Presentation Transcript

1. Thailand

2. Introduction Periods of military rule are punctuated by attempts at democracy that are periodically challenged by the military as things go wrong. Black May 1992 removed military leader from power and put civilian leaders into place including AnandPanyarachun, Chuan Leekpai, BarnharnSilapa-archa, and ChavalitYongchaiyudh. The 1997 Asian financial crisis set the stage for the drama that has been Thai politics for the last few years 2001-2006 – ThaksinShinawatra and Thai Rakh Thai opposed by People’s Alliance for Democracy (yellow shirts, PAD) led SondhiLimthongul, another media mogul 2006 Coup overthrows Shinawatra while away in New York and creates new Constitution People’s Power Party, the successor party to TRT, wins elections under new Constitution and attempt to amend spurring more protests by PAD over the tenure of two PPP prime ministers – 2008 crisis Democratic party and AbhisitVejjajiva form a coalition government and encounter protests from The United Front of Democracy against dictatorship (red shirts, UDD) oppose this silent coup and disrupt ASEAN summit
3. Institutions and Social Groups Monarchy – King BhumibolAdulyadej – supported rural reform – supported Prime Minister PremTinsulanond against military coups in 80s – intervened 1992 and 2006 crises – lesemajeste laws shield monarch from criticism – succession crisis possible Constitutions – Faction constitutionalism – 1997 Constitution benefited Thaksin – 2006 Coup threw out 1997 Constitution and replaced it with the 2007 Constitution – 2008 attempt to reverse constitution sparked protests Patron-Client Ties – Network of personal relations dominates Thai politics Military - Military intervenes to preserve democracy and as a highly organized entity within a weak state often plays a decisive role in politics Bureaucracy – Bureaucracies power has been diminished versus extrabureaucratic actors Parliament and Political Parties – Choosing Prime Minister and Cabinet very important – Parties tend to be moderate, non-ideological – Thai Rakh Thai/People’s Power Party/ PhueaPhandin Party – populist party trying to create national constituency – Democratic Party oldest Thai Party – Chart Thai’s future in jeopardy because of corruption charges against BanharnSilapa-archa Party Jumping and Vote Buying
4. Democratization Authoritarian rule and attempted democratization alternate Conflict between conservative state, military, and technocratic elite (championing bureaucratic autonomy from social forces) against the rising extrabureaucratic business class and provincial forces (championing power for the parliament, political parties, and electoral majorities) 8 in 10 Thais were satisfied with democracy before 2002 and 2006 coups Great expectations for democracy have led to extraconstitutional means to change less than ideal democratic outcomes that generate gridlock Societal tolerance for rule by law as opposed to rule of law Search for ideal institutions leads to endless debate over constitutional arrangements
5. Economic Development Thailand won Vietnam War because of American military aid producing infrastructure in a left untouched by the regional conflict 1970s-1980s 7% growth; 1987-1996 10% growth; inflation rate under 5%; 1997 Crises halts growth; IMF policies not conducive to recovery; Thaksin stimulus implemented in 2001; Growth slowed after coup in 2006 and concerns about sufficiency economy Low population growth rate has favorably contributed to developing human capital Rules expanded foreign investment during boom but also hurt during the 1997 contraction
6. The Thai State Until 1980s, Thailand was viewed as a bureaucratic polity Since student led revolt in 1973, legislature, political parties and business associations have been strengthened Rural electorates assertiveness has disturbed Thai elite, who are concerned about vote buying, party politics, and organized protest against state development plans NGO = ngo = stupid Elites remain suspicious of majoritarian democracy Thai state is subordinate to key client-patron relations Thaksin’s undermining of these relations contributed to his removal from power The monarchy is the key to state stability – king, state, and religion
7. Foreign Policy Relations with the U.S. have become more equal focusing on joint military operations; suppression of narcotics trade, international crime, and terrorism; refugee issues; educational exchange; and the peace corps – Movement on Free Trade Area has been slowed by coup against Thaksin and U.S. desire for the country to return to democracy Lao-Thai relations have improved as bridges have been built over the Mekong Thai Cambodian relations framed by conflicts over historic sites and national identity – AngorWat and KhaoPreahVihear Relations with Burma have been improved though border skirmeshes cause occasional tensions ASEAN free trade area has attempted to strengthen interregional relations Thailand has benefited from engaging China in ASEAN + 3; but serving China’s markets has also caused environmental problems Thai treatment of Muslim citizens has caused strains with Muslim countries
8. Conclusion Thailand has transformed from a state dominated by a military bureaucracy Thailand’s conservative elites still have considerable power to control events, though these technocrats, generals, and royals will challenged by attempt to establish democracy A mostly appointed assembly will be challenged by non-conventional tactics and a weak parliamentary democracy will cycle between crises threatening the return of military rule YingluckShinawatra is presently Prime Minister and is paving the way for her brother’s return. This action could reignite tensions between Red and Yellow shirts