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15 th GPA Canada / PJVA Annual Joint Conference Gas Transportation Developments in the WCSB

15 th GPA Canada / PJVA Annual Joint Conference Gas Transportation Developments in the WCSB. Dave Murray Manager, Supply, Commercial – West Canadian Pipelines November 12, 2008. 50 th Anniversary:. Last Weld on the Canadian Mainline Kapuskasing, Ontario - October 10, 1958. TransCanada

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15 th GPA Canada / PJVA Annual Joint Conference Gas Transportation Developments in the WCSB

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  1. 15th GPA Canada / PJVA Annual Joint Conference Gas Transportation Developmentsin the WCSB Dave Murray Manager, Supply, Commercial – West Canadian Pipelines November 12, 2008

  2. 50th Anniversary: Last Weld on the Canadian MainlineKapuskasing, Ontario - October 10, 1958

  3. TransCanada is a leading North American energy infrastructure company Natural Gas Pipelines Oil Pipelines (in construction) Proposed Pipelines Power Plants Gas Storage Facilities • 59,000 km (36,500 mi) of wholly owned natural gas pipeline • Interests in an additional 7,800 km (4,800 mi) of natural gas pipeline • 15 Bcf/d • 355 Bcf of natural gas storage capacity • 19 power plants • 10,900 megawatts • 1.1 million bpd crude oil pipeline under construction

  4. North American Natural Gas Resources • Major conventional natural gas basins in North America marked in green • Emerging shale natural gas basins (marked in brown) in North America may add significant supply Muskwa, Besa & Horn River Shales Montney Shale Colorado Group Shales Utica, Trenton Black River & Marcellus Shale Atrim Shale New Albany Shale Ohio Shale Woodford Shale Lewis & Mancos Shale Feyetteville Shale Barnett Shale Haynesville Shale

  5. North American Gas Supply and Demand Bcf/d History Forecast Other Demand Eastern Canada WCSB U.S. Rockies Gulf of Mexico Mid-Continent U.S. Other Mexico Source: TransCanada

  6. Western Canadian Natural Gas Supply/Demand Exports Source: TransCanada

  7. Current jurisdictional framework prevents the Alberta System from providing integrated service to customers that lie outside Alberta Jurisdictional change will eliminate this constraint Opportunities that cross provincial border: Northeast BC – Horn River, Montney, Fort Nelson, McMahon plus others Alaska Alberta System JurisdictionBackground

  8. Application was filed with NEB, June 17, 2008 Additional evidence filed September 5, 2008 Two phases Whether the Alberta System is now properly within federal jurisdiction and subject to regulation by the NEB Whether the Alberta System is required by the present and future public convenience and necessity NEB Process Two phases heard in parallel Oral Hearing commences November 18 Q1, 2009 Decision Alberta System Jurisdiction

  9. Business as usual in the interim – AUC oversight Rates and Services are not expected to change as a result of a change in jurisdiction Rates and Services discussion ongoing Jurisdictional change does not automatically result in roll-in of new facilities Alberta System Jurisdiction It sets the stage

  10. ATCO Pipelines IntegrationBackground and History ATCO Pipelines (AP) and NGTL (Alberta System) have operated independently Customers with business that transcend AP/NGTL boundaries have faced stacked tolls For many years, a full integration of AP and NGTL has been contemplated and advocated by many: NGTL 95 GRA, ATCO 94/95 GRA, NGTL 04 GRA and others

  11. AP and NGTL have reached agreement on a proposed integration model Subject to regulatory approval The model would: Create a single gas transmission enterprise with the objective of providing seamless gas transmission service in Alberta Provide a single: Tariff Rate design philosophy System design philosophy Service provider Eliminate stacked tolls for all gas transmission customers Optimize facility and operating solutions Determine who builds expansion facilities Central Alberta Footprint (CAF) ATCO Pipelines IntegrationTransaction Overview

  12. Benefits to Customers • Direct access to and from NIT • Single rate design eliminates toll stacking • Single system design philosophy provides optimized facility construction and operation • Improved efficiency of regulatory process • Single commercial interface • Simplified processes for customers Greater certainty Potential Synergies Clarity Simplicity

  13. On June 4, 2007 The EUB established the NGL Inquiry to examine issues with the perceived inequities of the current NGL rights extraction convention Issues: Supply/demand forecast of gas and NGL Side-streaming and co-streaming Extraction Conventions on EUB regulated pipelines Lean gas streaming TransCanada’s Position Current extraction convention should be replaced with a Receipt Point model - NEXT NGL Inquiry

  14. Recent Developments - Pipelines Pipelines Proposed Pipelines Gas Storage Facilities Conventional Gas Basins Alaska Pipeline Project Mackenzie Gas Pipeline • Alaska Pipeline • Alaska Senate and House of Representatives voted in favour of granting TransCanada a license to build the Alaska pipeline • Governor Sarah Palin signed the Bill that authorizes granting the license to TransCanada on August 27 • Commence open season work • Mackenzie Gas Pipeline • Public hearing phase of the regulatory process largely complete. Awaiting report of Joint Review Panel, likely in 2009 • Project proponents involved in discussions with Canadian federal government to financially restructure project 14

  15. Pipelines Proposed Pipeline Shale gas basins Alberta System – Projects Pipelines Proposed Pipelines Gas Storage Facilities Fort Nelson North Central Corridor • North Central Corridor • 300 km of 42” pipe • 26 MW of compression • Approximately $925 million • In-service 2010 Fort McMurrayDemand Region Groundbirch AB BC

  16. New B.C. Unconventional Developments • Horn River/Cordova • ~ 700 Tcf OGIP • 10 - 15 wells drilled • 10% CO2, dry gas • Players:Apache, EnCana, EOG, Nexen, Quicksilver, Devon, Crew, Imperial • Montney/Doig • ~ 400 Tcf OGIP • 70 – 75 Hz wells drilled • Major Players:EnCana, Murphy, ARC • Shell (Duvernay), Storm Birchcliff, Cinch Horn River Devonian MuskwaMarine Shales Montney Triassic MontneyTight Sands/silts/shales

  17. B.C. Production Forecast (Preliminary) Bcf/d History Forecast ? ? 1 Bcf/d from both Montney and Horn River by 2012 Source: TransCanada

  18. Pipelines Proposed Pipeline Shale gas basins Alberta System – Projects Cabin Pipelines Proposed Pipelines Gas Storage Facilities Fort Nelson Ekwan Horn River Basin • Horn River Project • Shipper requests for more than 1 Bcf/d by 2012 to connect Horn River area of BC to TransCanada’s Alberta System • Current Binding Open Season running until November 21, 2008 • Expected in-service Q2 2011 Groundbirch AB BC

  19. Pipelines Proposed Pipeline Shale gas basins Alberta System – Pipeline Options Cabin Pipelines Proposed Pipelines Gas Storage Facilities Fort Nelson Montney Formation • GroundbirchPipeline Project • Shipper requests for more than 1 Bcf/d by 2012 to connect Montney area of BC to TransCanada’s Alberta System • Current Binding Open Season running until November 21, 2008 • Expected in-service Q4 2010 Groundbirch Gordondale AB BC

  20. Pipelines Proposed Pipeline Shale gas basins Alberta System – Pipeline Options Cabin Pipelines Proposed Pipelines Gas Storage Facilities Fort Nelson Fort Nelson / McMahon • Fort Nelson / McMahonOpen Season • During Non-binding Open Season parties expressed interest in service from outlet of Fort Nelson and McMahon plants to Alberta • Current Binding Open Season running until November 21, 2008 McMahon Groundbirch AB BC

  21. The WCSB Future Potential Pipelines Proposed Pipelines Gas Storage Facilities Conventional gas basins Shale gas basins • Well connected to North American markets • Supply potential shifting toward new resource plays within basin • New commercial and physical solutions are being developed to ensure the gas transportation infrastructure meets the needs of the basin for both today and the future

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