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The NWS/NCAR “Forecaster Over the Loop” Fort Worth Operational Demonstration

The NWS/NCAR “Forecaster Over the Loop” Fort Worth Operational Demonstration. Human Enhancement of a Thunderstorm Nowcasting System. Eric Nelson, Rita Roberts, Tom Saxen and Huaqing Cai. Ft. Worth Auto-Nowcaster Demonstration. 2 Year Demonstration

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The NWS/NCAR “Forecaster Over the Loop” Fort Worth Operational Demonstration

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  1. The NWS/NCAR “Forecaster Over the Loop” Fort Worth Operational Demonstration Human Enhancement of a Thunderstorm Nowcasting System Eric Nelson, Rita Roberts, Tom Saxen and Huaqing Cai

  2. Ft. Worth Auto-Nowcaster Demonstration • 2 Year Demonstration • Transfer Auto-Nowcaster capabilities to NWS for gridded aviation forecasts. • Demonstrate improved forecast skill incorporating human forecast input.

  3. ANC Auto-Nowcaster Role Forecaster USER DATA

  4. ANC Demonstration Components NWS CWSU DATA

  5. Initiation Forecasts Extrapolation NCAR Auto-Nowcaster • Routine (5mins) short-term (0-1hour) forecasts of thunderstorm initiation, growth and decay. • Uses fuzzy logic to combine observations, NWP and forecaster input to generate nowcasts.

  6. Environmental conditions (RUC) Frontal likelihood Layered stability CAPE (max between 900 and 700 mb) CIN (mean value between 975 and 900 mb) Mean 875 to 725 mb Relative Humidity Theta-e gradient Boundary-layer Convergence LI (based on METARS) Vertical velocity along boundary (maxW) Boundary-relative steering flow New storm development along boundary Clouds Clear or Cumulus Vertical develop as observed by drop in IR temps Other fields 3hr precip accum Predictor Fields used for Combined Likelihood of Initiation Blue Regions - Little chance of storm development Green Regions - Moderate likelihood Red Regions - Areas of forecast initiation

  7. Flow Chart for the Auto-Nowcaster System Data Sets Boundaries Predictor Fields Fuzzy Logic Algorithm - Membership functions - weights - Combined likelihood field Final Prediction Analysis Algorithms Forecaster Input

  8. Flow Chart for the Auto-Nowcaster System Data Sets Boundaries Predictor Fields Regime Selection & PolygonsNudging Fuzzy Logic Algorithm - Membership functions - weights - Combined likelihood field Final Prediction Analysis Algorithms Forecaster Input

  9. Initiation Likelihood with No Polygon Weight

  10. Initiation Likelihood with Polygon Weight

  11. Initiation Likelihood Nudging

  12. Dryline Initiation Case Forecast: 2030 UTC Radar: 2030 UTC Forecast: 2030 UTC Radar: 2130 UTC April 21, 2005

  13. Forecast: 2036 UTC Radar: 2036 UTC Forecast: 2036 UTC Radar: 2136 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

  14. Forecast: 2042 UTC Radar: 2042 UTC Forecast: 2042 UTC Radar: 2142 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

  15. Forecast: 2048 UTC Radar: 2048 UTC Forecast: 2048 UTC Radar: 2148 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

  16. Forecast: 2100 UTC Radar: 2100 UTC Forecast: 2100 UTC Radar: 2200 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

  17. Forecast: 2118 UTC Radar: 2118 UTC Forecast: 2118 UTC Radar: 2218 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

  18. Forecast: 2142 UTC Radar: 2142 UTC Forecast: 2142 UTC Radar: 2242 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

  19. Forecast: 2206 UTC Radar: 2206 UTC Forecast: 2206 UTC Radar: 2306 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

  20. Forecast: 2224 UTC Radar: 2224 UTC Forecast: 2224 UTC Radar: 2324 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

  21. Forecast: 2236 UTC Radar: 2236 UTC Forecast: 2236 UTC Radar: 2336 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

  22. Forecast: 2248 UTC Radar: 2248 UTC Forecast: 2248 UTC Radar: 2348 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

  23. Forecast: 2300 UTC Radar: 2300 UTC Forecast: 2300 UTC Radar: 0000 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

  24. Forecast: 2312 UTC Radar: 2312 UTC Forecast: 2312 UTC Radar: 0012 UTC White Contour: 60min Initiation Nowcast; Color Shades=Reflectivity >20dbz

  25. Improvements and Continuing Work • User interface transfer to NWS AWIPS system • New regime for elevated convection • Fine tuning and evaluation of existing regimes • Quantitative statistics on overall human impact on forecasts

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