Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid
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NBN: The hunt for “silver bullets ” and “killer apps” i .e. it’s now about tools for apps & use, stupid. University of New England 16 November 2011 Gordon Bell Principal Researcher Microsoft Research, Silicon Valley Laboratory. Observation, bias, and challenge.

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Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

NBN: The hunt for “silver bullets”and“killer apps”i.e. it’s now about tools for apps & use, stupid.

University of New England

16 November 2011

Gordon Bell

Principal Researcher

Microsoft Research, Silicon Valley Laboratory


Observation bias and challenge

Observation, bias, and challenge

  • NBN is: Cloud Services as the Silver Bullets. It’s:“Continuous Services” for “Cloud Connected Devices”.

  • “The Cloud” will drive the NBN

  • Poster apps e.g. energy grid, education & health are Application, content,data rights limited… look elsewhere

  • NBN requires new ventures and new usesIt’s now up to engineers, scientists, and entrepreneurs

  • NBN success should or will be judged by new ventures… and their payoff


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

NBN: fiber/wireless net connecting mobile and fixed clients to a cloud computing infrastructure for applications & content

NBN

Mobile Clients

Cloud Computing:

Services & Content

Fixed Clients & Client Nets

Television Content


Computer person s view of nbn continuous services i e apps client connected devices

Computer person’s view of NBN:“Continuous Services i.e. apps & Client Connected Devices”

Cloud Computing:

Services & Content

Mobile Clients

Connected Devices

NBN

Fixed Clients & Client Nets

Television Content


Outline

Outline

  • NBN from computing perspective: It’s the cloud

  • The Internet was built for Research… got the Web!

  • The Cloud” is the next computer class…Bell’s Law

    • The Internet of Things (& Phones) create the demand

    • Science apps are critical: 4thparadigm

    • Engineering apps pay the bills:CSIRO Tasmanian sensor net

    • Health: is a cloud app … some day

    • Entrepreneur's & Services. Surveillance, lifelogging, etc.

  • Tele-x. Sarnoff’s, Metcalfe’s (Vail’s), & Reed’s Laws e.g. face2facebook. Tele-”n”-vision for sports, health


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

Colin Griffin

UNE

9/2011


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

Ed Feigenbaum, Stanford

Faculty Campus.

Fiber to the home


A tale of two approaches

A tale of two approaches

  • NBN US: Massive study re. competition & plan. Result: Let the market build it.

  • NBN Oz: Minimal study & plan. Result: Just do it.


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

Courtesy Mary Meeker Presents…


Recalling 1995 first internet world keynote 1 000 attendees

Recalling 1995: First Internet World Keynote… 1,000 attendees

Prediction of post www with fiber.

The worlds of TV, telecom, and data collide


Net history story of serendipity

Net History: Story of Serendipity

  • ARPAnetc1970 goals:

    • rlogin; load-, program-, and data-sharing… cost-motivated

  • Got:

    • rlogin (remote login)

    • mail plus as a service carrier....

    • bbs/news/chat/muds/moos

    • ftp (file transfer protocol) and

    • rpc enabled distributed computing


The colliding worlds of tv telephony datacom a k a computing internet

Games

Television

world

Telephony

world

VCR

Cable provides: TV on demand, internet & POTS

AT&T provides: POTS, wireless, DSL..., & TV tbd

CDs

>97

Wire-

less

Cable

Cable

phone

Broad-

cast

LECs

Long

Dist.

LECs

TV

DBS

The Colliding Worlds of TV, Telephony & Datacom a.k.a. Computing & Internet

PBX

Cable

I’net

I’net

Phone

ITV?

What about TV as aggregations of channels?

How much Aggregation is needed?

The

Internet

LAN

PBX

RADIO

Pvt.

WANs

clients/

servers

Wire-

less

LANs

Datacom

world


Video convergence finally

Video & Convergence…Finally

  • 90% traffic is video; Neflix 30%, YouTube 20, Bittorent

  • $1000 Bet: Nat Barrie asserts that by January 2013, the majority of video will come via computer versus conventional TV Broadcast channels that include cable e.g. Foxtel digital and over-the-air channels.

  • Computer channels include all the video content that is store and forward, on demand e.g. ABC on line, Hulu, Netflix, YouTube via all the digital IP streams e.g.  WiFi, Cable Modems, ADSL, NBN fiber.


The tv cable bundle in your hand

The TV “cable bundle” in your hand…


The cloud is a new computer class

The Cloud is a New Computer Class

  • “The Cloud” comes in various sizes, shapes, and ownership and rental models

  • It is so important that nearly all research has to be “cloud washed”


Bell s law of computer classes where we are going every decade a new class emerges and some die

Bell’s Law of Computer Classes… Where we are goingEvery Decade a new class emerges and some die

  • Every decade a new, lower (1/10th) cost class of computers emerge to cover cyberspace with a

    • New computing platform

    • New Interface to humans or something in physical world, “stuff”

    • New networking and/or interconnect structure

  • New classes  new apps  new industries

  • The classes… a decade in price every decade

    • ‘60s$millionsmainframes (central)

    • ‘70s $10K-100Kminis

    • ‘80s $10Kworkstations and PCs (personal)

    • ‘90s $1KThe Internet PCs

    • ‘00s $100s Smartphones & the “cloud” Services … XaaS

    • ‘10s$10“the cloud” & small clients (central & person)“The Internet of Things”, WSNs, sensors

    • ???In body, implantable everything.

    • ????“the singularity” computers > human


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

Cloud Computing c2010 … XaaS


Atse cloud computing sept 2010

ATSE Cloud Computing. Sept. 2010

R1The Commonwealth Government should …ensure a supportive regulatory environment.

R2The Commonwealth Government’s Commercialisation …should actively encourage new businesses that are cloud-focused at internet-scale applications.

R3The Commonwealth Department of Broadband Communications …to ensure that unnecessary impediments to the uptake of Cloud Computing are minimised.

R4Australian universities should expand … to build knowledge and skills in cloud computing.

R5 The Commonwealth Government should create and fund an Australian equivalent of the NSF’s Cluster Exploratory Programand the NSF-Microsoft Program to actively encourage cloud computing.

R6 The National Research Infrastructure Council (NRIC) should refine its investment plans to reflect the benefits that cloud computing can provide.

R7The Commonwealth Government should ensure that proposals for research data storage using Super Science funds have evaluated cloud computing services.


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

ATSE Cloud Computing ReportSeptember 2010

(find the NBN in this picture)


The internet of things smart world devices for health energy science etc

The Internet of Things= Smart World… devices for health, energy, science, etc.

  • Things: appliances, platforms, peripherals, WSNs,… phones that have been evolving for decades

  • Anything, Anytime, Anywhere, Anyway, Always Applications:

    • Mostly mobile phones, the foreseeable future

    • scientific sensors for transforming science

    • networks monitoring and control—water, traffic, power, health/wellness, earth science, … smart(x)


Net gadgeteer

.netgadgeteer

Microsoft Gadgeteer


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

Courtesy Mary Meeker Presents…


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

Courtesy Mary Meeker Presents…


Smartphones are today personal mainframes

Functions integrated into cell phones aka Smart Phones aka small form factor devices aka handheld computers

TVeBookGeoVector

eBook, TVPointing anywhere*

Health monitor

BodyMedia

Multimedia player

iPod

Smartphone & PC with apps

Windows Mobile

WWW.

Web Browsing

Email

BlackBerry

Programmable platform -PC with apps

PocketPC

Digital Audio Player

Rio & Music svc

Camera addition

Imaging

GPS service

GPS service Availability

PDA Functionality

Palm

SMS Service

SMS

US mobile phones licensed (AMPS)

Cellular net

handheldgames

Gameboy

2002

1979

1983

1992

1995

1995

1997

1998

1999

2000

2002

2002

2003

2007 2010

Increasing bandwidth protocols e.g. GSM, service generations enabler not shown

Notes:

Audio recording, video capture, videophone, and mobile TV not shown

*GPS: location lat, long, alt. 3 axis compass; 6 axis accel.

Smartphones are today’ personal mainframes


Complete 1 mm 3 systems mote

Complete, 1 mm3 Systems--mote

MicroProc

Battery

Solar cell

Xmitter

Sensor

5.3 nW


Science and engineering apps

Science and Engineering Apps…

  • The Fourth Paradigm of scientific discovery

  • Science and Engineering are both real time

    • Science closed loop is o(years to decades)

    • Engineering is for sensing and immediate control


Sensing

Sensing…

Observations by human operators

Sharing of data

To effect change

Sensors*

REAL WORLD System

*Sensor/effector may be people


Real time control ideal sans noise

Real time Control (ideal sans noise)

Plain old closed loop control

Model of REAL WORLD System

Advice(t+1)

Controller

(Processing, policies & people)

Sensors*

REAL WORLD System

Effectors*

*Sensor/effector may be people


Four science paradigms

Thousand years ago: science was empirical

describing natural phenomena

Last few hundred years: theoretical branchusing models, generalizations

Last few decades: a computational branch simulating phenomena

Today: data exploration branch (eScience)

unify theory, experiment, and simulation

Data captured by instruments or simulation

Processed by software

Information/Knowledge stored in computer for enquiry

Scientist analyzes database / filesusing data management and statistics

Data lives & is accessed forever

Jim Gray

NRC-CSTB

Four Science Paradigms


Synthesizing imagery sensors models and field data

Synthesizing Imagery, Sensors, Models and Field Data

FLUXNET

Curated sensor

30GB dataset

(960 files)

Climate classification

~1MB (1file)

FLUXNET

curated

field dataset

2 KB (1 file)

Vegetative clumping

~5MB (1file)

NASA MODIS imagery archives

5 TB (600K files)

Sizes given are 1 US year

20 US year ~ 1 global land surface year

NCEP/NCAR ~100MB

(4K files)


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

Global Scale

Reprojection

Global Scale

Reduction

Archive

Download

Continental US


Modisazure by the numbers

ModisAzure By the numbers….

  • 22 months

  • 2 CS interns; 1 architect; 1 science intern; 1 senior scientist; 3 hangers-on

  • 522 K cpu hours

  • 14 TB upload

  • 10 TB max storage

  • 5 TB download

  • 2.3 B storage operations

  • 1.3 M re-projected tiles

  • 25 M reduction files

  • (TBD) VM scaleup/scaledown operations

  • (TBD) Lines of (nonMatLab) code

  • $79K external billing

    Courtesy Catharine van Ingen


First escience lab enabled by cloud computing

Seed funding from

-- minerals and geothermal research at www.pir.sa.gov.au

-- Microsoft Research USA Jim Gray Seed Grant

-- MSR Azure funding 433,000 hours

-- Institute for Minerals and Energy

First eScience Lab enabled by cloud computing


Nbn for remote access to compute and historical data

Vision:

A geologist guiding a drill, using real-time sensing of the sub-surface geology, and updating geological models, while referring to her cloud-based data sets and collaborating with her team back home

Geologist

in field

Compute

Modelling on-Demand

MT Inversion Seismic Inversion. Joint Inversion. Visualisation.

drilling machine

control system

Data

and geologist’sdata integrations.

Seismic, Satellite,

MT, Petrophysical, Cores, Density, etc.

NBN for remote access to compute and historical data

guiding

Collaboration

Sub-surface

Sensing– a dozen or more sensors

Seismic

XRF

Resistivity

etc

Collaborative Cloud Computing Lab (C3L)


Magnetotelluric mt imaging

Magnetotelluric (MT) imaging

  • Using the magnetic and electric fields of the earth, MT imaging determines the resistivity structure of a sub-surface area of interest.

  • It goes deeper (hundred or so Km) than seismic (<2 Km) but does not have the same resolution

  • Applications

    • mineral exploration,

    • water management in mining,

    • geothermal exploration,

    • carbon storage,

    • aquifer research and management

    • earthquake and volcano studies.

(Heinson and Mudge, 2010)

A platform technology


M assive parallel processing peak demand interactive control field deployment

Massive parallel processing - peak demand - interactive control-field deployment

Parallel programming models are at

  • Program level

    • Express data parallelism in MapReduce/Hadoop/DryadLINQ

  • Job level

    • Workflow languages define concurrent execution

      Restructuring of MT processing steps and pulling all parameter inputs to the start, results in parallel processing of station data, and better workflow

  • Ultimately field deployment at many sites


The south esk hydrological sensor web next generation catchment management

The South Esk Hydrological Sensor Web: Next-Generation Catchment Management

Water for a Healthy Country

Andrew Terhorst

Tasmanian ICT Centre (Hobart WSM real time) award winner

9 September 2011


Integrating sensor data from multiple agencies creating a services infrastructure bottom up

Integrating sensor data from multiple agenciesCreating a services infrastructure “bottom up”

2011 iAwards - Sustainability and Green IT


Project goal

Project goal

Develop a prototype water information system made up of two linked sub-systems:

  • Continuous flow forecast system

    • Based on emerging Sensor Web standards

  • Provenance management system

    • Provides information on how flow forecasts are produced

2011 iAwards - Sustainability and Green IT


Paradigm shift

Paradigm shift

Numerical Models

Decision Support

Tools

Semantic

Broker

Application Layer

Sensor Web

Services Layer

Physical Sensors, Observation Archives

Sensor Layer

2011 iAwards - Sustainability and Green IT


The killer app health my favorite dear to my heart

The “killer app”… Health!—my favoritedear to my heart


Sensors with ip on everything

Sensors with IP On Everything


Cloud service 1 million mammograms

Cloud service, =1 million mammograms*

  • Cost of store Amazon $US 0.125 / GB-month

    • $1.50 / GB-year; $0.15 / 100 MB-year (person)

    • $150,000 per million person-years

    • Cost of long term storage will decline

  • Access is fully distributed, including

    • Digital X-ray capture stations (2 min. upload/download)

    • Reading stations can be anywhere, including computers and services in the cloud

    • Legacy X-ray digitization as needed

  • Secondary, yet principal benefit: analytics based on age, wt., location, …

  • * Proposed at AEHR Conference 31 March 2009


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

Imaging data flow

Web-based Image viewer

Web-based Image viewer

Web-based Image viewer

4

MICROSOFT CLOUD storageHealthVault - image metadata, blog catalog and access keyring

Azure - binary image data (original DICOM images, presentation state,

compressed pre-views

2

1

5

3

-Embedded

-UIS

Images are harvested by either Amalga-Embedded or full UIS

Images captured within the

enterprise are safely and cost-effectively stored in the Cloud – where they can be referenced in multiple use cases and monetized on an ongoing basis

Scenarios

HealthVault

Enterprise to provider

Enterprise to patient

Enterprise to enterprise

Patient to provider (2nd opinion) Enterprise backup

Azure


Health continuous sensing devices

Health continuous sensing devices


Bodymedia output

BodyMedia Output


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

c2002


Hr weight bp distance

HR, weight, BP, distance,


Fitbit pedometer

Fitbit … Pedometer


Smartphones are becoming the personal healthcare platform mainframe

Smartphones are becoming “the” Personal Healthcare Platform--Mainframe

Where was I,

what was I doing,

who was I with,

(what meeting)

when I had a high HR or high stress indicator ?


When will health adopt the cloud

When will health adopt the cloud?

  • Health is all about friction* and preserving it

  • Many other NON NBN, NON Technology factors e.g. privacy, standards, proprietary interfaces, n-opolies, guilds aka silos, vocabularies,…

  • Cloud service is inevitable for EHR<>Physician

  • *People doing the same old thing, the same old way that creates social stability at rising cost


Health monitoring your husband just died here s his black box

Health Monitoring:“Your husband just died, … here’s his black box”


Entrepreneurs unbounded opportunity

Entrepreneurs… unbounded opportunity

  • Sensr.net

  • //deepvue.com

  • Cyclists: communication, performance, etc.


Nbn what about network costs courtesy of orionvm a high speed cloud service

NBN … what about network costs?Courtesy of OrionVMa high speed cloud service

Transit Networking Costs c2011

Australia - Price per Mbps = $90-140 p/m (Vocus/Soul)

US - Price per Mbps = $1 p/m (HE.net)

Datacentre Power Costs c2011

Australia - 15A @ 240V Usable = $1540 p/m (VocusDC)

US - 30A @ 120V Usable = $900 p/m (Hurricane Electric)

$30/GB to university researchers limits & eliminates research


Mylifebits recording everything

MyLifeBits: Recording Everything!

  • Bell/Gemmell project 1999-2007

  • Record, store, and recall everything in a person’s life

  • Total Recall aka Your Life Uploaded

  • Narcissistic or essential


Extreme lifelogging recording everything c2000 on pcs c2010 in the cloud via phones

Extreme Lifelogging: Recording Everything c2000 on PCs; c2010 in the cloud via phones

  • In 1945 Vannevar Bush described a scientist's memex to store books, records and communication… an enlarged intimate supplement to his memory." By 2010, we demonstrated most aspects of complete lifelogging to capture much of a person's lifetime information.

  • Lifelogging is enabled by: information capture (e.g. cameras, computers, GPS devices, medical devices, scanners, smart phones); terabyte storage; and ability to retrieve and utilize the information.

  • The degree of lifelogging will be determined by: laws and privacy conventions e.g. recording conversations and demonstrated utility.

  • By using lifelogs, social scientists will be able to gain unlimited behavioral understanding. In the distance, lifelogs provide the basis for a limited kind of immortality.


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

Capturing every step


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

http://deepvue.com

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/deepvue/id402406102?mt=8


Sensr net why cameras need to be in cloud

Sensr.net…why cameras need to be in cloud!


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

Tele-x a canonical app to absorb bandwidth that is hardly usedvs.Tele-vision made interactive or multiple access sporting events

Telepresence: Being there, while being here, and at some other time. Time & space shifting.

Tele-presentations, tele-conferencing, videophone, tele-robotics, VR, tele-learning


Cisco telepresence system 3200 340 000 08 interoperates with cisco

Cisco Telepresence System 3200: $340,000 ’08Interoperates with Cisco


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

InTouch Health Robot for tele-doctor patient visiting… “presence” of patient records is the hard part! c2004


Nbn the hunt for silver bullets and killer apps i e it s now about tools for apps use stupid

. . . To boldly go where no doctor has gone before.


Summary 2020 it s the apps stupid

Summary… 2020: It’s the apps, stupid!

  • NBN is: Cloud Services. It’s Not: fiber. It’s:“Continuous Services for Cloud Connected Devices”.

  • Poster apps e.g. energy grid, education & health are not fiber limited! Application, content,data rights respectively are the limits

  • Scientific apps are challenging

  • Engineering apps will be profitable

  • NBN success should/will be judged by new ventures…


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