David Hastings Information, Communication and Space Technology Division

1. 0: Contents: • 0. Overview • Stocktaking – the situation is better than one may think • Technical situation – several options are available • Economic situation – everyone should be able to have access, even if shared. • Institutional situation – role models exist. The Pacific has good opportunities – if it moves soon. • Appendices – online only David Hastings Information, Communication and Space Technology Division United Nations ESCAP, Bangkok hastings@un.org

2. 1: Stocktaking background

3. 2: Pacific Islands Socioeconomics – “Bargain knowledge workers”

4. 3: Typically Expressed ChallengesNow: good answers for most • Small populations (is 10+ million people small – compared with success stories like Singapore, Hong Kong, the Eastern Caribbean, Mauritius?). • Widely dispersed/isolated (like Atlantic Ocean African cities, Mauritius, the Eastern Caribbean?). • About half of ~600 populated islands have telecoms - much of those have 2-way radio. (Solar-powered satellite phone can be cheaper (~40 cents/minute) than current systems for long-distance calling or emergency communication in some economies.) • Saddled with legacy “monopolistic” concessions This is a policy which can be maintained or changed. (The eastern Caribbean found that monopolies violate constitutional provisions for freedom of expression, including to receive and disseminate freely). • Not attractive to investors (But many are knowledge societies with 90+% literacy and more than competitive wages, or are excellent markets for distance education – Pacific islands are solutions awaiting good partners). Maybe US$80 million/year could be available for investors, if more competitive prices/services were available. • Cable and satellite are expensive (Telikom PNG just re-deployed 1st-generation cable for US$11 million. Adding Tonga, Samoa or Vanuatu to existing cabling might cost $4 million each. A new broadband satellite, with local participation, could serve Pacific island states as well as bigger markets. Is it time to pursue such goals?)

5. 4: Options

6. 5: An alternative to high-priced 2G cable? Re-deployed (good quality) 1G cable ~$2-5 million per leg? “SPIN++” or for US$35-50M, rather than for US$100+M?

7. 6: How much for a Pacific satellite? Can it attract markets in Asia, ANZ, Americas? EDUSAT was built and launched for $65 million. Could 2 EDUSATs serve you? Pacific island states service centres Anik F2 spot beams

8. 7: Thuraya ECO SIM: USA$.20/.39 calls – coverage area

9. 8: DC-powered terminals, PCs, phones(universal service – even off the power grid)

10. 9: Economic

11. 10:Is there enough moneyto pay for improvements? • Prof. James McMaster estimated US$66M/year saved by current-model telecoms. 13 Pacific economies. • For all economies in this study, we guess US$80M/yr => >US$1.2 Billion over 15 years of cable, satellite. • Satellite =>$100-400M? Cable => $50-500M? • 15 yr savings => $1200M? => “the money is there” (?)

12. 11: A challenge: Falling telecoms prices: Will they bankrupt providers? (Traffic growth usually outpaces price declines – bringing profits) Source: Telegeography

13. 12: Institutional

14. 13: Good experiences? (satellite) • OPT & Telecom Cook Islands – shared satcom bandwidth. Such models can save $$$ elsewhere in the Pacific. • Before going for a new satellite, should Pacific consortia try negotiating with Sat-GE-23, AsiaSat, and others (to form a supplier/user consortium) to serve the Pacific safely for less $ • O3B Networks – sounds good – but details of up-front, marginal (bandwidth, Earth station operations costs), and possible regulatory challenges are needed. Good experiences? (cable) Affordable re-deployment of 1st-generation cable? PNG? Samoa (an update today?)

15. 14: Good experiences? (regulatory, etc.) • ECTEL’s Caribbean federation helped small island states build competitive modern telecoms systems. • Dominica determined that restriction of telecoms competition infringed onconstitutional freedom of expression. Laws & contracts establishing monopolies were declared unconstitutional, thus void. • Competitive mobile phone services/pricing in the Caribbean & elsewhere are dramatically increasing accessibility, even to low-income people.

16. 15: Possible Next Steps? • Short-term?: (a) Forming state-provider user consortia to aggregate user volumes, to obtain more cost-effective group(ed) rates satellite operators for cheaper bandwidth? (PITA is working on this.) (b) be ready to negotiate (cohesively?) with possible cable promoters? • Medium-term?: (a) pursue wholesale-able & retail-able affordable infrastructure? (b) pursue services? (c) pursue partnerships toward providing more cutting edge services/pricing? (d) opportunistically pursue cable landings as opportunities may arise? • Longer-term?: (a) pursue a satellite, and additional marketable services? (b) pursue additional retailers, who could become your customers for wholesaling services?

17. 16: Summary • Typically expressed challenges – Now: good answers for most. • Is there enough money to pay for improvements?Yes. • Do governments have to pay for or subsidize infrastructure or customers?No. • Good experiences to adapt? – how to leverage for the Pacific? • Monopolies – (1) Found to be unconstitutional impingement of freedom of expression in the Caribbean. Laws, contracts were declared void. (2) Competitors DO want to come into small economies, where opportunity exists. (3) A single provider CAN act competitively – but supportive practices, and accountability, need to be in place. • Are people offering you a cable for $50-150 million? How about $3-15 million as happened for PNG?Are they offering landings for $3 million?(How about being a part owner if you must capitalize the system, as was done for WASC in Africa)? • Short-term satellite – groups arranging for better collective deals? It happened in .pf and .ci. Western Pacific – 40-cent/minute international satcom phone calls? (Thuraya ECO system.) • Longer-term: Can the Pacific get a satellite, also generating revenue from Pacific rim economies? Something like this was offered to the Pacific, but “not responded to”. It could be offered again. Satellites are often costed at $300+ million. But they have been built/launched for < $100 million. • Pacific decisionmakers could use a colleague network to make good decisions, and to design, build, operate and support good modern telecoms. • How to benefit from cooperation?: The Pacific has many regional cooperative institutions, among governments & service providers. At Noumea in March (2008), a strategy for moving forward, using the Pacific Plan Digital Strategy, was sketched. Is this what you also think? Are more resources useful? I wish I were with you for the rest of the day, as you discuss this and other issues on moving forward.

18. 17: For the Pacific – is it time to better leverage regional cooperation toward affordable “universal service?” For several other non-ideally connected economies. Maybe there is a little of the Pacific (‘s problems) in you, and a little of you (‘re problems) in the Pacific? Is there an opportunity to strengthen your own situation through greater cooperation? Thank You! David Hastings (author-speaker): hastingsd@un.org (to 31 December) roi@earthling.net (after 31 December) WU Guoxiang (ESCAP, Bangkok): wugu@un.org