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The NWS/NCAR “Forecaster Over the Loop” Fort Worth Operational Demonstration. Human Enhancement of a Thunderstorm Nowcasting System. Eric Nelson, Rita Roberts, Tom Saxen and Huaqing Cai. Ft. Worth Auto-Nowcaster Demonstration. 2 Year Demonstration

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The nws ncar forecaster over the loop fort worth operational demonstration

The NWS/NCAR “Forecaster Over the Loop” Fort Worth Operational Demonstration

Human Enhancement of a Thunderstorm Nowcasting System

Eric Nelson, Rita Roberts, Tom Saxen and Huaqing Cai


Ft worth auto nowcaster demonstration
Ft. Worth Auto-Nowcaster Demonstration Operational Demonstration

  • 2 Year Demonstration

  • Transfer Auto-Nowcaster capabilities to NWS for gridded aviation forecasts.

  • Demonstrate improved forecast skill incorporating human forecast input.


Auto nowcaster role

ANC Operational Demonstration

Auto-Nowcaster Role

Forecaster

USER

DATA


Demonstration components

ANC Operational Demonstration

Demonstration Components

NWS

CWSU

DATA


Ncar auto nowcaster

Initiation Forecasts Operational Demonstration

Extrapolation

NCAR Auto-Nowcaster

  • Routine (5mins) short-term (0-1hour) forecasts of thunderstorm initiation, growth and decay.

  • Uses fuzzy logic to combine observations, NWP and forecaster input to generate nowcasts.


Environmental conditions (RUC) Operational Demonstration

Frontal likelihood

Layered stability

CAPE (max between 900 and 700 mb)

CIN (mean value between 975 and 900 mb)

Mean 875 to 725 mb Relative Humidity

Theta-e gradient

Boundary-layer

Convergence

LI (based on METARS)

Vertical velocity along boundary (maxW)

Boundary-relative steering flow

New storm development along boundary

Clouds

Clear or Cumulus

Vertical develop as observed by drop in IR temps

Other fields

3hr precip accum

Predictor Fields used for Combined Likelihood of Initiation

Blue Regions - Little chance of storm development

Green Regions - Moderate likelihood

Red Regions - Areas of forecast initiation


Flow Chart for the Auto-Nowcaster System Operational Demonstration

Data Sets

Boundaries

Predictor Fields

Fuzzy Logic Algorithm

- Membership functions

- weights

- Combined likelihood field

Final Prediction

Analysis Algorithms

Forecaster Input


Flow Chart for the Auto-Nowcaster System Operational Demonstration

Data Sets

Boundaries

Predictor Fields

Regime

Selection

&

PolygonsNudging

Fuzzy Logic Algorithm

- Membership functions

- weights

- Combined likelihood field

Final Prediction

Analysis Algorithms

Forecaster Input




Initiation likelihood nudging
Initiation Likelihood Nudging Operational Demonstration


Dryline initiation case
Dryline Initiation Case Operational Demonstration

Forecast: 2030 UTC

Radar: 2030 UTC

Forecast: 2030 UTC

Radar: 2130 UTC

April 21, 2005


Forecast: Operational Demonstration 2036 UTC

Radar: 2036 UTC

Forecast: 2036 UTC

Radar: 2136 UTC

White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz


Forecast: Operational Demonstration 2042 UTC

Radar: 2042 UTC

Forecast: 2042 UTC

Radar: 2142 UTC

White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz


Forecast: Operational Demonstration 2048 UTC

Radar: 2048 UTC

Forecast: 2048 UTC

Radar: 2148 UTC

White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz


Forecast: Operational Demonstration 2100 UTC

Radar: 2100 UTC

Forecast: 2100 UTC

Radar: 2200 UTC

White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz


Forecast: Operational Demonstration 2118 UTC

Radar: 2118 UTC

Forecast: 2118 UTC

Radar: 2218 UTC

White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz


Forecast: Operational Demonstration 2142 UTC

Radar: 2142 UTC

Forecast: 2142 UTC

Radar: 2242 UTC

White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz


Forecast: Operational Demonstration 2206 UTC

Radar: 2206 UTC

Forecast: 2206 UTC

Radar: 2306 UTC

White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz


Forecast: Operational Demonstration 2224 UTC

Radar: 2224 UTC

Forecast: 2224 UTC

Radar: 2324 UTC

White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz


Forecast: Operational Demonstration 2236 UTC

Radar: 2236 UTC

Forecast: 2236 UTC

Radar: 2336 UTC

White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz


Forecast: Operational Demonstration 2248 UTC

Radar: 2248 UTC

Forecast: 2248 UTC

Radar: 2348 UTC

White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz


Forecast: Operational Demonstration 2300 UTC

Radar: 2300 UTC

Forecast: 2300 UTC

Radar: 0000 UTC

White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz


Forecast: Operational Demonstration 2312 UTC

Radar: 2312 UTC

Forecast: 2312 UTC

Radar: 0012 UTC

White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz


Improvements and continuing work
Improvements and Continuing Work Operational Demonstration

  • User interface transfer to NWS AWIPS system

  • New regime for elevated convection

  • Fine tuning and evaluation of existing regimes

  • Quantitative statistics on overall human impact on forecasts


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