Command preparations • How many casualties are expected in a future war? • Deployment of missile defense assets • HMS Preparations

8. Scope of the Analysis • Conventionalrockets & missiles, not NBC weapons • Civilian damage only

9. Civilian Damage Assessment Method Intelligence estimation Threat to Civilian Targets Civilian Database Construction & Population Characteristic Analysis Ammunition Specifications Intelligence Warhead Testing Population Behavior Damage from Single Rocket/Missile Number of Damaged Apartments & Casualties

10. Threat to Civilian Initial Threat Legend Enemy Capabilities Offensive Achievements Interception Remaining Threat Remaining Threat

11. Construction Data • Building-level statistics • Built Area (sq. km) • Density (buildings / sq. km) • Height (m) • Apartment-level statistics • Area (sq. m) • Volume (cubic m)

12. Weapon Damage Criteria Minor Medium Heavy

13. Affected apartments Explosion on the Roof (illustration) Explosion point volume of the damage Upper half - no damage Affected volume* Buildings density Apartment volume No. of affected apartments =

14. Population Density • Raw damage estimate • (Accuracy( X)population density) • Crisis factors • Self evacuation • Reserve forces mobilization

15. High “average density” Medium “average density” Low “average density” Illustration of Density Calculation Medium “average density”

16. Weapon Damage Illustration (Affected Area per Weapon)

17. Population Behavior (Protection)

18. Casualties from Single Rocket/Missile

19. Method’s Limitation • High variance between hits (a few extreme events might cause a large proportion of the casualties) • High levels of uncertainty: • Population Obedience • Opponent Strategy

20. Summary • A method for civilian damage assessment was presented • Apartment damage • Casualties • Method applications • Prioritization of missile defense asset deployment • Interception policy • Defense systems build-up • Home front command units deployment • Preparationof the civil authorities