Modeling Coupled Natural-Human Systems in the Big Thicket and Beyond

1. Modeling Coupled Natural-Human Systems in the Big Thicket and Beyond Michael Monticino, University of North Texas, Institute of Applied Sciences (NSF Biocomplexity in the Environment CNH BCS-0216722)

2. Overview • Context • Objectives • Study Sites • Models • BT Land-Use Values • Applications

3. Context • Human social system and ecosystem dynamics traditionally treated as if they progressed independently • Ecologists studied pristine areas to determine LC succession dynamics • Sociologists studied population shifts from rural to urban LU as driven almost exclusively by socio-economic forces • Now accepted that social systems and ecosystems must be coupled to be fully understood • Moved beyond merely descriptive studies of the mutual interactions • Advances in complex systems modeling and increased computational capacity make possible substantive investigations

4. Context • Dynamics of LU change occur within context of individual and cultural value systems • LU practices are part of people’s ethnic identity • Hunting, fishing, and medicine gathering are part of collective identities of indigenous peoples • Small-scale horse and cattle ranches in Texas are more attributable to identity values than economic imperatives • Impact of values-driven LU/LC changes on ecosystems have a feedback effect on social dynamics • Collective effects of values-driven decisions on one another and on the landscape may frustrate the very values on which they are based Ecosystem Effects Human Decisions External Factors LU Change

5. Project Objectives • Gain insight into the role of cultural values in LU decisions • Study emergent dynamics of LU/LC change derived from CNHS models • Informed through ethnographic methods • Identify essential trends and sensitivities of dynamics to cultural values • Models applied to study sites that vary along set of natural and social gradients • Identify general features of social-ecological LU/LC dynamics • Provide stakeholders and policy makers with modeling tools to anticipate consequences of LU/LC decisions

6. Study Areas • Elm Fork Trinity River Greenbelt Corridor, North Texas • Big Thicket National Preserve, Southeast Texas • Caparo Forest Reserve, West Venezuela • Upper Botanamo River basin, East Venezuela • Marina Baixa catchment, Alicante, Spain

7. Study Areas • All sites characterized by accelerating LU/LC change • Similar pressures on social systems and ecosystem services

8. MB NT BT CF UB dry wet Precipitation UB/CF MB BT NT developed developing Economic UB/CF MB NT/BT developed developing Political-Legal Infrastructure MB NT BT CF UB local cosmopolitan Cultural Study Areas • Sites lie at varying points along cultural, climatological, economic, and political gradients • Provide base points to synthesize effects of these gradients on LU/LC change • Representative of social-ecological dynamics of similar places around the world

9. Model Structure • Three main components • GIS-based development potential map • Natural systems model • Multi-agent model • MAM developed from focus group sessions, surveys and structured interviews • Values represented in statistical decision analysis framework

10. 1999 1988 Development Potential Map • Scores the development suitability of each parcel of undeveloped land • Determines relative suitability of each development type • Factors • Distance to the nearest road (major or minor), • Distance to infrastructure • Population density within a specified radius around the parcel • Density of each development type within a specified radius • Natural and mandated impediments • Parameterized through historical LU data • Implemented for NT and BT areas

11. Coupled Models • Natural system model represents land-cover transition, hydrological and wildlife habitat response • Emphasis in North Texas on hydrology and municipal infrastructure demands • Habitant focus in Big Thicket study

12. Economic Model Economic Model (Land Price Trends) (Land Price Trends) Residents Residents Owners of Owners of Undeveloped Undeveloped Land Land Protest/Not Protest/Not Elect Elect Elect Development Development Government Government Government Proposal Proposal Natural System Natural System Sell Sell Model: Flooding, Water Model: Flooding, Water Hold Hold Quality, Recreation, Quality, Recreation, Wildlife Metrics Wildlife Metrics Regulatory Regulatory Residential, Commercial, Residential, Commercial, Government Government Industrial Developer Industrial Developer Agent Agent Approve, Approve, Type of Type of Modify or Modify or Development Development Deny Deny Proposal Proposal Development Development Potential Potential Model Model Coupled Models • Human system based on multi-agent model • Captures essential stakeholder interactions and decision processes • Provides flexible structure for investigating growth management strategies and sensitivity of outcomes to variations in stakeholder values

13. Multi-Agent Model • Agents represent stakeholders influencing land-use decisions • Agents chose actions that best conform to their values as modeled by multi-attribute utility functions • Interactions and feedback • Between classes of stakeholders, and between natural and human systems • Natural system feedback can affect change in agent value structure

14. Agents Classes and Types • Agent classes characterized by available actions and basis for selecting actions. • Landowner: individual owners of large parcels of land suitable for residential/commercial/ industrial development • Commercial Landowner: Organizations such as timber companies that own large parcels of undeveloped land • Developer: Residential/commercial/industrial developers • Homeowner (citizen): Resident representatives that can protest proposed developments and initiate changes in government • Government: Agents that have final regulatory control of development decision • NGOs and NPS: Initiate and sustain protection of undeveloped land and habitant • Agent types within a class characterized by different value structures that potentially lead to different actions

15. Agents in Big Thicket • Stakeholders surveyed • Timber companies • NGOs and NPS • Owners of 100 acres or greater tracts of undeveloped land in Hardin County • Objective was to elicit circumstances and values that might lead to LU/LC changes in region • Responses validate anecdotal accounts obtained through separate interviews with local conservation activists and real estate agents

16. Agents in Big Thicket • Timber Management • Temple Inland • Molpus Timber Management • Sustainable Forest Technologies • International Paper • Louisiana Pacific (did not participate) • Trend towards smaller, more dispersed holdings • Timber economic model primary driver in decisions • View themselves as”better…neighbors than somebody that was selling land for real estate.” • NPS and NGOs • National Park Service • The Nature Conservancy • BTA • The Conservation Fund • Primary expressed concern is minimizing habitant fragmentation • Interesting contrast with timber company representatives and landowners about pace of development threatening region

17. Landowners in Big Thicket • Surveyed owners of 100 acres or greater tracts of undeveloped land in Hardin County • Sample represented 30% of these landowners • Portion of survey focused on what factors may influence landowners to sell their land for development • Variety of uses • Primary residences, second homes, hunting, timber harvesting, cattle ranching and investment

18. Landowners in Big Thicket • Two broad groups of LU attitudes and values • Those who express a deep attachment to land that they have lived on for a long time or that has been in their family for generations • Those who value land primarily for its economic potential • Wealth oriented landowner typically acquired land for timber harvesting or resell speculation • Tradition oriented landowners tend to be older, having bought or inherited land decades ago • Those who inherited their properties express hope of keeping land in the family. • Common statement is “[land is] part of my heritage since way before the turn of the century. A homestead for future generations meant to be in the family”

19. Landowners in Big Thicket • Many tradition-oriented landowners express genuine concern about preserving open spaces, wildlife habitat and landscape integrity • And yet, same people that would “love for area to stay as is” also welcome convenience of new roads and stores and accompanying residential development • Contradictory view appears to arise from resignation to perceived progress and pragmatism • “City people in rural areas are just part of life” • “[development is better] than trailers sitting around beautiful Thicket” • “people should be able to do what they want with their property free from lots of government restrictions”

20. NPS NGO Sell Hold Buyer Category Sell Hold Buyer Category Propose Purchase BT Decision Flow Timber Company Economic and Tax Model Landowner Agent Homeowner Agents Government Agents Developer Agent Development Preservation Potential Map

21. Model Applications • Primary focus on effectiveness of growth management strategies in slowing development • Creation of open-space preserves. • Typically, land is purchased based on ecological concerns, or when land fortuitously becomes available • Alternative is to also target land based on landowner values • Leverage land-use values of neighboring landowners to effectively protect more land from development. • Dispersed open-space strategy preserves more undeveloped land than a concentrated strategy • Strategies that purchased parcels from tradition-oriented landowners were more effective in slowing development than purchasing from wealth-oriented landowners • Utilization of human-value map • Key sensitivities of model • Land-price assumptions • Landowner values • Spatial interactions between landowners

22. Model Applications – City of Denton • High density, mixed-use development proposed on northeastern edge of Denton’s ETJ • Denton had choice of annexing area to gain planning and zoning oversight or losing control of development on city’s northern boundary • Residents feared higher taxes with little perceived benefit • City officials countered that proposed development would lead to destruction of rural lifestyle residents believed they were protecting • Worked with Denton to adapt model to demonstrate potential development patterns • Impact on area surrounding development • Impact on municipal services demand

23. City of Denton Scenario • Test parcel set to high density development compared to open-space preserve • 35 years out • Dynamics of future development

24. Results • Development of parcel had small effect when viewed across entire study area • However parcel’s development has pronounced local effect • Significant increased level of high-density development

25. Big Thicket Model • Potential map, agent model and habitant model are completed • Performing sensitivity analysis • Integrating models • Developing scenarios to study effects of LU trends on habitant